Thursday, 28 February 2019
USD/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/USD
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EUR/USD
On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair is trading with a slight increase, winning back yesterday's losses. But the overall market situation remains very uncertain, so at any moment the growth wave may be replaced by a fall.
Against the background of uncertainty in trade relations between China and the U.S., and the lack of new drivers for the movement, investors can not decide on the further direction of the movement.
There is very little important statistical information published this week in Europe. Only preliminary data on GDP and inflation in France was presented today. This data matched the forecasts, so it did not have a significant impact on the trading.
The central event of the day should be the publication of interim data on the assessment of the U.S. GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2018. Experts expect a decline in growth rates compared to the data demonstrated in the third quarter of last year from 3.4% to 2.6%. Accordingly, the data at the forecasted level or lower may exert significant pressure on the dollar, pushing the EUR / USD pair up.
Also, statements of FOMC representatives, Bostic, Kaplan and Harker, may have an impact on the dollar. Recently, investors have been studying very carefully the signals from the Federal Reserve representatives, assessing the possible directions of the monetary policy implementation.
The chart shows a bearish correction after testing the resistance at 1.1400. Locally, the currency pair found support just above the level of 1.1360, but a stronger support range is located between 1.1340-1.1350. Therefore, in the first half of the day we expect a developing of the bearish trend with the above mentioned targets, where a reversal formation can be formed. In the medium term, the growth of quotations remains a more likely scenario.
Our recommendations: buy from 1.1350
GBP/USD
After four days of almost constant growth, the currency pair GBP/USD on Thursday consolidates around the 1.3300 level.
Investors have fully played the Brexit news, which were published earlier this week. At the maximum values of more than 7 months of trading, investors are now partially fixing their long positions, which is the main reason for the development of the corrective movement.
The main driver of growth were reports that both the UK and EU have almost ruled out the possibility of uncontrolled Brexit. In addition, British Prime Minister Teresa May did not rule out the possibility of postponing Brexit to a later date. Now the market considers this scenario as the most likely. According to Deutsche Welle, Berlin and Paris are in favor of postponing Brexit - a joint statement on these results of the meeting was made in the French capital.
Today this situation received comments by the Prime Minister of Ireland L. Varadkar. According to him, the Brexit date may be postponed from March 29 to June or July. These statements have become another confirmation that the option of postponing the Brexit date is now considered as the main by senior officials in the EU and the UK alike.
The chart still shows a clear structure of the upward price channel, which indicates the continuation of bullish dynamics of the movement. On the other hand, the price has now reached a very strong resistance area above 1.3300. The probability of the corrective wave development from these levels is very high, so as long as the quotes are kept below 1.3300 the scenario of the corrective wave to 1.3200 development will remain the most likely.
Our recommendations: sale from 1.3300.
USD/JPY
The volatility of USD/JPY has increased significantly in recent days. This may be due to the large number of important geopolitical news in the market, which have a very strong impact on the exchanges and, respectively, the USD/JPY pair.
Today, the currency pair is correctively declining after a very strong growth the day before. The reason for the development of the correction wave is the weak statistics published today in China. The presented data showed that the economic activity of production and non-production sectors of the economy continues to decline, which reinforces investors' fears about the slowdown in the growth rate of the Chinese economy. The stock markets immediately reacted to the publication of this data and now the main world indices continue to be traded in the red zone. Demand for the yen is growing, putting pressure on the pair USD/JPY.
Today the monetary policy was commented by one of the representatives of the Central Bank, Suzuki. He noted that the regulator intends to continue conducting a fairly soft monetary policy to achieve the target inflation rate of 2%. At the same time, he sees no reason for its further softening.
On the chart, despite the growth of volatility, there is still a predominantly horizontal direction of movement. The range of trading can be indicated by levels 110.40-111.10. Accordingly, all trade decisions are best made near the boundaries of this range. Since the chart continues to develop sideways, one should open positions inside the price channel.
Our recommendations: buy from 110.40 and sell from 111.10.
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