Wednesday, 31 January 2018
EUR / USD - trying to show a strong month close
Asian markets correct upwards following Wall Street’s red close
Asian stock indexes were mixed on Wednesday, trying to cap losses following Wall Street’s overnight plunge in the light of a softer-than-expected State of the Union speech in Congress.
Tokyo’s Nikkei was able to reverse early session losses as manufacturing and technology sectors pushed higher, while financials capped gains.
In South Korea, the Kospi was supported by heavy weights such as Samsung Electronics, which added nearly 6 percent after the company announced a 50:1 stock split. The decision was "based on the view that a high share price was a hindrance to potential investors," company representatives explained in a s statement.
Components of the Australian S&P/ASX 200 were mainly in green territory, with the exception of energy and materials, which continued to be under pressure as the dollar extended its recovery.
Financial equities were higher in Hong Kong, with the Hang Seng half a percent up by the time of this writing. Earlier in the day, China's manufacturing PMI came in at 51.3, falling short from an initially estimated 51.5 points.
Wall Street top three indexes extended losses for a second day in a row on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones industrial average falling 362.59 points to end at 26,076.89.
The S&P 500 left 1.1 percent behind to finish at 2,822.43, with health care as biggest loser. The Nasdaq composite dropped 0.9 percent to 7,402.48.
President Donald Trump’s State of the Union speech to the nation did not offer any news, despite focusing on a positive rhetoric regarding the economy.
"Since we passed tax cuts, roughly 3 million workers have already gotten tax cut bonuses – many of them thousands of dollars per worker," the Republican leader said.
"We will build gleaming new roads, bridges, highways, railways, and waterways across our land. And we will do it with American heart, American hands, and American grit."
<<< Asian Stock Indexes at 07:25 GMT >>>
Australia ASX S&P +11.20 +0.18% 6,146.50
Shanghai Composite -7.18 -0.21% 3,480.83
Hong Kong Hang Seng +171.93 +0.53% 32,779.22
Japan Nikkei 225 -193.68 -0.83% 23,098.29
Taiwan TSEC 50 Index +27.01 +0.24% 11,103.79
<<< Next in the Europe >>>
Investors will turn their heads to the release of German retail sales for December as of 07:00 GMT, the unemployment rate for January at 08:55 GMT and Eurozone’s consumer price index and employment data at 10:00 GMT.
<<< Next in the United States >>>
ADP nonfarm employment for January will be release at 13:15 GMT, with economists anticipating a 191,000 jobs creation. The employment cost index for the fourth-quarter will be available fifteen minutes later. Pending home sales for Dec are due for publishing at 15:00 GMT, with a 0.5 percent build seen.
What’s next? – GOLD, OIL 31.01.18
GOLD
Gold prices were higher in Asian trading hours on Wednesday, with market participants awaiting for fresh economic data and Fed’s monetary policy announcement.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures were up 0.46 percent at $1.346.10 a troy ounce as of 07:30 GMT.
The yellow metal settled in red territory on Tuesday as American bond yields continued to increase amid rising speculation over a solid economic growth and a better inflationary environment that could push the Federal Reserve to hike rates at a faster pace this year.
The Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day monetary on Tuesday, with the monetary policy announcement scheduled on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. According to market analysts, US policymakers will opt to keep things steady until Jerome Powell officially becomes Chairman.
Dollar-denominated gold is sensitive to variations in US rates. Higher interest rates lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as the precious metal, while promoting demand for its base currency, making it more expensive for foreign currency holders.
The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.21 percent lower at 88.81 by the time of this writing.
Overnight, investors also kept an eye on President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, which was basically centered in three things: commerce, immigration and national security.
On the data front, the Conference Board said its consumer confidence measure grew to 125.4 in January from 122.1 in December, above analysts’ expectation for a 123.1 reading.
Ahead in the day, ADP nonfarm employment for January will be release at 13:15 GMT, with economists anticipating a 191,000 jobs creation. The employment cost index for the fourth-quarter will be available fifteen minutes later. Pending home sales for Dec are due for publishing at 15:00 GMT, with a 0.5 percent build seen.
OIL
Oil futures were down in Asian hours on Wednesday, with official crude inventories in focus.
The US West Texas Intermediate crude contracts were down 0.59 percent to $64.12 per barrel as of 07:30 GMT. Meanwhile, Brent futures declined 1.19 percent to $68.20 a barrel.
Crude benchmarks were lower on Tuesday as investors have decided to get rid of some their bullish positions amid rising concerns that a higher US production would push prices down.
Oilfield services firm Baker Hughes said last week that the number of oil rigs searching for oil in the US rose by 12 to 759 in the week ended January 19.
The weekly oil rig count is used to gauge future supply levels. Analysts warned that US shale producers will try to take advantage of high energy prices by ramping up output levels.
Recently, the Paris-based International Energy Agency also explained that the US is getting really close to the 10-million-barrel-per-day milestone. The US Energy Information Administration reported a production volume of 9.88 million barrels per day last week.
Despite speculation over this matter, the commitment of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia over the production cuts agreement remains intact. Both parts have expressed full support to the measures.
The dollar is another factor weighing on benchmarks. A stronger dollar makes commodities more expensive for foreign currency holders.
The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.21 percent lower at 88.81 by the time of this writing.
The American Petroleum Institute said overnight crude inventories in the US rose by 3.23 million barrels for the week ended January 26. Gasoline supplies also increased 2.69 million barrels, while distillates eased by 4.1 million barrels.
Ahead in the day, crude and refined products stockpiles by the EIA will be out by 15:30 GMT.
Four Tips To Significantly Reduce Forex Risks
No matter if you are an experienced trader or a total beginner, you are all together in the duty to reduce Forex trading risks and maximize profitability. We’ve put together a list of five easy-to-implement advices that would seriously help you move in that direction.
1 - Reward : Risk Ratio
Keep you reward:risk ratio always present. In many occasions we’ve emphasized the importance of respecting your strategy and trading style. With risk, same rule applies.
If a trade falls out of your pre-set reward:risk ratio tolerance, then simply stay out of it. Trust us, there will be so many more opportunities in the near future. Letting one go won’t hurt you.
Avoid manipulating your stop loss / take profit levels in order to find a higher reward:risk ratio.
2 - Add flexible stops
Using stop loss orders to protect your account is a wise decision. No question about it. BUT using pips-based fixed stops is more dangerous than applying flexible ones. Fixed stops do not take into account price fluctuation, which is of course a huge disadvantage.
3 - Do not move to break-even
We have all been tempted to do so. You position is going great and you are in plus and you change your stop loss to break-even in order to avoid any risk in case things move in the other direction. Wrong.
By doing so, you are cutting a significant space for your position to naturally move up and down, risking to stay empty handed and therefore wasting your time.
4 - Size is everything
I know… cliché. But as weird as it sounds, it is true 100%. You cannot just define a percentage of 1 or 2 percent of your account and never change that setting.
Context changes, you should too. If a position is following a clear trend that has still long way before it changes, then you might consider scaling up your trading volume. Same viceversa.
Tuesday, 30 January 2018
Swing Trading vs. Position Trading: Which One Is Right For Me?
There are four easily identifiable styles of trading: scalping, day trading, swing trading and position trading. The main difference: timeframes. In this occasion, we would like to focus on the latest two: swing trading and position trading.
*** Swing Trading ***
Swing trading can be considered a medium-to-long term trading style. For that reason, a swing trader would be holding its positions for a few days before closing them.
This trading style is suitable for those who are not ready to operate on daily basis and would rather opt for a more balanced technical/fundamental analysis and strategy.
For example, if you are ok with the idea of managing your own investment but still need to take care of a 9-to-5 job, family and so… then swing trading allows you to do everything. You can monitor your investments whenever you have time, maybe a coffee break or during breakfast.
Swing trading is just it… swings. The idea is pretty intuitive: ride the swing up or down depending on your positioning. It is important to understand that holding positions for a few days mean exposure is higher and therefore stop loss/take profits should also reach for higher limits.
*** Position Trading ***
If you don’t want to even check out your investments every week, then you have to consider position trading, which allows you to keep positions running for months to years.
Of course, the level of investment should justify it. Usually, position trading is better suited for large investors as they have the ability to face stronger market swings without going bankrupt or hitting margin calls. Keep that in mind before choosing this trading style.
Position trading is mainly about fundamental analysis. You need to know how things will develop in the future, or at least be pretty good at forecasting changes in politics, monetary policy, etc.
What’s next? – GOLD, OIL 30.01.18
GOLD
Gold prices were down in Asian trading hours on Tuesday, as the US dollar continued to recover against major rivals, putting commodities under pressure.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures were down 0.10 percent at $1.338.90 a troy ounce as of 07:30 GMT.
The yellow metal dropped on Monday in the light of a sharp jump in the dollar as investors continued to build expectations on a promising economic growth rate and inflation.
Dollar-denominated gold is sensitive to variations in the dollar. A stronger greenback makes bullion more expensive for investors holding foreign currencies.
The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.22 percent higher at 89.33 by the time of this writing.
On the data front, the core PCE price index for December, one of Fed’s favorite inflation readings, came in line with forecast at a monthly rate of 0.2 percent and a yearly 1.5 percent.
In other news, personal spending for December was up 0.4 percent from the prior month, but still short from an initially estimated 0.5 percent and a previous 0.8 percent.
Those factors would push the Federal Open Market Committee to move forward with the anticipated three rate hikes planned for 2018, or even more depending on market conditions.
The Federal Reserve will hold its latest monetary policy meeting under Janet Yellen’s leadership on Tuesday. The event will be closely monitored, but no changes are seen so far.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs says the central bank is likely to take a more hawkish stance once Jerome Powells takes over, increasing chances of monetary policy adjustments.
According to the latest Commitment of Traders report, money managers and hedge funds have risen their gross long positions in Comex gold futures by 8,630 contracts to 236,003.
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OIL
Oil futures were down in Asian hours on Tuesday, as the dollar extended gains overnight.
The US West Texas Intermediate crude contracts were down 1.02 percent to $64.89 per barrel as of 07:30 GMT. Meanwhile, Brent futures declined 0.72 percent to $68.96 a barrel.
Crude benchmarks settled to the downside on Monday as the dollar rebounded in late hours, recovering some ground against major rivals while fears that US output would counteract OPEC-efforts to cap oil supply in the global market.
The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.22 percent higher at 89.33 by the time of this writing.
Dollar-denominated crude becomes cheaper and therefore more attractive for investors holding foreign currencies when the greenback is weaker than its opponents.
Last week, Baker Hughes said the number of oil rigs operating in the US rose by 12 to 759 in the week ended January 19. More rigs pumping oil anticipates higher production levels.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, the United States is close to producing 10 million barrels per day, a level that would put the country ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Analysts believe crude production in the US will continue to rise as shale producers are eager to take advantage of higher prices, although that would put benchmarks again under pressure.
Ahead in today’s session, traders will be looking at weekly crude and refined products stockpiles by the American Petroleum Institute.
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Monday, 29 January 2018
EUR / USD - a new week begins with a correction
What’s next? – GOLD, OIL 29.01.18
GOLD
Gold prices were moderately lower in Asian trading hours on Monday, as a rebound of the US dollar pushed market participants to close their positions and take profits.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures were down 0.44 percent at $1.346.10 a troy ounce as of 07:40 GMT.
Dollar-denominated gold is sensitive to variations in the dollar. A stronger greenback makes bullion more expensive for investors holding foreign currencies.
The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.16 percent higher at 89.03 by the time of this writing.
The American currency was supported by remarks from President Donald Trump insisting that under this administration the dollar will get “stronger and stronger”.
However, markets felt confused at first as US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has previously embraced a stronger currency, arguing a “weaker dollar is good for trade.”
The dollar continued its decline following the release of a downbeat fourth-quarter gross domestic product in the United States. According to data, the economy expanded by an annualized 2.6 percent, below an estimated 3 percent and a prior reading of 3.2 percent.
The Federal Reserve will hold its latest monetary policy meeting under Janet Yellen’s leadership on Tuesday. The event will be closely watched by investors, although no changes are expected.
On Friday, traders will be monitoring the release of employment figures by the US Department of Labor. The state of the labor market plays an important role in the policy decision.
The PCE price index and personal spending data for December are due at 13:30 GMT.
OIL
Oil futures were mixed in Asian hours on Monday, as the dollar remained in a weak position despite a moderate rebound in early trading and as traders await fresh data later this week.
The US West Texas Intermediate crude contracts were up 0.02 percent to $66.15 per barrel as of 07:40 GMT. Meanwhile, Brent futures declined 0.30 percent to $70.31 a barrel.
The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.16 percent higher at 89.03 by the time of this writing.
The dollar has played an important role in supporting oil prices in the last few weeks. Dollar-denominated crude becomes cheaper and therefore more attractive for investors holding foreign currencies when the greenback is weaker than its opponents.
Last week, crude benchmarks ended at their highest level since 2014 following unexpected reduction in US crude inventories and production levels.
Meanwhile, speculation grew that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia would continue to support the output cuts even after 2018.
Market analysts have warned that US shale oil producers might be ready to ramp up their production to take advantage of higher prices.
General Electric's Baker Hughes oilfield services company said on Friday the number of oil rigs operating in the United States rose by 12 to 759 in the week ended January 19. An increasing number of rigs anticipates higher production levels.
In other news, the CFTC said hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish bets on crude oil futures and options positions in New York and London by 7,612 contracts to 549,602.
Asian markets mixed; data and dollar in focus
3 Reasons Why Not To Give Up Trading
Friday, 26 January 2018
EUR / USD correction risks increase, 1.2310 - first significant support
Asian equity indexes mixed; Trump and US Q4 GDP in focus
Why Long-Term Trading Might Be Right For You?
Thursday, 25 January 2018
Asian markets close in red territory; ECB meeting eyed
Weekly Outlook: Jan 29 - Feb 2
Wednesday, 24 January 2018
EUR / USD - rally continues
Mixed session for Asian stock indexes; new data in focus
Bollinger Bands: Are They Any Good?
Tuesday, 23 January 2018
EUR / USD - consolidation in a narrow range continues
Government Shutdown Off: Democrats Support Budget Extension
Asian equity indexes higher as US gov shutdown ended; BOJ keeps policy steady
Monday, 22 January 2018
EUR/USD – the week starts with the consolidation
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