Wednesday, 9 January 2019
EUR / USD
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fundamental review
After a slight correction on Tuesday, EUR / USD currency pair resumed its upward movement today. As before, the main growth driver is USD dollar, which is gradually losing ground to all G7 currencies with the exception of the Japanese yen. From the beginning of the day, the dollar index lost about 0.2% in price, while the EUR / USD pair managed to strengthen by 0.15%.
In Europe, there is still no important economic news, as the dollar will remain the main engine of movement in the market. The US currency is currently influenced by two main factors: the US-China trade negotiations in Beijing, and the Fed policy.
Earlier the news broke that the negotiations that were previously planned to end on Tuesday extended to Wednesday, which significantly increases investors' optimism on the substantial progress of trade agreement. This is a factor of pressure on the dollar, since earlier the American currency was perceived by investors as protection against the risks associated with international trade.
The second main theme of the day remains the Fed policy. Recently, many representatives of the Federal Reserve have significantly softened rhetoric, which lowers market expectations for higher rates in 2019. Today in the United States there will be published minutes from the December meeting of the FOMC from which investors hope to get additional information on the future intentions of the regulator.
On the chart, the price remains in the sideway range 1.1275-1.1430, but bulls are gradually increasing the upward pressure on the upper boundary of the horizontal channel. Which makes the most likely scenario for an increase in quotes at least in the direction of 1.1500, and possibly higher. In the medium term, the price fixing above the level of 1.1480 can give a strong impetus to the further movement of the currency pair up with targets at the levels of .1600 and 1.1800.
Our recommendations: longs at 1.1435 and lower 1.1400
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