Friday, 28 December 2018
FX TS
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Markets is trading last Friday in 2018, and the new year is just around the corner. Holiday trading was far from quiet, and more subtle market conditions created the possibility of increased volatility and wild swings in equities. There was a good reason for volatility, since the year is coming to an end, with uncertainty in the air, shifting into 2019.
EUR / USD - strengthened to local maxima in the 1.1460 area
After Christmas, Euro quotes were fixed above the level of 1.1365- a very positive signal that the bulls retain control over the market. The nearest local resistance in the area of 1.1405 was broken through and the market consolidated above 1.1430. Strong resistance in the area of 1.1460. Most likely, the last days of the outgoing year, the market will hold in this range.
Trading recommendations - out of market
GBP / USD British currency weakness persists
The weakness of the US dollar led to some recovery in the British currency market. However, strategically and tactically, the market situation has not changed much. Recently GBP/USD approached the first resistance around 1.2660. It should be noted that this level is supported by a downtrend resistance line, an additional technical deterrent restraining the recovery of the market. Of course, the British currency market is oversold, but one should not expect a recovery of this market under current conditions.
Trading recommendations - out of the market
Gold - gold continues the rally, however the profit taking is possible
The American currency again came under strong pressure against the background of the influence of a number of internal factors connected exclusively with the problems of the USA.
First, in the United States, a number of federal departments are still suspended and, judging by the latest data, the budget crisis in the country may be delayed for quite a long time. Yesterday, the Senate refused to consider the draft budget and postponed consideration of this issue on January 2. Trump himself said that he did not intend to make concessions, despite the further suspension of government work, he would wait for a positive decision on the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico for an unlimited amount of time.
A serious blow to the dollar yesterday was published statistics on consumer confidence index CB. Experts expected to see the indicator at the level of 133.7 points, after 136.4 (revised upwards from the initial 135.7) a month earlier, but the actual figure was only 128.1 points, which is the minimum value of this indicator since July 2018. Recall that last week the US Federal Reserve lowered forecasts for economic growth rates of the rate hike in 2019, so now the US economic data is becoming even more important for bidders because the Fed’s future actions and investor expectations will directly depend on their dynamics.
In Europe, the news yesterday was not very much. The ECB report did not contain new information, so it did not have a strong influence on trading yesterday. Today in Europe there are also no important economic publications, so the further dynamics of the EUR / USD pair will primarily depend on the behavior of the dollar.
On the chart, we see steady growth in conditions of uptrend move. New maximum levels were indicated in the $ 1277 zone, the nearest local support in the $ 1266 area.
Thursday, 27 December 2018
FX TS 27.12.2018
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US stocks rose sharply on Wednesday, rebounding from new annual lows, the kind of Christmas gift from equity markets. DOW industrial index gained by more than a thousand points in one trading day, which is about 5%, and this is the largest daily increase in a year. Nevertheless, the reaction of the FOREX market is restrained somewhat, as after Christmas the volumes remain much lower than the average levels
EUR / USD - euro remains strong in the thin market
Over the last active trading days before Christmas, European currency has traveled from a low of 1.1300 to a high of 1.1480. Then, profit taking and tactical pullback sent market quotes to the first support area - 1.1360. The fact that the quotes fixed above this important mark is a very positive signal confirming the bulls maintain control over the market, and only low volumes keep the market from re-storming the local maximums of 1.1460. The nearest local resistance is in the area of 1.1405. Most likely, the last days of the outgoing year, the market will hold in this narrow range. However, we recommend staying out of the market as non-market risks are pretty high.
Trading recommendations - out of market
GBP / USD British currency weakness persists
The weakness of the US dollar led to some recovery in the British currency market. However, strategically and tactically, the market situation has not changed. GBP / USD is stuck before the first resistance around 1.2660. It should be noted that this level is supported by a downtrend resistance line, an additional technical deterrent restraining the recovery of the market. Of course, the British currency market is oversold, but one should not expect a recovery of this market under current conditions.
Trading recommendations - out of the market
AUD / USD - Australian currency has reached local minima 0.7040
On Wednesday, Australian currency reached a three-month low - 0.7040 zone. Our expectations that the mark of 0.7090 will keep the market did prove to be correct. The breakthrough of this significant level sent the market to a completely new price range. The last time the market visited these levels was October 2018. A breakthrough at this level will send quotes down to the area 0.6990.
Trading recommendations –Sale with pass 0.7040
Gold - gold continues to rally, the market marked new highs in 1277 area
On Wednesday, gold lost some of its gained positions amid a stronger dollar and the rally in US equities. At the same time, in the medium term, gold retains very high chances for a continuation of positive dynamics on the background of growing geopolitical and economic uncertainty in the world.
In the US, two main topics are now focused- the suspension of the government’s work, as well as the continuing criticism of President Trump against Fed Chairman Powell. Both factors support the gold market.
Recently, the topic of the possible resignation of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has been discussed more and more on the market. Trump called the policy of the Fed the main problem of the US economy, and the increase in interest rates caused the collapse in the US market, which last week showed the worst results in more than 10 years of trading.
On the chart, we see steady growth in the context of an bullish trend. New maximum levels were indicated in the $ 1277 zone, the nearest local support in the $ 1266 area.
Trading recommendations - longs in the $ 1266 as market pullbacks
Thursday, 20 December 2018
FX TS
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Fed meeting has passed and is left behind, and it can be said with confidence that the decision has had an impact on the market. While US stocks continued to expand their decline to new annual lows, US dollar initially decided to return to the rally, but then was sold against risk avoidance. Market focus upon the meeting and the decisions of the Bank of England.
EUR / USD
Interestingly, despite the high volatility after the Fed meeting, the market situation has not changed much. High volatility quickly ended, the growth of the US dollar was quickly leveled. As a result, the market provided another good, non-risky opportunity for opening long positions and joining the upward movement when it short-term fell to 1.1365. Today, in early European trading, the pair approached a maximum around 1.1430, which is quite a strong zone of resistance, but given the recent pullback, we can expect that market brake through this mark. In this case, the next resistance zone will be in the area of 1.1460. Immediate support is located in 1.1400.
Trading recommendations – careful longs around 1.1400
GBP / USD
The weakness of the US dollar led to some recovery in the British currency market. However, strategically and tactically, the market situation has not changed much. On Monday, GBP / USD approached the first resistance at 1.2660. It should be noted that this level is supported by a downtrend resistance line, an additional technical deterrent restraining the recovery of the market. Of course, the British currency market is oversold, but one should not expect a recovery of this market under current conditions.
Trading recommendations - out of the market
AUD / USD
On Wednesday, the pressure on the Australian dollar has intensified strongly, and this is reflected in the chart. The pair broke through the level of 0.7165, a strong support zone that held back the market decline during the week. The massive decline in the Australian currency brought market quotes to 0.7100, where bulls are trying to organize a new support.
Trading recommendations - out of the market
Gold
High volatility at the end of the Fed meeting and profit taking scared buyers and led to profit taking on the gold market. As a result, the market fell into the area of the nearest support 1241, where it was necessary to place limit orders for purchase. The market provided another good and safe opportunity to open long positions. In European trading, the market strengthened to the level of 1250 and continues to look positive. However, we cannot recommend opening long positions at these maximum levels, the market is close to maximum levels on the last days of the last active trading week of the year.
Trading recommendations - out of market
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Wednesday, 19 December 2018
FX TS
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The markets slowed down on Wednesday; as always, traders slow down before important strategic decisions — the meeting and the Fed's forecasts. The dollar is still weaker, with a significant part of the price action due to profit-taking and leveling positions.
EUR / USD
The growth of the European currency continues on the weakness of the US dollar. On Wednesday, the market consolidated above the level of 1.1365 and received an additional growth impulse; today the pair outlined highs in 1.1405 area. This is the upper limit of the wide sideway range and a strong resistance area. Perhaps a good idea would be to close part of the long positions at these marks and expect the market to react to the decisions and comments of the Fed. We expect increased volatility in US trading.
Trading recommendations - out of the market
GBP / USD
The weakness of the US dollar led to some recovery in the British currency market. However, strategically and tactically, the market situation has not changed. On Monday, GBP / USD approached the first resistance around 1.2660. It should be noted that a downtrend resistance line, an additional technical deterrent restraining the recovery of the market, supports this level. Of course, the British currency market is oversold, but one should not expect a recovery of this market under current conditions.
Trading recommendations - out of the market
AUD / USD
During the trading session on Monday, the Australian currency was able to gain a foothold above the level of 0.7160, thereby confirming our expectations that the market intends to stay above this mark. Support in the 0.7200 zone, a possible overcoming of this mark, will send quotes to the 0.7240 area.
Trading recommendations - purchases after fixing above 0.7200
Gold
Sale of equities supported the gold market and helped the bulls to overcome the $ 1,241 mark. Yesterday, the market displayed a new local maximum around $ 1,251 area. Despite this, we still believe that the market has not overcome the resistance of 1249, which means the situation has not changed. Support is again in the area of 1243, long positions can be considered only after overcoming and fixing above the highs of 1249, or after rolling back to the first support zone of 1243.
Trading recommendations - buy in the area of 1243 and when consolidating above 1248
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Tuesday, 18 December 2018
FX TS
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As we approach the end of the year, a clear deterioration in market sentiment becomes apparent: US markets fell to new lows of 2018. Investors still expect another Fed rate hike tomorrow. We expect that already today the market activity will begin to decline.
EUR / USD
Yesterday it was quite an interesting trading day for the European currency. After the pair dropped to a three-week low last Friday, Monday showed that the market has no desire to update the lows and move out of the wide sideway range 1.1270-1.1400. On Monday, we observed a technical reversal, when the market rebounded from support 1.1275 and strengthened to the area of 1.1360. Now the whole intrigue is whether the market has the strength to overcome the strong resistance 1.1360 / 1.1365, or whether the current upward momentum will be used by the market to boost sales. The nearest market support is located in the area 1.1335 / 1.1330 and further in the area of 1.1300. To open longs is now premature, we need to wait for the market to brake through mark 1.1365, as for shorts we are not considering this type of action at all. Also it is necessary to take into account the upcoming Fed meeting on Wednesday, which on the one hand is already taken into account by the market, on the other will affect the activity and the volatility of trading session.
Trading recommendations - longs after quotes consolidates above 1.1365
GBP / USD
The weakness of the US dollar led to some recovery in the British currency. On Monday, GBP / USD approached the first resistance around 1.2660. It should be noted that a downtrend resistance line, an additional technical factor restraining the recovery of the market, supports this level. Of course, the British currency market is oversold, but one should not expect a recovery of this market under current conditions.
Trading recommendations - out of the market
AUD / USD
During the Monday trading session, British currency was able to gain a foothold above the level of 0.7160, thereby confirming our expectations that the market intends to keep above this mark. Support in the 0.7200 zone, a possible overcoming of this mark, will send quotes to the 0.7240 area.
Trading recommendations – longs after fixing above 0.7200
Gold
Equities sale-off supported the gold market and helped the bulls overcome the 1241 mark. Gold is again at the maximum levels 1248. Now support is again in the 1243 area, long positions can only be considered after overcoming 1248 highs, or after rolling back to the first support zone of 1243.
Trading recommendations - buy in the area of 1243 and when consolidating above 1248
Monday, 17 December 2018
Christmas Fairy Tale
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Dear Clients!
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FX TS
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We are at a quiet start in this last full trading week of the year. Market trading conditions will soon deteriorate sharply, and we do not expect a return to normal trading volume until the second week of January. The main economic indicators of the current week are related to trade in the Eurozone and the consumer price index, as well as data on the US housing market.
EUR / USD - the market held in the range of 1.1300-1.1400
On Friday, the main instrument of the FOREX market, EUR / USD currency pair reached a three-week low around 1.1265. Sellers managed to activate stop orders, located under 1.1300 mark, but the market did not succeed to firmly establish itself under this level. The proximity of the weekend and profit taking pulled back quotes higher to a mark 1.1300. Today, in the early European trading session, the pair is trying to break through the first resistance zone 1.1315. Thus, the pair still retains a wide sideway range 1.1265-1.1415 / 1.1430. However, it is too early to do analytical conclusion, the current rollback can be used to resume shorts. Only after overcoming the mark of 1.1360-1.1365 will we be able to talk about the full return of positive sentiment back to the market. Sales at current levels are also quite dangerous, we will be watching the level of 1.1315.
Trading recommendations - out of the market
GBP / USD - negative market sentiment persists
The negative mood in the British currency market persists. During the previous week's trading, the British currency failed to break above 1.2665, and thus the market is trading within a narrow range within 1.2665-1.2480. The market starts the new week in the middle of this range 1. 2590, from where movement can develop in any direction.
Trading recommendations - out of the market
AUD / USD - all attention to the level of 0.7160
The market fell to six-week lows, the zone around 0.7160 mark. This is a fairly strong area, and the bulls are trying to organize a defense zone here. In this area, Fibonacci 61.8 expansion is located from the last growth impulse 0.7020-0.7390. It is still quite difficult to predict how events will develop further, a correctional impulse may form from this level, and in the event of a breakthrough, the market can move into a completely new range. However, given the oversold conditions of Australian dollar, we tend to cautiously open long positions at these levels.
Trading recommendations - purchases in the 0.7160 area
Gold - the market has moved to a new range of 1233-1238
On Friday, the market fell to the first significant support around $ 1,233, creating almost ideal conditions for opening long positions at these levels. We mentioned earlier that in the zone one need to place buy limit orders. On Monday, in early European trading, the market gained to the level of $ 1238. Here the resistance area starts, in the new conditions $ 1238 is a zone of strong resistance. Let's see how events will develop, overcoming this mark will confirm bulls strength in this market. However, with this aim, they may have difficulties, we can see a pullback and a test of the new support around $ 1233.
Trading recommendations – careful longs in the $ 1233 area
Friday, 14 December 2018
FX TS
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EUR / USD - sellers aim at stops located below 1.1300
The market once again failed to gain a foothold above the significant mark of 1.1360 and after the trading day in this zone, the quotes rushed down again. In early European trading, the pair is trading near the 1.1300 level - the lower limit of the sideway range of 1.1300-1.1430, the market has been in this zone for three weeks. If sellers manage to break through to stop orders concentrated below 1.1360 and activate them, the market will move to 1.1266 and further to the zone of two monthly lows 1.1210.
Trading recommendations - sales when passing the 1.1300 mark
GBP / USD - market uncertainty remains
The market pullback in the middle of the week did not lead to a change in the strategic picture in this market. The market could not overcome the level of 1.2660 - the nearest resistance. At the same time, the political uncertainty around Brexit persists.
Trading recommendations- are out of market
AUD / USD - the market finally broke through the level of 0.7200
On Thursday, there was a sharp and decisive reversal in the Australian dollar market. AUD / USD pair finally broke through the level of 0.7200 and moved to the new price range. Thus, the rising trend momentum was broken by the market. The medium-term outlook for the Australian dollar has changed to a negative trend. Immediate support is in the 0.7260 area.
Trading recommendations - sales
Gold - tests the first support of $ 1238
On Friday, the market continued its moderate decline. The players broke through the local resistance of $ 1241 and dropped to the $ 1238 zone, the main support level. If sellers can activate the stops concentrated here, there is a chance that gold can go to $ 1233 for a short time.
Trading recommendations - purchases in the $ 1238 zone and lower in the $ 1233 area
Wednesday, 12 December 2018
FX TS
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In the foreign exchange market, the trading of the last days are characterized by moving back and forth, as we are approaching the yearly close and the growth of volatility is logical. The US dollar was sold on the expectation that the Fed would weaken the normalization of its policy in 2019, but the market started buying USD dollar again on the background of risk avoidance and a return the trade contradictions between the US and China back to the agenda
EUR / USD
Although we witnessed high trading volatility in EUR / USD market on Tuesday trading session, the situation in this market has not changed much over the past trading day. Technically, there was a tactical interception of the initiative by the sellers, as bulls were dropped from 1.1360 amid political instability in France. However, for three weeks, the pair is trading in the range of 1.1400-1.1305, and only a breakthrough of the strategic support line 1.1300 will mark the change in the mood of this market and the transition from consolidation to more declining dynamics. In this regard, we will observe the level of 1.1300, which is an important level of support, and there are good chances for a rebound from this level in the area of 1.1360. Today session contains important reports that point to the level of inflation in the United States. The consumer price index (CPI) will be published. Eurozone will present data on industrial production.
Trading recommendations – careful longs around 1.1300
Gold
On Friday, the market displayed the maximum level in five months, a mark around $1249. Immediately after that, the market moved to the expected correction, and falling in the course of three sessions, the market dropped to the first local support zone, 1241-1243. The question now is whether the market will be able to stay at this point or will the corrective decline continue to the level around 1238.
Trading recommendations - longs in the area of 1239-1240
GBP / USD
The surge in political uncertainty and Brexit issue has led to strong sales of the British currency and a sharp decline in prices. As a result, 1.2725 support level and then the four-month minimum around 1.2665 were broken. GBP/USD fell to a level of 1.2523, thus moving to a completely new range. Negative sentiment on this market persists, however, the market is now oversold and longs seems somewhat dangerous now. We must wait for a pullback.
Trading recommendations - out of market
AUD / USD
Over the course of three trading sessions, the Australian dollar is trying to return above the 0.7200 mark. This mark was an important support, but now strong resistance. At the same time, the technical prospects of the Australian dollar are complicated by a complex fundamental background.
Trading recommendations – out of the market
Tuesday, 11 December 2018
Monday, 10 December 2018
FX TS
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If the market was expecting any additional evidence of a weakening of the Fed’s policy, the received Friday information can support this sentiment, the US employment report was disappointing. In the last weeks of the year, a clear wave of US dollar decline is being formed. However, this week all market attention will be focused on events in the UK.
EUR / USD
On Friday's weakness of USD dollar the pair moved to growth. Quotes gained to the level of 1.1430 - this is a strong resistance zone. The pullback will send the market to local support zone 1.1400. However, the main support level is located around 1.1365.
Trading recommendations- purchases 1.1360 and 1.1400
GBP / USD
High volatility persists in GBP / USD market. The pair is trading around 1.2715. The nearest resistance is located around 1.2775. Support level is the lower limit of the formed range, a mark of 1.2650. It is still difficult to say anything defined on the British currency, the risks for this market are too high, we remain out of the market as this week will be volatile for this market.
Trading recommendations - out of the market
AUD / USD
The breakthrough of support level 0.7340 happened on the background of USD dollar gains as the market decline to the area 0.7200. Now trading is going around this mark. This is the main market support from which we can expect a local pullback, the market is oversold. However, the immediate prospects for the Australian currency have deteriorated on the background of another round of deterioration in political and economic relations between the US and China. We expect an increase in volatility.
Trading recommendations - outside the market
Gold
On Friday, the market was able to update the five-month highs and strengthened to the area of 1250. In the near future, we can expect a correction and a rollback of the market to the area of the recent resistance of 1243.
Trading recommendations - longs in the area of 1243
Friday, 7 December 2018
FX TS
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On Friday we can say that the optimism of the trade deal between the US and China turned out to be short-term, although it helped to compensate for some risk this week, although we are not sure that this will be enough to prevent US stock market from falling deeper. Friday's calendar includes German industrial production, GDP in the Eurozone, and a monthly employment report from US non-farm jobs. Trading session will be volatile and interesting.
EUR / USD
The pair keeps consolidating sentiment trying to gain a foothold above 1.1360. 1.1330-1.1300 remains strong support area and we believe that medium-term demand is located in this area. Careful longs might be interesting near the nearest support 1.1360 and lower in the demand zone 1.1330-1.1300 if the market happens to dip lower. We expect an increase in volatility in on the background of the publication American labor market data.
Trading recommendations- longs 1.1360 and below 1.1330
GBP / USD
High volatility persists in the GBP / USD market for three days. The pair formed a wide channel within 1.2657-1.2837. The nearest resistance is located at 1.2775. Support - the lower limit of the formed range, a mark of 1.2650. While it is difficult to say anything defined for the British currency, the risks for this market are too high, we remain out of the market.
Trading recommendations - out of the market
AUD / USD
The breakthrough of support 0.7340 happened amid USD dollar gains dollar as the market continued to decline to the area of 0.7200. Now this is the main market support from which we can expect a local pullback, as the market is oversold. However, the immediate prospects for the Australian currency have deteriorated after another round of risks on political and economic relations between the US and China. We expect an increase in volatility.
Trading recommendations - cautious purchases in the 0.7200 area
Gold
Gold quotes are traded within a narrow range of $ 1233- $ 1240. It is interesting that yesterday the local maximum was updated, the quotes touched the level of 1244. This is a positive signal. However, the bulls seem to have not enough strength to break through the maximum line, and most likely we will see sellers trying to reset the market from $ 1233. In this case, the bulls will seize the initiative in the $ 1229 area and this will be a great opportunity to open long positions at interesting and safe prices. The markets focus on data on the US labor market and the reaction of the US currency.
Trading recommendations - limit orders in the 1229 zone
Wednesday, 5 December 2018
FX TS
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EUR / USD
In this market, positional fight continue around 1.1360, while, as we expected, the market moves into consolidation within a narrowing triangle. All bulls attempts to fix above 1.1360 are successfully repulsed, buyers are dropped from this level. This is largely due to the unclear position regarding the US dollar. Week began with strong sales of US currency, after which on Tuesday global market interest in risk declined. Yesterday, US markets experienced a strong sale, the demand for the dollar as a defensive asset rose sharply. The dollar index returned to annual highs, above the 96.90 mark.
In the middle of the week, global market is influenced by two strategic factors — investor uncertainty about the particular results of the US-China trade negotiations. Recall that the enthusiasm of the markets on Monday was caused precisely by the positive perception of the negotiations at the G20 summit. Secondly, the new introductory from the Fed last week, Powell announced the readiness of the American regulator to move to a more restrained monetary policy in 2019. On Wednesday, the head of the Fed was to speak before the congress and justify its position before the congressmen, but this event was postponed. Today, a low-active trading day is expected in the United States at low volumes. On this background, equities may partially recover some of yesterday's losses, and the dollar might get under relative pressure.
For EUR / USD support is located in the area of 1.1320-1.1300. However, in the current market conditions, we recommend staying out of the market. Shorts are also dangerous.
Trading recommendations - out of the market
GBP / USD
Yesterday, amid a sharp strengthening of the dollar, the market broke through support at 1.2720 and fell to the zone of August lows around 1.2660. As we expected, players use every upward pound momentum to sell it at more interesting prices. Today, the market is recovering, starting from this mark, but now it is 1.2720 resistance. Further development of the situation is not certain.
Trading recommendations - out of the market
AUD / USD
The sudden transition of the dollar to growth sent quotes of this market to support in the 0.7285 area. This is a strong and stable area that may be interesting for opening long positions.
Trading recommendations - longs in the 0.7285 zone
Gold
After gold quotes reached the October highs, traders recorded a portion of the profits and the market displayed a local pullback to the nearest support level of $ 1,233. This is a relatively weak level of support, but for now the bulls retain control of this zone. We can take risky long positions in this area, but be ready for the market to pass lower. The first valid market support is located in the $ 1,227 area.
Trading recommendations - longs in the region of $ 1233 and further in the zone of $ 1227
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