Thursday, 28 February 2019
GOLD
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On Wednesday, gold lost in price a little more than 0.5% against the strengthening dollar, the index of which ended the trading day with an increase of 0.15%.
The US dollar began to strengthen after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking in Congress, announced that a plan would soon be announced to complete the balance reduction process. The balance now contains about 4 trillion dollars assets. Gold always reacts very painfully to changes in the dollar exchange rate, since it is the American currency that is always used to nominate the price of gold. As a result, the yellow metal was under pressure.
But today the market situation may change due to the influence of a whole series of important geopolitical and economic factors. First, weak data on business activity in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors of the Chinese economy was published this morning. The stock market immediately reacted with decline, that always provokes a growth in demand for safer assets such as gold and yen.
Secondly, the market continues to receive quite positive news about the course of trade negotiations between the United States and China. In particular, last night, the White House trade representative, Robert Lightheiser, announced that the United States so far refused to threaten to increase duties on March 1 from 10% to 25%. Investors see this as a signal of an early agreement between the parties, which can put a lot of pressure on the dollar, which was previously considered as the main protective asset against trading risks.
Third, interim data on US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2018, which are delayed due to the suspension of government work at the beginning of this year, may become another factor of pressure on the US currency today. Experts predict the release of weaker data, and the dollar can respond with a decline.
The bear correction is actively developing on the chart. Yesterday, the price pushed through an important intermediate support level of 1325.00, opening up new opportunities to reduce quotes. Now the price is supported by the level of 1320.00, but since we do not see a strong price reaction to this mark, we can very likely expect a continuation of the bearish movement with targets in the range of 1315.00-1317.00, where reversal signals can be formed.
Resistance Levels: 1325.00, 1335.00, 1340.00;
The levels of support: 1320.00, 1315.00, 1310.00.
The main scenario - a decline in the range 1315.00-1317.00
Alternative scenario - consolidation above 1320.00 and growth to 1330.00
The news background on the market can now be described as neutral, but the downward trend locally dominates on the chart. For this reason, preference in trading in the first half of the day should be given to the short positions that can be searched for from the level 1323.50
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