Thursday, 7 March 2019

Overview of 4-hour charts GBP/USD, USD/JPY

Posted by Anonymous at 14:04 Labels: , ,
EUR/USD

On Thursday, in anticipation of important news from Europe, the EUR/USD pair is traded without much change.
Later on, the data on Eurozone GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2018 will be announced. But, even more important for the market will be the ECB meeting and the speech of the head of the bank Mario Draghi, both of which will be held today. The market does not expect from the regulator changes in the main parameters of the implemented monetary policy, but some experts are concerned that the ECB may announce the adjustment of 2019 plans and change the forecasts of economic growth in the region. Such decision may lead to a significant weakening of the European currency, especially against the background of strong positions held by the dollar in the foreign exchange market currently.
Interest in the dollar remains high, as the market now has virtually no other alternatives. Economies of the world's leading countries are facing serious difficulties, which weaken the positions of national currencies. At the same time, the U.S. economy continues to show good growth rates, opening up new prospects for strengthening the dollar index.
On the chart so far we receive signals indicating the continuation of downward movement. The yesterday’s correction was not convincing. At the nearest resistance level of 1.1320, buyers faced serious difficulties and had to retreat. Accordingly, we still mainly expect the movement development in the direction of the 1.1200 level, but given the possible increase in volatility, one should not rule out the retest of 1.1340 before resuming the downward movement.
Our recommendations: sell from 1.1340
GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is also experiencing serious difficulties with attempts at resuming upward movement. Last week investors fully played all the positive news that came to the market, and, as the new vote in the UK parliament approaches, they are fixing their long positions.
Reuters agency has recently conducted a survey of economists on the possible market reaction to the results of the vote, which should be held on March 12. Most of the interviewed experts believe that the British currency may lose up to 9% of its current value and fall to the 1.1200 level vs. the dollar in case of approval of the exit from the EU without a deal scenario. But experts still hope that the parties will be able to avoid the implementation of the worst-case scenario and find a compromise solution to create a free trade zone, which may locally provide some support to the British currency. Therefore, it is expected that the GBP/USD pair will be traded around 1.3200 in late March .
Currently, the market is increasingly inclined to believe the fact that the Brexit date will be postponed, so that the parties could settle all the disputes.
On the chart, the downward wave slowed down its development pace, but the initiative is still on the sellers' side. The 1.3200 level is still the main benchmark for the majority of bidders, which limits the potential for upward price movement during the last days. Therefore, as long as the price remains below this level, the scenario of quotations decreasing towards the 1.3100 level and lower is still more likely to be realized.
Our recommendations: sell from 1.3200
USD/JPY

USD/JPY has been trading downwards in recent days, despite the strong positions of the dollar. The main reason for the correction is the situation on the stock market, where the main indices continue to demonstrate decline. Against the background of continuing uncertainty in the U.S.-Chinese trade relations and growing concerns related to the development of the world economy, the U.S. stock market finished all three trading days of this week in the red zone. Experts say that most of the investors are optimistic, but are cautious, fearing an unexpected failure of negotiations.
Therefore, as long as stock markets show declining, opportunities to resume bullish movement on USD/JPY will be limited.
On the chart we get signals of the continuation of the corrective wave. Having been fixed below 111.80 the price continues to move downwards and the next target for buyers can become the level of 11.40. But should not exclude the worst scenario of possible quotes reduction to 110.80. The bullish movement should be expected to continue after the fixation above 112.00.

Our recommendations: sell from 112.00



1 comment :

Subscribe to: Post Comments ( Atom )