Tuesday, 19 February 2019

EUR / USD

Posted by Olga Gorinina at 10:33 Labels:

On Monday, due to the absence of important economic information on the market, as well as reduced trading volatility, due to the US stock exchanges were closed, the European currency was able to slightly strengthen its position against the dollar. But this morning, sellers restored the status quo due to the strengthening of the dollar against all G7 currencies in Asian trading.
The EUR / USD pair remains very much dependent on the behavior of the dollar, since the European currency is now virtually devoid of support factors and with all other factors being equal, can only move down. Increasing economic difficulties, domestic political problems, the risks associated with Brexit and possible trade restrictions from the United States, seriously reduce the euro's ability to develop corrective upwards movements.
In the current situation, the only support factor for the EUR / USD pair could be the weakness of the US currency, which is now becoming vulnerable, amid growing pressure from domestic economic and political factors, as well as the influence of geopolitical news. The statistics published last week, unexpectedly for many, turned out to be much weaker than forecast expectations, which led to an active discussion of a possible slowdown in US economic growth. Another blow to the dollar was the US-Chinese trade negotiations that ended on Friday. Both sides positively assessed the outcome of the meeting, and Trump hinted at the possibility of extending a trade truce before concluding a bilateral agreement between the countries. As a result, the dollar has lost a significant number of investors who previously viewed it as a protective asset against trading risks. The internal political situation in the United States remains difficult.  The repetition of government shutdown was avoided, but the confrontation between Trump and Congress continues.
Today, the dollar remains the focus of investors' attention, especially in the light of the fact that large investors are returning to the market from the US after a long weekend. Today at the beginning of the European trading session we must watch the economic statistics from Germany, where the ZEW institute should publish indices of current economic conditions and economic sentiment.
On the graph for the day the overall picture has not changed dramatically. At higher time intervals, the downward trend remains dominant, within which we can expect the update of the local minimum at 1.1200. At lower time intervals, a correctional movement is developing, which today can continue in the direction of the 1.1350 level, where reversal in the direction of the global down trend can resume.
 Resistance Levels: 1.1315, 1.1350, 1.1400.
 Levels of support: 1.1250, 1.1200, 1.1170.
The main scenario - growth to 1.1350.
Alternative scenario - consolidation below 1.1300 and decrease to 1.1250


In the medium term, the downward movement remains a priority, but short-term on the chart there are prerequisites for the continuation of the upward correction. The pressure of fundamental factors on the currency pair has also weakened, so short-term long positions can now be quite relevant. Entry points can be found already near 1.1300.

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