Friday, 28 December 2018

FX TS

Posted by Olga Gorinina at 13:52 Labels:
Markets is trading last Friday in 2018, and the new year is just around the corner. Holiday trading was far from quiet, and more subtle market conditions created the possibility of increased volatility and wild swings in equities. There was a good reason for volatility, since the year is coming to an end, with uncertainty in the air, shifting into 2019.
 EUR / USD - strengthened to local maxima in the 1.1460 area
After Christmas, Euro quotes were fixed above the level of 1.1365- a very positive signal that the bulls retain control over the market. The nearest local resistance in the area of 1.1405 was broken through and the market consolidated above 1.1430. Strong resistance in the area of 1.1460. Most likely, the last days of the outgoing year, the market will hold in this range.
Trading recommendations - out of market
GBP / USD British currency weakness persists
The weakness of the US dollar led to some recovery in the British currency market. However, strategically and tactically, the market situation has not changed much. Recently GBP/USD approached the first resistance around 1.2660. It should be noted that this level is supported by a downtrend resistance line, an additional technical deterrent restraining the recovery of the market. Of course, the British currency market is oversold, but one should not expect a recovery of this market under current conditions.
Trading recommendations - out of the market
Gold - gold continues the rally, however the profit taking is possible  
The American currency again came under strong pressure against the background of the influence of a number of internal factors connected exclusively with the problems of the USA.
First, in the United States, a number of federal departments are still suspended and, judging by the latest data, the budget crisis in the country may be delayed for quite a long time. Yesterday, the Senate refused to consider the draft budget and postponed consideration of this issue on January 2. Trump himself said that he did not intend to make concessions, despite the further suspension of government work, he would wait for a positive decision on the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico for an unlimited amount of time.
A serious blow to the dollar yesterday was published statistics on consumer confidence index CB. Experts expected to see the indicator at the level of 133.7 points, after 136.4 (revised upwards from the initial 135.7) a month earlier, but the actual figure was only 128.1 points, which is the minimum value of this indicator since July 2018. Recall that last week the US Federal Reserve lowered forecasts for economic growth rates of the rate hike in 2019, so now the US economic data is becoming even more important for bidders because the Fed’s future actions and investor expectations will directly depend on their dynamics.
In Europe, the news yesterday was not very much. The ECB report did not contain new information, so it did not have a strong influence on trading yesterday. Today in Europe there are also no important economic publications, so the further dynamics of the EUR / USD pair will primarily depend on the behavior of the dollar.
On the chart, we see steady growth in conditions of uptrend move. New maximum levels were indicated in the $ 1277 zone, the nearest local support in the $ 1266 area.
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