Wednesday, 5 December 2018

FX TS

Posted by Olga Gorinina at 11:50 Labels:


EUR / USD
In this market, positional fight continue around 1.1360, while, as we expected, the market moves into consolidation within a narrowing triangle. All bulls attempts to fix  above 1.1360 are successfully repulsed, buyers are dropped from this level. This is largely due to the unclear position regarding the US dollar. Week began with strong sales of US currency, after which on Tuesday global market interest in risk declined. Yesterday, US markets experienced a strong sale, the demand for the dollar as a defensive asset rose sharply. The dollar index returned to annual highs, above the 96.90 mark.
In the middle of the week, global market is influenced by two strategic factors — investor uncertainty about the particular results of the US-China trade negotiations. Recall that the enthusiasm of the markets on Monday was caused precisely by the positive perception of the negotiations at the G20 summit. Secondly, the new introductory from the Fed last week, Powell announced the readiness of the American regulator to move to a more restrained monetary policy in 2019. On Wednesday, the head of the Fed was to speak before the congress and justify its position before the congressmen, but this event was postponed. Today, a low-active trading day is expected in the United States at low volumes. On this background, equities may partially recover some of yesterday's losses, and the dollar might get under relative pressure.
For EUR / USD support is located in the area of 1.1320-1.1300. However, in the current market conditions, we recommend staying  out of the market. Shorts are also dangerous.
Trading recommendations - out of the market
GBP / USD
Yesterday, amid a sharp strengthening of the dollar, the market broke through support at 1.2720 and fell to the zone of August lows around 1.2660. As we expected, players use every upward pound momentum to sell it at more interesting prices. Today, the market is recovering, starting from this mark, but now it is 1.2720 resistance. Further development of the situation is not certain.
Trading recommendations - out of the market
AUD / USD
The sudden transition of the dollar to growth sent quotes of this market to support in the 0.7285 area. This is a strong and stable area that may be interesting for opening long positions.
Trading recommendations - longs in the 0.7285 zone
Gold
After gold quotes reached the October highs, traders recorded a portion of the profits and the market displayed a local pullback to the nearest support level of $ 1,233. This is a relatively weak level of support, but for now the bulls retain control of this zone. We can take risky long positions in this area, but be ready for the market to pass lower. The first valid market support is located in the $ 1,227 area.
Trading recommendations - longs in the region of $ 1233 and further in the zone of $ 1227

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