Tuesday, 21 August 2018
Technical analysis 21/08/18
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technical analysis
EUR/USD
The buying pressure remained intact on Monday. Sellers tried to lower the spot, however, they were stopped at 1.1400. The euro bounced off the level and grew to the 1.1450 area first. Buyers remained in control after that and drove the major to the 1.1540 area in the night. MACD entered the positive area. RSI is consolidating in the overbought zone. The moving averages continued their slope. The resistance resides at 1.1550, the support lies in at 1.1500.
The euro has a potential to continue its recovery and probe the 1.1550 region later the day.
GBP/USD
Buyers are still in control. They spent the first part of Monday trying to push the pound higher, however, managed to do it only in the afternoon. They continued advancing north during the late European session and were able to reach 1.2770 first. Bulls continued its rally afterwards and broke the 1.2800 hurdle in the mid night. The currency pair was growing the whole Asian session and reached 1.2830 by the morning. The short-term indicators (MACD and RSI) are giving buy signals. The moving averages are still moving south. The resistance resides at 1.2900, the support comes in at 1.2800.
The pound is likely to extend its recovery and will test 1.2900 in the coming days.
USD/JPY
Sellers continued to dominate on Monday. They pressured the 110.50 level in the night, but were rejected to the 110.60 area where the spot found fresh offers and dropped back to 110.50. The negative trend gained momentum after that and the currency pair accelerated its decline. The major extended its decline down to 109.80 where sellers lost control. The moving averages are moving downwards. MACD and RSI are staying near oversold levels. The resistance lies at 110.50, the support is at 110.00.
If the US dollar weakens further, the tone would favor further losses towards the support area 109.50-109.25.
AUD/USD
The market sentiment is still positive. The AUD/USD extended its recovery fueled by USD retracement on Monday. The AUD was struggling to break through 0.7300 the whole day, but failed to leave the level during the Asian and the European hours. The major got under intense buying pressure in the NY session and spiked to the 0.7350 hurdle. We assume that buyers could lift the spot higher, but the EMA100 which is located in this area and limited their advance. The short-term indicators (MACD and RSI) are giving buy signals. The moving averages are still moving south. The resistance stands at 0.7350, the support is at 0.7300.
The pair is expected to continue its recovery and move up to the 0.7380 region where the EMA200 will surely defend the upside.
USDCHF
USD/CHF started the week on a positive note. Buyers drove the US dollar to the 0.9970 area where the major found fresh offers. The increased selling pressure returned the spot back to the 0.9950 handle. Sellers did not stop after that and continued pushing the currency pair lower. They reached the 0.9930 area in the evening and 0.9870 in the night. The moving averages are neutral. MACD entered the negative area, RSI turned lower. The resistance stands at 0.9900, the support is at 0.9850.
We expect a rebound and a move towards the 0.9930-0.9900 area.
Gold
The recovery move which started last week is still in progress. However, the up-move stalled in the 1190 area where the yellow metal faced a decent resistance. Buyers failed to move beyond the level and retreated to 1185 where they regained control and sent the prices to weekly highs. The spot extended its near-term upward trajectory to the 1195 mark in the night. The moving averages maintained a strong downward slope. MACD is growing in the negative territory. RSI is overbought. The resistance resides at 1200, the support comes in at 1190.
We believe that bulls will remain in the driver's seat and will move up to 1200 later the week.
Brent
Brent remained in a buy mode on Monday. Bulls failed to regain the 72.50 last week and pulled back to gather momentum. The benchmark bounced to the 71.50 level, bounced from the handle and grew to 72.50 again. And once again the EMA100 defended this region and rejected the rate downwards. The moving averages continued their slope. MACD approached the mid-line. RSI is mostly neutral. The resistance stands at 72.50, the support is at 71.50.
A decisive break above 72.50 could open the door towards 73.00, en route to 73.50.
DAX
DAX had a positive day on Monday. The index gapped upwards from 12200 to the 12230 mark. The buying bias remained in place after that and the benchmark moved to the 12350 area where buyers lost momentum. When the buying pressure weakened the rate pulled back to 12300. The moving averages are pointing lower. MACD is growing in the negative territory pointing to buyers' strength. RSI is heading higher towards the overbought zone. The resistance stands at 12400, the support is at 12300.
Now when 12300 is broken the level 12400 became the probable bullish target.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin was neutral trading in a tight range in the 6400 area during the day trades on Monday. The selling pressure started to grow in the night and the crypto currency moved to the 6300 handle. The EMA50 and the EMA100 are heading lower, the EMA200 is still neutral. The EMA100 is crossing the EMA200 downwards which is a strong sell signal. MACD is close to the mid-line. RSI is neutral. The resistance stands at 6600, the support is at 6300.
We believe that the Bitcoin will preserve its negative tone and will decline to 6000 in the coming sessions.
Ethereum
Buyers failed to regain 300.000 last week. After spending a few days struggling with the level, the Ethereum abandoned its recent highs and moved to 280.000. The spot found fresh offers in this area and dropped to the 275.000 region. The moving averages are still declining. MACD is staying in the negative area. RSI is consolidating within oversold area. The resistance stands at 300.000, the support is at 275.000.
We believe that sellers will attack 275.000 in the short-term. A successful move below this level may lead to a sell-off towards 250.000.
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