Wednesday, 20 March 2019

EUR / USD

Posted by Anonymous at 11:47 Labels: fundamental review

The EUR / USD currency pair was able to close the third day in a row with positive trend, but yesterday most of the day trading took place in a fairly narrow price range, with the prevailing side trend.

The restraining influence on the price had another batch of inconclusive statistics from Europe. The ZEW index of economic sentiment in Germany maintained a positive dynamic and over the month rose from -13.4 to -3.6 points, but still remains in the negative zone, which indicates the prevalence of pessimistic sentiment in German business. The index of current economic conditions, on the contrary, continues to decline, for the month dropped from 15.0 to 11.1 points, which is the minimum value of this indicator since December 2014.

The main support to the price is still provided by the American dollar, which is under pressure from the expectations of the outcome of the FOMC meeting. The inconclusive data of internal statistics reinforces investors' fears that the Fed may change its position to a softer one. Bank Of America even suggested that the regulator might cut the rate by 25 bp. against the background of a possible decrease in forecasts for the pace of economic development, inflationary pressure and the number of rate increases in 2019 and 2020.

Fed policy is the main factor determining the dollar vector, so today's FOMC decision and comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell can initiate the development of a new trend not only for EUR / USD, but also for other instruments involving the US currency. Now the market is dominated by pessimistic expectations regarding the outcome of the meeting and the prospects for the movement of the US dollar.

On the graph for the day the situation has not changed. At lower time intervals, the bull trend continues to develop, which so far does not show signs of weakness. The level of 1.1350 became a certain obstacle for the price, but the bulls continue to increase upward pressure on it, which significantly increases the likelihood of a breakdown of this mark. This will be a good signal of further development of the upward movement with a short-term goal at the level of 1.1400.

· Resistance levels: 1.1350, 1.1400, 1.1450.

· Levels of support: 1.1335, 1.1300, 1.1245.

The main scenario - growth to 1.1400

An alternative scenario - the breakdown level of 1.1325 and a decline in the area of 1.1300.

The currency pair maintains a positive dynamics, against the background of the absence of reversal signals on the chart. Therefore, intraday preference is still to be given to longs, which can be already searched at current prices.