Friday, 1 March 2019

EUR / USD

Posted by Anonymous at 11:24 Labels: ,


EUR / USD currency pair today is trading near the lows of the Thursday’s trading session. The pressure on the currency pair is now exerted by the US dollar, whose index is being traded with a result of + 0.17%. Intermediate data on US GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 were the main driver for strengthening the dollar during yesterday's trading. According to the report, compared with the previous quarter, growth slowed from 3.4% to 2.6%, but the final figures fully coincided with the expectations of experts. At the same time, the GDP deflator grew by 2.0% against the forecast of 1.7%. Investors rather positively assessed the data presented, expecting that maintaining the current growth rate will allow the Fed to continue the process of a moderate increase in interest rates. But, quite quickly, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell refuted these assumptions once again stating that the regulator intends to take a pause in the matter of raising rates. Powell noted the good state of the economy, but he complained about the growing risks associated with the slowdown in the EU and China, as well as the high political uncertainty associated with trade negotiations between the US and China, and Brexit.
Today, the market expects a day full of important economic news, so trading volatility is likely to be high. Already published data on retail sales in Germany in January. The report came out very positive, a growth of 3.3% was recorded, against the forecast of + 1.9%. Later today, data on the labor market and PMI of the German manufacturing sector will be presented. Also today will be presented data on the EU labor market and preliminary figures for the consumer price index in the euro  zone in February.
In the US, the focus will be on PMM manufacturing sector from ISM and data on personal consumption expenditures.
On the chart, after another unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above 1.1400, a reversal signal is formed, within which we can expect the development of a bearish wave with the main target 1.1320. The change of priorities can occur only in case the price fixes above 1.1400, which will mark the further bullish wave towards the level 1.1500.
 Resistance Levels: 1.1380, 1.1400, 1.1500.
 Levels of support: 1.1360, 1.1320, 1.1280.
The main scenario is a decline to 1.1320.
An alternative scenario - consolidation above 1.1400 and growth in the direction of 1.1500.

The news background remains mixed, while the chart is mainly dominated by signals indicating a downward price movement. Therefore, preference is given to short positions. Entry points should be sought in the range of 1.1380-1.1400.

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