Monday, 25 February 2019
EUR / USD
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The EUR / USD pair cannot determine the trend and spent the last three trading days in a narrow price channel, with borders at levels 1.1320-1.1360.
The main reason for the formation of the channel is the fact that now both currencies are under some pressure after the publication of internal statistics, as well as the influence of other factors.
In Europe, the focus of investors is on German data. Statistics of recent months shows a significant slowdown in the growth rate of the main economy of the European Union, which can have a strong negative impact on the situation in the EU as a whole. This morning, German Finance Minister O. Stolz said that the country's economy is still moving in an uptrend, even though in the near future growth rates will be much lower than in similar periods of previous years. At the same time, among the main risks for the German economy, Stolz noted the Brexit problem.
The dollar is mainly influenced by the uncertainty associated with the US-China trade negotiations, which continue in Washington, as well as domestic statistics, which indirectly indicate a possible slowdown in US economic activity. Although the Fed's notes published last week showed that the regulator's policy in 2019 may be tougher than investors had expected earlier.
During the week it is the internal statistics data that will have the main influence on the further price vector.
On Monday, no major events in the United States and Europe are expected.
On Tuesday, the speech of the British Prime Minister Theresa May could have a strong influence on the currency trading (the exact time of the speech is still unknown). On the same day, a report on the construction sector and an index of consumer confidence will be presented in the United States, and at 18:00 Moscow time, Jerome Powell will speak to the US Senate Banking Committee.
The presentations of the ECB representative Kere and the head of the Bundesbank Weidmann should take place on Wednesday. In the US, there will be much more important news. At 1:15 pm London time, employment data from ADP will be presented. Later, a report on production orders and pending sales in the real estate market. And on the same day there will be another speech by the Fed Chairman in the relevant committee of the US Congress.
On Thursday in Europe, in focus will be preliminary data on the consumer price index in selected EU countries. In the US, among the most significant events are the speeches of the FOMC members Bostic, Harker and Kaplan and the publication of a report on GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2018.
On Friday, a large block of statistics will be presented in both Europe and the USA. In the first half of the day, the report on the German labor market, data on the PMI of the services sector in this country and in the EU as a whole, the report on the EU labor market and preliminary data on inflation in the region will have an impact on trading. In the US, you should pay attention to the report on expenditures and incomes of individuals, as well as the index of business activity of the manufacturing sector from ISM.
On the graph, the situation in recent days has minimum changes. At higher time intervals, the bearish trend with the immediate ефкпуе at the level of 1.1200 remains dominant. At lower intervals, a side movement develops with borders at levels 1.1320-1.1360. At the same time, in recent days, the structure of the side movement has been significantly changed and now the scenario with the release of the currency pair from consolidation upwards is more likely.
Resistance Levels: 1.1360, 1.1400, 1.1450.
Levels of support: 1.1320, 1.1260, 1.1200.
The main scenario - growth to 1.1400
Alternative scenario - consolidation below 1.1320 and decline to 1.1260.
The general background in the market remains neutral, but there are prerequisites for the resumption of upward movement within current framework. Therefore, intraday preference should be given to buying the from the intermediate support levels of 1.1320 and 1.1340.
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