Thursday, 21 February 2019
Gold
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technical analysis
On Wednesday, gold tried to continue its upward movement, but at the end of the day, buyers lost all their advantages and as a result, the trading was finished in a slightly negative zone. The main factor of pressure on the yellow metal was the US dollar, which, after the publication of the FOMC meeting minutes, strengthened to all major world currencies. At the same time, protocols did little to surprise the market. The meeting participants signaled the suspension of the rate hike cycle until the situation with the impact of negative external and internal factors on the US economy will be clarified. Probably, some investors found positive information that the meeting also expressed an opinion on the possible resumption of the rate increase process in 2019 if the economic indicators meet the necessary requirements and forecasts of the Fed.
Also this week investors will monitor the trade negotiations between the US and China. Today, ministerial-level officials must join the negotiation process, and many investors still hope that the parties will be able to make progress. One of the signs of successful progress of the negotiation is Trump’s rather positive comments, which do not exclude the possibility of extending the terms of the truce after March 1.
In the United States itself, one of the main topics for discussion remains the confrontation between Congress and Donald Trump. While currently investors are quietly watching what is going on, if the aggravation of domestic political struggle will continue the market reaction can be very strong. Trump intends to declare a state of emergency in the country to attract additional funds to finance the construction of the wall on the border with Mexico. Today, Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi said that lawmakers will quickly respond to these actions and adopt a resolution to block the presidential decree.
Today is one of the most active days of this week in terms of publishing important statistical information. Investors will monitor preliminary PMI data for manufacturing and services sectors in Europe and the USA. Also today, the minutes from the last meeting of the ECB will be made public, and in the US statistics on sales in the secondary housing market, basic orders for durable goods and indices from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia will be presented.
On the chart, we see that the price has met serious resistance at the level of 1350.00. Now a downward correction is developing from this mark, which can be continued as the nearest strong support for the price is only at the level of 1325.00. In the longer term, the yellow metal retains good opportunities for continued growth with a new target at the level of 1370.00, but this scenario can only be considered after the price fixes above 1350.00. Now we are waiting for correctional movement.
Resistance Levels: 1350.00, 1355.00, 1360.00;
Support levels: 1340.00, 1325.00, 1315.00.
The main scenario - a decline to 1325.00
Alternative scenario - consolidation above 1350.00 and growth to 1360.00
On the graph, signals indicating the development of a correction wave are amplified. This scenario is now supported by signals of fundamental analysis. Therefore, today we give preference to short positions that can be initiated near the level of 1345.00.
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