Tuesday, 12 March 2019
The EUR / USD pair on Monday was able to show the growth
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fundamental review
The EUR / USD pair on Monday was able to show the growth, despite pressure from the dollar and weak statistics from Germany.
After the publication of ambiguous statistics on the US labor market, the dollar was fairly stable, and on the eve of the American trading session, it was able to strengthen its position on the publication of good statistics on retail sales. After an unexpected decline of 1.6% in December, in January, sales increased by 0.2%, while the forecast was 0.0%. The growth of the base index, which does not include car sales, was even more significant, + 0.9%, while the forecast was + 0.4%.
Unexpectedly, the support of the European currency was provided by news from the UK. On Monday, Teresa May flew to Strasbourg to conclude additional treaties with the EU, which were agreed upon by the negotiating groups on both sides. The European Union, as promised, did not make concessions on the issue of changing the agreement reached in November 2018, but agreed to conclude a number of additional documents that provide the British side with additional legal guarantees regarding the regulation of the Irish border and allow the British side to leave the EU economic influence if the parties will not sign a trade agreement. The signing of additional agreements strengthened Teresa May’s position before the parliamentary vote, which should be held tonight. The British pound sterling and the European currency reacted to this news with a growth that was continued today.
On Tuesday, the focus of investors are on events related to Brexit. Voting in parliament, which is due tonight, will have a very strong impact on the market. In addition, a significant impact on trading today may have data on the consumer price index in the United States.
The upward correction continues to develop on the chart, after a very strong decline in quotations on Thursday. After a long intraday consolidation, buyers managed to break through resistance at 1.1250, discovering new opportunities for the further development of the rolling up movement. But now sellers have significantly intensified their actions and are actively trying to return prices to the level of 1.1250. If they succeed, we will receive a strong intraday reversal signal, which will make relevant the scenario with a decrease in quotations in the direction of the level of 1.1170.
· Resistance levels: 1.1250, 1.1300, 1.1350.
· Levels of support: 1.1200, 1.1170, 1.1100.
The main scenario is consolidation below 1.1250 and decrease to 1.1170.
An alternative scenario is price fixing above 1.1250 and rise to 1.1300.
With the background of events occurring in the UK, market uncertainty has increased dramatically. Therefore, today we recommend to refrain from trading.
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