Monday, 11 March 2019
Gold
Labels:
fundamental review
Gold ended the trading week on a positive note, registering an increase of almost 0.97% at the end of Friday. The main driver of the bullish movement was the US dollar, which lost in price about 0.3% due to the background of a very controversial report on the US labor market.
According to the data presented for the month, the unemployment rate in the United States fell from 4.0% to 3.8%, while the average wage growth in February was 0.4% against the forecast of 0.3%. But investors were very disappointed with the data on the number of newly created jobs in the non-agricultural sector, only 20 thousand against the forecast of 181 thousand. Publication of these data again reinforced market concerns about the prospects for the development of the US economy.
In this regard, this week investors will pay even more attention to the publication of statistical data from the United States, assessing the real state of the country's economy. Already on Monday, an important report on retail sales for January will be presented, which may have a very strong impact on the market. After an unexpected decline in December at 1.2%, in January, experts expect zero changes in sales. Also on Monday, it is planned to present the US budget for 2020, which was postponed by Trump because of the shutdown at the beginning of the year.
On Tuesday, the focus of the entire market will be another vote in the UK Parliament on the Brexit plan proposed by Theresa May. In the United States, data on the CPI for February occupy an important place in the economic calendar for this day.
On Wednesday, the focus will be on durable goods orders and producer price index.
On Thursday, investors will carefully study a large block of important statistics from China, which includes data on investments in fixed capital, industrial production and unemployment. In the US, pay attention to the data on sales of new housing.
On Friday, among the most important US news we should focus mostly on the data on industrial production for February.
On the chart, the price exited from the price channel 1284.00-1291.00, in which trading took place over four days. The exit took place upwards, which is a strong bullish reversal signal. Therefore, in the coming days, we should expect further development of the rising wave and the price going up and testing the level of 1330.00. The change of priorities will occur after the breakdown of support at 1280.00.
Resistance Levels: 1299.00, 1310.00, 1320.00;
Support levels: 1296.00, 1290.00, 1285.00.
The main scenario - growth to 1310.00.
Alternative scenario - price fixing below 1296.00 and a decline to 1290.00
Locally, gold receives strong support due to the weakening dollar. The chart also received a strong reversal signal, which indicates a high probability of the developing of a bullish movement. Therefore, longs remain relevant. The nearest entry point is to look at 1296.00
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