Tuesday, 26 February 2019
USD / JPY, GBP / USD,EUR / USD
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EUR / USD
On Tuesday, the EUR / USD currency pair continues to trade in a narrow range amid the absence of important economic news on the market, which could serve as a driver for a trend movement.
In the economic calendar of Europe today there are no important economic data, so the main influence on trading will probably be provided by news from the UK, where another Brexit vote should take place today. The European economy remains very vulnerable due to the influence of external factors, so the bad news from the UK can greatly weaken investor interest in euro.
The dollar is now also under pressure. The dollar index is sensitive to reports about possible breakthrough in trade negotiations between China and the United States. For many months, the dollar has acted as a major asset for many investors to protect against trade risks, and now, amid a warming of relations between the two countries, the US currency is under pressure.
Another deterrent for investors is the Fed policy, which has undergone major changes in recent months. From statements about maintaining high pace of interest rate increase, the Fed has moved to softer rhetoric, and took a pause to assess the state of the economy and the degree of influence on non-external negative factors. Today, the Fed chairman will submit a semi-annual report on the activities of the regulator to the US Senate Banking Committee. Powell's comments can have a very strong impact on all world markets, so on the eve of such an important event, investors are very passive and not in a hurry with purchases of the American currency. The soft rhetoric of the Fed chief can seriously weaken the dollar.
On the chart, the range 1.1320-1.1360 continues. Accordingly, until we see the price fixing behind one of the borders of the range, you should not count on the formation of a directional trend movement. Taking into account the current situation in recent days, the scenario with the exit of prices from the sideways upwards is still a priority. The breakdown of the level of 1.1360 will make the next target for growth the level of 1.1400, and in the future 1.1500. But if the sellers manage to push the support at 1.1320 to the fore, the southern version of the movement will be released with the target at 1.1200.
Our recommendations: longs from 1.1340
GBP / USD
The pair GBP / USD shows growth with the background of reports of a possible Brexit postponement. HSBC analysts report that if the parliament does not approve the May project on Brexit tomorrow, an informal vote may be taken to determine the further action plan and here a greater number of parliamentarians support the Brexit deferred scenario.
Also, the increase in the pound was facilitated by reports on the Labor Party’s support of the scenario with a re-run of the Brexit vote. The party leader Jeremy Cobrin informed. Corbin is expected today to submit an appropriate amendment to parliament. But most experts still believe that the likelihood of such events remains very low. Most representatives of the parliamentary do not support this initiative and are unlikely to approve these amendments.
In addition to important domestic political news, investors today will closely monitor the presentation of the inflation report and comments on this topic from the head of the Bank of England, Carney.
On the chart, the pound shows a tendency to grow and is now trying to gain a foothold above 1.3150. This is a good signal in favor of the further development of the bullish scenario with a new short-term target at the level of 1.3200. This scenario is now seen as the most likely to be implemented. The option with a decrease in quotations will again become relevant after fixing the currency pair under local support at 1.3140.
Our recommendations: longs from 1.3140
USD / JPY
The pair USD / JPY yesterday managed to get out of the outset 110.60-110.90 due to a decrease in demand for defensive assets, which include the Japanese yen. But today, sellers managed to win back a large part of yesterday’s losses, thanks to the exacerbation of the geopolitical situation and increased uncertainty on the market, that increases interest in the yen as usually.
Yesterday, positive expectations remained on the market regarding the successful completion of trade negotiations between the United States and China. Optimism to investors added Trump's Sunday tweet, on the possible postponement of the introduction of higher duties on Chinese goods. Having this background, stock indexes showed growth, which always reduces the demand for yen, which is one of the main funding currencies on world markets.
But later, Trump quickly won back the situation and stopped all speculations on this topic. The deal between the US and China may not take place. Immediately stock markets went from growth to decline. Spoiled investors' appetite for risk also the escalating military conflict between India and Pakistan. Accordingly, now the main global indices are trading in the red zone, which contributes to the strengthening of the yen and other protective assets.
In addition to geopolitical news, the spotlight today will be Jerome Powell’s report to the Senate Banking Committee, which could have a very strong impact on the USD / JPY pair.
The chart demonstrate uncertainty. On the one hand, the price exited from the range 110.60-110.90, which is a signal of the continuation of the local bull trend. On the other hand, a reversal signal “false breakdown” of the level of 111.10 was subsequently formed, which held back the price increase. Accordingly, in this scenario, we can expect the development of a range movements with the immediate target at 110.60.
Our recommendations: stay off the market
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