Monday, 11 March 2019
Overview of 4-hour charts GBP/USD, USD/JPY
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EUR / USD
On Monday, the EUR / USD pair is trading with moderate growth, playing news on the US labor market, published on Friday.
Data on the number of newly created jobs turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations, which locally puts pressure on the dollar. But, most experts still believe that the growth potential of the EUR / USD pair will be limited due to the continuing difference in interest rates in the US and Europe. The ECB on Thursday announced the postponement of a possible rate hike by the beginning of 2020. While the Fed does not rule out the possibility of resuming the rate hike cycle in 2019, if the United States avoids a downturn in an economy that spans other regions and countries.
Another factor against the growth of the EUR / USD pair is weak statistics from Europe. This morning data was published from Germany, which again disappointed the market. The volume of industrial production in January fell by 0.8%, while experts expected the figure to grow by 0.5%. The data for the last month were revised for the better, from -0.4% to + 0.8%. Worse than forecast were data on the trade balance, fact 18.5B, forecast 21.2B.
Today in the US in the spotlight will be data on retail sales. Experts expect that after a decline in December 2018 by 1.2% in January, the changes will be 0.0%.
The corrective wave, which has already reached its closest target, is at the level of 1.1250. At this level, we can expect the formation of a reversal within which the currency pair will be able to resume its downward movement with targets at the levels of 1.1200 and 1.1170. Only if the price fixes above 1.1250, one can count on the growth of quotations to 1.1300.
Our recommendations: shorts from 1.1250.
GBP / USD
The pair GBP / USD finished trading on Friday with a decline of 0.53%, and today it has updated its two-week minimum of trading.
The British pound remains under pressure, waiting for the British Parliament on Brexit issues tomorrow voting. Since Teresa May failed to achieve concessions from the EU, she will be forced to put to the vote practically the same draft, which was rejected by Parliament a month earlier.
The agency Bloomberg on the eve reported that the parties failed to reach a compromise on any issue. On the eve Theresa May held a telephone conversation with Juncker, who also did not succeed. And today, The Times, referring to high-ranking officials, reported that tomorrow's Brexit vote could be rescheduled in order to extend negotiations with the EU.
Having the background of the continuing uncertainty, the British pound sterling will most likely remain under pressure and will trade in the coming days with a decline if positive news does not appear on the market regarding a possible resolution of the Brexit issue.
On the chart, the pound continues to decline and so far we see no signs of a reversal of this price movement. The level of 1.3000 should be considered as the nearest resistance and the nearest entry points to short positions. Intraday targets for declines can be designated at levels 1.2950 and 1.2900.
Our recommendations: shorts from 1.3000
USD / JPY
A pair of USD / JPY started a new trading week with growth, due to the recovery of the dollar, whose index is now trading in the green zone, and some improvement in the stock markets. Most indices are now trading sideways, so the demand for the yen, as the main currency of funding, remains low.
The further vector of the currency pair will directly depend on the dynamics of the dollar. If the US currency keeps the positive trend today (such probability is very high), the USD / JPY currency pair will continue to recover. Great attention should be paid to the data on retail sales in the United States at 12:30 (GMT).
On the chart, after a reversal at the level of 110.80, a bullish wave is developing, which may soon be continued. The nearest strong resistance level is at 111.60, which is the main intraday target for the price movement. Shorts will be relevant in case of breakdown of support at 111.00
Our recommendations: longs from 111.00
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