Friday, 1 March 2019

EUR / USD, GBP / USD, USD / JPY

Posted by Anonymous at 12:37 Labels:

EUR / USD
A pair of EUR / USD on Friday is trading in a narrow range, near Thursday's lows. The pressure on the price is primarily provided by the US dollar, whose index shows an increase of 0.15%.
Yesterday, the US currency was supported by interim data on GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2018, which turned out to be slightly better than market expectations. Comments by Finance Minister Stephen Mnuchin also supported USD. In an interview, Mnuchin commented on the negotiations with China, noting some progress. But investors first of all paid attention to Mnuchin’s remarks that there are still a lot of unresolved issues to sign a trade agreement.
Today, news from Europe can have a strong influence on trading. Good retail sales data has already been published in Germany, fact + 3.3%, forecast + 1.9%. Later, statistics on the German labor market and PMI data of the manufacturing sector of this country will be made public. Also today, reports will be submitted regarding the Eurozone as a whole. The focus here should be given to data on the labor market and the consumer price index for February.
In the US, the focus will be on personal consumption expenditure statistics, as well as ISM manufacturing sector PMI.
After the next unsuccessful attempt of the currency pair to consolidate above the level of 1.1400, a downward correction is developing on the chart, which may continue today. Bears increase the pressure on the level of 1.1360, which may provoke a breakthrough of this supporting level and the development of the bearish wave in the direction of the level of 1.1320.
Our recommendations: shorts from 1.1380


GBP / USD

The pair GBP / USD continues to decline as a downward correction emerging in the market.
The current pressure on the price is primarily due to the influence not of fundamental but rather technical factors. Over the course of four days, the currency pair showed a very strong growth and managed to update the highs of more than 7 months of trading. The breakdown of the level of 1.3300 provoked the closure of long speculative positions on the instrument, limiting the possibility for further price growth.
At the same time, the news, which at the beginning of the week were the main driver of growth, are currently fully absorbed by the price and do not have a particular impact on trading anymore. A certain pressure on the price could have a message about the resignation of the Minister of Agriculture of Great Britain, who thus expressed his disagreement with the possible delay of Brexit. This scenario most experts now consider as most probable, since Teresa May is unlikely to achieve significant changes in the terms of the agreement with the EU in the nearest future. If on March 12 the parliament does not approve its Brexit plan on March 14, the question of deferring Brexit will be put to a vote.
Today, the publication of PMI data for the UK manufacturing sector may have a short-term impact on trading.
The bearish correctional wave is developing on the chart, and in the coming days will most likely get its continuation. As a key resistance now it is worth considering the level of 1.3300, which limited the opportunities for quotes growth on Thursday. The immediate target for rollback is the level of 1.3180.
Our recommendations: shorts from 1.3280




USD / JPY

The pair USD / JPY shows a very strong growth having the background of the strengthening dollar and the growth of global stock indices.
The dollar index responded with growth to the publication of GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2018. The same data had a positive effect on the dynamics of the yield curve of the treasury government bonds and the stock market of the USA. The yield on Japanese debt, on the contrary, has been in a negative area for several days in a row. A significant increase in the yield spread on the securities of the two countries provides strong support to the quotes, pushing the USD / JPY pair up.
The bull wave is actively developing on the chart and today can be continued. The nearest strong resistance level is only around the level of 112.60, so the intraday price growth potential remains quite high. Since there are no reversal signals on the chart, preference should be given to longs that can be searched already at the level of 111.80.

Our recommendations: longs from 111.80.



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