What’s next? – GOLD, OIL 16.04.18

GOLD

Gold prices traded higher in Asian hours on Monday, with market players weighing geopolitical concerns while keeping an eye on upcoming economic reports scheduled later this week.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures were up 0.07 percent at $1.348.90 a troy ounce as of 06:50 GMT.

Last week, the yellow metal settled in green territory at $1,347.80 per ounce, about 0.44 percent higher. For the week, gold prices added 0.88 percent.

There were three factors supporting the metal in the last few sessions: prospects of a trade war between the US and China, rising international tensions over Syria, and the dollar’s dynamic.

President Xi Jinping said in the previous week that China is willing to take active measures to open its economy, allowing more foreign investments and importation. While this position reinforced the idea of a diplomatic solution, the US hasn’t responded in the same terms so far.

Meanwhile, attention progressively moved to Syria, where three military stations were destroyed by a US-led coalition airstrike launched on Friday. Forces from France, Britain and the US targeted key military infrastructure of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime.

President Donald Trump gave green light to a military intervention following Syria’s deployment of chemical weapons on April 7 in Douma. That attack killed nearly 40 people.

The US dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.03 percent lower at 89.48 by the time of this writing.

Dollar-denominated gold is very sensitive to moves in the American currency. A stronger dollar makes the yellow metal less attractive for investors holding foreign currencies.

Capping gains for the metal were minutes of the Fed’s March monetary policy encounter, which reinstated the possibility of another two interest rate hikes later this year. According to policymakers, the economy will reach its 2 percent target pretty soon.

Ahead in today’s session, retail sales for March will be out as of 12:30 GMT, along with the NY Empire State manufacturing index for April. Business inventories are due at 14:00 GMT.

Investors will also be monitoring a series of speeches by FOMC representatives, including Kaplan and Kashkari at 16:00 GMT and Bostic as of 17:15 GMT.

OIL

Oil futures were down in early trading hours on Monday amid a cautious market dynamic following a series of air strikes in Syria conducted over the weekend.

The US West Texas Intermediate crude contracts were down 0.88 percent to $66.88 per barrel as of 07:10 GMT. Meanwhile, Brent futures dropped 1.02 percent to $71.84 a barrel.

France, Britain and the United States launched a series of air strikes in Syria, targeting key military facilities of President Bashar Al Assad’s regime in response to a poison gas attack in Douma (April 7) that costed lives of nearly 40 people.

While Syria is not seen as a major oil player, the Middle East is still the most powerful oil exporting region in the world. Therefore whatever happens there has a strong effect on prices.

In recent months, oil benchmarks have been supported by output cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia. According to the cartel’s latest report, the global oil surplus will soon disappear after being reduced nine-tenths since the start of 2017.

Nevertheless, US shale oil producers continue to ramp up their production capabilities, threatening to wide the demand-supply gap once again.

Baker Hughes’ oil rig count rose by seven in the week ended April 13, leaving the total count at 815 units, the highest level since March 2015.

Ahead in the week, traders will await fresh inventory data on Tuesday and Wednesday and oil rig count figures on Friday. No major reports are due on Monday.

FortFS