Thursday, 29 November 2018

FX TS

Posted by Anonymous at 11:56 Labels: trading signals

There have been a shift of market sentiments in the middle of the five-day period, and it seems that the inactive part of the trading week was left behind. Many of these changes occurred at the end of Wednesday when Fed chairman confirmed recent speculation that the Fed would be more inclined to slow down the process of normalizing policy, amid risks associated with too quick rate hike.

EUR / USD - another technical market reversal

Yesterday, the market situation once again changed dramatically after the speech of the Fed Chairman, that is, after the strategic fundamental factor. It is interesting how fundamental factors sometimes adapt to the market technical picture. Not once we noticed that the technical picture was already predetermined with the further course of events, and the smallest external push for the market was needed, and often this push is the fundamental news such as NON-FARM, or the speech of regulator chief or something else.

So what is happening in the main FX market. After the level 1.1300 was expectedly broken, the market slowed down at 1.1270, the local technical level, weak support. We must admit that we were pretty sure that we were going down to monthly lows around 1.1220, and only after that we would move on to growth. Yesterday it was clear that the sellers were exhausted and they had no strength to move the market lower. US dollar index spent yesterday's European session around annual highs at 97.45 and no one believed that USD would go higher on the eve of G20 start in Argentina.

In general, the market situation has not changed - EUR / USD is still trading within a wide range of 1.1220-1.1430 / 1.1465. Moreover, the fact that quotes did not reach the lower boundary of the channel (1.1220) this time suggests that the test of the upper boundary (zone 1.1430-1.1465) will be more serious this time. Bulls have a good chance to break through this level and pass to 1.1515. It is also interesting that the market immediately entrenched above the median line of this wide range -1.1360, this level is now the nearest main support.

Resistance levels remain the same, now sellers defense zone starts from 1.1420 and reaches up to 1.1465.

Trading recommendations - longs when rolling back to the area 1.1360

GBP / USD- still under pressure

Yesterday's weakness of the US currency led GBP / USD to 1.2830, and, in our opinion, this is not enough to believe in the formation of an upward momentum. The nearest resistance zone is the area of 1.2865-1.2875. However, the market is still oversold and any move lower can be used to open long positions in the 1.2770 area.

Trading recommendations - out of the market

AUD / USD- impressive growth on Wednesday

The growth of the Australian dollar on Wednesday was impressive. The pair pushed off from the level of 07200 and rose to the area of the three-week maximum of 0.7340. Exactly the same outcome we were expecting at the beginning of the week. Today we should expect profit taking and a technical pullback in the 0.7300 area. Positive sentiment on the market persists.

Trading recommendations - cautious longs in the 0.7300-0.7290 area

Gold has returned above $1220

The change in the medium-term market sentiment and the correction in the American dollar certainly affected the gold market. What is important is that the market returned above 1220, leveling the slide to $ 1212, which of course needed to be used to open longs. Now we have the situation of the beginning of the week, when the bulls dropped from an important level of $ 1225. Now the gold bulls have the same difficult task to consolidate above this level. Do they have the strength to do this? The question is open, given the eve of G20 summit in Argentina, amid all this informative noise around US-China trade relations. So far, it is clear that gold is still in the global demand, and our task is to pick it up the gold once market pullbacks in the area of 1219 and even lower in the 1215-1212 area. However, the second option does not seem to be given for a long time now. Fixing above 1225 and even higher around 1228 is also unlikely in the near future. As a result, most likely before the end of the week we will see range trading within 1220-1225. Local support levels are 1223 and 1221 marks.

Trading recommendations – longs with pullbacks when rollbacks

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