Wednesday, 31 January 2018
EUR / USD - trying to show a strong month close
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On Wednesday, European currency is in demand again on the eve of important statistics on the EU and the US. Fundamentally, the mood in the market did not change much since last week, as the recent correction was of a technical nature associated with a certain EUR/USD overbought levels. It is worth noting that the results of correction are almost completely leveled to the start of today's trading session.
Despite some important macroeconomic data, the main intrigue of the day is still the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will be the last under the chairmanship of Yellen. Markets do not expect today any changes in the decision of the regulator in comparison with the December meeting. The statistical data of recent months, including low inflation expectations, are unlikely to force the Fed to take drastic decisions. The absence of a traditional press conference afterwards reduces the importance of the current meeting and the possible impact on the markets.
The main drivers for the market today are statistical data. Today we have an opportunity to evaluate the indicators published in the EU, the consumer price index in the region fell to 1.3% as predicted by experts, and the unemployment rate remained at the level of 8.7%, also in line with the forecast level. The market so far is quite restrained in reaction to these data, as they fully coincided with the forecast indicators.
In US today will be published no less important data. Along with the index of sales in the real estate market, we wait for the ADP data on employment in the private sector, which traditionally form the market's expectations for the main Friday report on the labor market.
On the chart, the price resumed upward movement, which already led to a change in indicators signals. The price unhurriedly, but confidently presses on the resistance level 1.2450-1.2460. However really serious resistance is located at the level of the recent maximum near the round mark 1.25. Given the global trend, the preponderance is still on the bulls side with the growth of the currency pair in the direction of 1.2570. Nevertheless, in the current situation, it is best to wait for the fixation above this mark to obtain confirmation of the bulls strength.
Our recommendations: wait until the pair is fixed above 1.2450
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