Friday, 11 January 2019
Trading signals
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trading signals
At the end of the week, we summarize the first full five trading days of the year. Throughout the week, the market sold the dollar in all directions. The main driving force behind the price action was a reduction in hike- rate forecast by the Fed, which seems consistent with the will of the market, given higher risks for global growth in 2019 and global economic slowdown. Today, the focus is upon the general data of the week, reports on US inflation (CPI index).
EUR / USD - the fight for 1.1515 continues, weekly close in focus
Events on the main pair of FX market continue to evolve interesting way. After the traders have managed to break above $1.1500, the most interesting things are just beginning. Although the pair indicated a local maximum in the area 1.1565, the bulls did not sufficiently fortify at the new levels. They need to act decisively and defend the mark 1.1515, which in the new conditions becomes a new dividing line between buyers and sellers. Yesterday the market adjusted to the nearest support 1.1475-1.1490, these are the bulls closest rears and it was here that yesterday new bullish volumes came to the market, which returned quotes to the levels of 1.1515. Today is the last trading day of the week, and the market will close the weekly candle. In this regard, we will expect increased volatility and the struggle for the mark of 1.1515. With the release of the most important statistics trading day promises to be interesting. Immediate support is located at previous levels - 1.1480-1.1475 and further in the area 1.1430 – deep bulls rear zone. We maintain positive expectations for this market and continue to believe that the breakthrough of 1.1515 sets the stage for the launch of a longer and more extensive sale of the US dollar in the coming months.
Trading recommendations - limit orders in $ 1.1475- $ 1.1480 area
GBP / USD- the market could not overcome the level of 1.2800
After a four-day hard struggle to break through 1.2775-1.2800 and transfer the quotes into new price range, the buyers of the British currency are retreating. Thus, the British pound failed take advantage of the weakness of the dollar and relieve technical oversold conditions- in this case, this time the fundamental background turned out to be stronger than technical factors. On Friday, in early European trading, GBP / USD rolled back to 1.2720, and the pair continues to look vulnerable to further decline. Support begins at 1.2720 and continues to $ 1.2660. We recommend to stay out of the market and wait for the weekly candle close.
Trading recommendations - out of the market
Gold on the chart forms the flag pattern
The gold market continues to trade within the range $ 1296- $ 1280. On Thursday, quotes found local support in $ 1286 area, and we can carefully assume that the market is creating a graphic pattern "flag". This is the continuation pattern and in this case the continuation of the upward dynamics. Level 1297-1300 still acts as the main psychological resistance. We maintain medium-term positive expectations for the gold, however, we still expect a deeper correction before the real 1300 assault. We are waiting for a corrective pullback to open longs on more attractive and safe levels, or a signal to buy may come once the market consolidates above the 1300 mark.
Trading recommendations - limit orders to buy in the area of $ 1286, $ 1277
AUD / USD - storming resistance 0.7200
Correctional upward impulse continues on the Australian dollar market. Today in the Asian session, quotes came close to the level of 0.7200. Fixing above this mark will send quotes to the 0.7300 zone. We expect increased volatility, today associated with the release of statistics on US inflation. Under these conditions, only two four-hour candles close above 0.7200 can serve as a signal for opening longs with a target of 0.7300. We have to be careful with this market today.
Trading recommendations – careful longs after fixing above 0. 7200
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