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Fort Financial Services - EN

Wednesday, 31 January 2018

EUR / USD - trying to show a strong month close

9 comments : Posted by Anonymous at 16:39 Labels: trading signals , what’s next

On Wednesday, European currency is in demand again on the eve of important statistics on the EU and the US. Fundamentally, the mood in the market did not change much since last week, as the recent correction was of a technical nature associated with a certain EUR/USD overbought levels. It is worth noting that the results of correction are almost completely leveled to the start of today's trading session.
Despite some important macroeconomic data, the main intrigue of the day is still the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will be the last under the chairmanship of Yellen. Markets do not expect today any changes in the decision of the regulator in comparison with the December meeting. The statistical data of recent months, including low inflation expectations, are unlikely to force the Fed to take drastic decisions. The absence of a traditional press conference afterwards reduces the importance of the current meeting and the possible impact on the markets.
The main drivers for the market today are statistical data. Today we have an opportunity to evaluate the indicators published in the EU, the consumer price index in the region fell to 1.3% as predicted by experts, and the unemployment rate remained at the level of 8.7%, also in line with the forecast level. The market so far is quite restrained in reaction to these data, as they fully coincided with the forecast indicators.
In US today will be published no less important data. Along with the index of sales in the real estate market, we wait for the ADP data on employment in the private sector, which traditionally form the market's expectations for the main Friday report on the labor market.
On the chart, the price resumed upward movement, which already led to a change in indicators signals. The price unhurriedly, but confidently presses on the resistance level 1.2450-1.2460. However really serious resistance is located at the level of the recent maximum near the round mark 1.25. Given the global trend, the preponderance is still on the bulls side with the growth of the currency pair in the direction of 1.2570. Nevertheless, in the current situation, it is best to wait for the fixation above this mark to obtain confirmation of the bulls strength.
Our recommendations: wait until the pair is fixed above 1.2450

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Asian markets correct upwards following Wall Street’s red close

4 comments : Posted by Anonymous at 13:04 Labels: Wall Street

Asian stock indexes were mixed on Wednesday, trying to cap losses following Wall Street’s overnight plunge in the light of a softer-than-expected State of the Union speech in Congress.

Tokyo’s Nikkei was able to reverse early session losses as manufacturing and technology sectors pushed higher, while financials capped gains.

In South Korea, the Kospi was supported by heavy weights such as Samsung Electronics, which added nearly 6 percent after the company announced a 50:1 stock split. The decision was "based on the view that a high share price was a hindrance to potential investors," company representatives explained in a s statement.

Components of the Australian S&P/ASX 200 were mainly in green territory, with the exception of energy and materials, which continued to be under pressure as the dollar extended its recovery.

Financial equities were higher in Hong Kong, with the Hang Seng half a percent up by the time of this writing. Earlier in the day, China's manufacturing PMI came in at 51.3, falling short from an initially estimated 51.5 points.

Wall Street top three indexes extended losses for a second day in a row on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones industrial average falling 362.59 points to end at 26,076.89.

The S&P 500 left 1.1 percent behind to finish at 2,822.43, with health care as biggest loser. The Nasdaq composite dropped 0.9 percent to 7,402.48.

President Donald Trump’s State of the Union speech to the nation did not offer any news, despite focusing on a positive rhetoric regarding the economy.

"Since we passed tax cuts, roughly 3 million workers have already gotten tax cut bonuses – many of them thousands of dollars per worker," the Republican leader said.

"We will build gleaming new roads, bridges, highways, railways, and waterways across our land. And we will do it with American heart, American hands, and American grit."

<<< Asian Stock Indexes at 07:25 GMT >>>

Australia ASX S&P +11.20 +0.18% 6,146.50

Shanghai Composite -7.18 -0.21% 3,480.83

Hong Kong Hang Seng +171.93 +0.53% 32,779.22

Japan Nikkei 225 -193.68 -0.83% 23,098.29

Taiwan TSEC 50 Index +27.01 +0.24% 11,103.79

<<< Next in the Europe >>>

Investors will turn their heads to the release of German retail sales for December as of 07:00 GMT, the unemployment rate for January at 08:55 GMT and Eurozone’s consumer price index and employment data at 10:00 GMT.

<<< Next in the United States >>>

ADP nonfarm employment for January will be release at 13:15 GMT, with economists anticipating a 191,000 jobs creation. The employment cost index for the fourth-quarter will be available fifteen minutes later. Pending home sales for Dec are due for publishing at 15:00 GMT, with a 0.5 percent build seen.

Fort Financial Servics

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What’s next? – GOLD, OIL 31.01.18

1 comment : Posted by Anonymous at 13:00 Labels: what’s next

GOLD

Gold prices were higher in Asian trading hours on Wednesday, with market participants awaiting for fresh economic data and Fed’s monetary policy announcement.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures were up 0.46 percent at $1.346.10 a troy ounce as of 07:30 GMT.

The yellow metal settled in red territory on Tuesday as American bond yields continued to increase amid rising speculation over a solid economic growth and a better inflationary environment that could push the Federal Reserve to hike rates at a faster pace this year.

The Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day monetary on Tuesday, with the monetary policy announcement scheduled on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. According to market analysts, US policymakers will opt to keep things steady until Jerome Powell officially becomes Chairman.

Dollar-denominated gold is sensitive to variations in US rates. Higher interest rates lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as the precious metal, while promoting demand for its base currency, making it more expensive for foreign currency holders.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.21 percent lower at 88.81 by the time of this writing.

Overnight, investors also kept an eye on President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, which was basically centered in three things: commerce, immigration and national security.

On the data front, the Conference Board said its consumer confidence measure grew to 125.4 in January from 122.1 in December, above analysts’ expectation for a 123.1 reading.

Ahead in the day, ADP nonfarm employment for January will be release at 13:15 GMT, with economists anticipating a 191,000 jobs creation. The employment cost index for the fourth-quarter will be available fifteen minutes later. Pending home sales for Dec are due for publishing at 15:00 GMT, with a 0.5 percent build seen.

OIL

Oil futures were down in Asian hours on Wednesday, with official crude inventories in focus.

The US West Texas Intermediate crude contracts were down 0.59 percent to $64.12 per barrel as of 07:30 GMT. Meanwhile, Brent futures declined 1.19 percent to $68.20 a barrel.

Crude benchmarks were lower on Tuesday as investors have decided to get rid of some their bullish positions amid rising concerns that a higher US production would push prices down.

Oilfield services firm Baker Hughes said last week that the number of oil rigs searching for oil in the US rose by 12 to 759 in the week ended January 19.

The weekly oil rig count is used to gauge future supply levels. Analysts warned that US shale producers will try to take advantage of high energy prices by ramping up output levels.

Recently, the Paris-based International Energy Agency also explained that the US is getting really close to the 10-million-barrel-per-day milestone. The US Energy Information Administration reported a production volume of 9.88 million barrels per day last week.

Despite speculation over this matter, the commitment of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia over the production cuts agreement remains intact. Both parts have expressed full support to the measures.

The dollar is another factor weighing on benchmarks. A stronger dollar makes commodities more expensive for foreign currency holders.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.21 percent lower at 88.81 by the time of this writing.

The American Petroleum Institute said overnight crude inventories in the US rose by 3.23 million barrels for the week ended January 26. Gasoline supplies also increased 2.69 million barrels, while distillates eased by 4.1 million barrels.

Ahead in the day, crude and refined products stockpiles by the EIA will be out by 15:30 GMT.

Fort Financial Services

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Four Tips To Significantly Reduce Forex Risks

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 11:28 Labels: this is interesting , what’s next

No matter if you are an experienced trader or a total beginner, you are all together in the duty to reduce Forex trading risks and maximize profitability. We’ve put together a list of five easy-to-implement advices that would seriously help you move in that direction.

1 - Reward : Risk Ratio

Keep you reward:risk ratio always present. In many occasions we’ve emphasized the importance of respecting your strategy and trading style. With risk, same rule applies.

If a trade falls out of your pre-set reward:risk ratio tolerance, then simply stay out of it. Trust us, there will be so many more opportunities in the near future. Letting one go won’t hurt you.

Avoid manipulating your stop loss / take profit levels in order to find a higher reward:risk ratio.

2 - Add flexible stops

Using stop loss orders to protect your account is a wise decision. No question about it. BUT using pips-based fixed stops is more dangerous than applying flexible ones. Fixed stops do not take into account price fluctuation, which is of course a huge disadvantage.

3 - Do not move to break-even

We have all been tempted to do so. You position is going great and you are in plus and you change your stop loss to break-even in order to avoid any risk in case things move in the other direction. Wrong.

By doing so, you are cutting a significant space for your position to naturally move up and down, risking to stay empty handed and therefore wasting your time.

4 - Size is everything

I know… cliché. But as weird as it sounds, it is true 100%. You cannot just define a percentage of 1 or 2 percent of your account and never change that setting.

Context changes, you should too. If a position is following a clear trend that has still long way before it changes, then you might consider scaling up your trading volume. Same viceversa.

Fort Financial Services

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Tuesday, 30 January 2018

Swing Trading vs. Position Trading: Which One Is Right For Me?

2 comments : Posted by Anonymous at 11:28 Labels: this is interesting

There are four easily identifiable styles of trading: scalping, day trading, swing trading and position trading. The main difference: timeframes. In this occasion, we would like to focus on the latest two: swing trading and position trading.

*** Swing Trading ***

Swing trading can be considered a medium-to-long term trading style. For that reason, a swing trader would be holding its positions for a few days before closing them.

This trading style is suitable for those who are not ready to operate on daily basis and would rather opt for a more balanced technical/fundamental analysis and strategy.

For example, if you are ok with the idea of managing your own investment but still need to take care of a 9-to-5 job, family and so… then swing trading allows you to do everything. You can monitor your investments whenever you have time, maybe a coffee break or during breakfast.

Swing trading is just it… swings. The idea is pretty intuitive: ride the swing up or down depending on your positioning. It is important to understand that holding positions for a few days mean exposure is higher and therefore stop loss/take profits should also reach for higher limits.

*** Position Trading ***

If you don’t want to even check out your investments every week, then you have to consider position trading, which allows you to keep positions running for months to years.

Of course, the level of investment should justify it. Usually, position trading is better suited for large investors as they have the ability to face stronger market swings without going bankrupt or hitting margin calls. Keep that in mind before choosing this trading style.

Position trading is mainly about fundamental analysis. You need to know how things will develop in the future, or at least be pretty good at forecasting changes in politics, monetary policy, etc.

Fort Financial Services

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What’s next? – GOLD, OIL 30.01.18

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 11:25 Labels: what’s next

GOLD

Gold prices were down in Asian trading hours on Tuesday, as the US dollar continued to recover against major rivals, putting commodities under pressure.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures were down 0.10 percent at $1.338.90 a troy ounce as of 07:30 GMT.

The yellow metal dropped on Monday in the light of a sharp jump in the dollar as investors continued to build expectations on a promising economic growth rate and inflation.

Dollar-denominated gold is sensitive to variations in the dollar. A stronger greenback makes bullion more expensive for investors holding foreign currencies.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.22 percent higher at 89.33 by the time of this writing.

On the data front, the core PCE price index for December, one of Fed’s favorite inflation readings, came in line with forecast at a monthly rate of 0.2 percent and a yearly 1.5 percent.

In other news, personal spending for December was up 0.4 percent from the prior month, but still short from an initially estimated 0.5 percent and a previous 0.8 percent.

Those factors would push the Federal Open Market Committee to move forward with the anticipated three rate hikes planned for 2018, or even more depending on market conditions.

The Federal Reserve will hold its latest monetary policy meeting under Janet Yellen’s leadership on Tuesday. The event will be closely monitored, but no changes are seen so far.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs says the central bank is likely to take a more hawkish stance once Jerome Powells takes over, increasing chances of monetary policy adjustments.

According to the latest Commitment of Traders report, money managers and hedge funds have risen their gross long positions in Comex gold futures by 8,630 contracts to 236,003.

OIL

Oil futures were down in Asian hours on Tuesday, as the dollar extended gains overnight.

The US West Texas Intermediate crude contracts were down 1.02 percent to $64.89 per barrel as of 07:30 GMT. Meanwhile, Brent futures declined 0.72 percent to $68.96 a barrel.

Crude benchmarks settled to the downside on Monday as the dollar rebounded in late hours, recovering some ground against major rivals while fears that US output would counteract OPEC-efforts to cap oil supply in the global market.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.22 percent higher at 89.33 by the time of this writing.

Dollar-denominated crude becomes cheaper and therefore more attractive for investors holding foreign currencies when the greenback is weaker than its opponents.

Last week, Baker Hughes said the number of oil rigs operating in the US rose by 12 to 759 in the week ended January 19. More rigs pumping oil anticipates higher production levels.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, the United States is close to producing 10 million barrels per day, a level that would put the country ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Analysts believe crude production in the US will continue to rise as shale producers are eager to take advantage of higher prices, although that would put benchmarks again under pressure.

Ahead in today’s session, traders will be looking at weekly crude and refined products stockpiles by the American Petroleum Institute.


Fort Financial Services

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Monday, 29 January 2018

EUR / USD - a new week begins with a correction

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 16:21 Labels: promotion , trading signals , what’s next

The week ended was very successful for the European currency. Euro tested level 1.25. The green light on the continuation of the bullish trend was received from Mario Draghi during a press conference after the meeting of the European regulator. At the same time, USD dollar remains under pressure, although the new week begins with a correctional pullback of the dollar, a number of negative factors persist and a generally favorable fundamental background for the European currency remains.
So on Thursday ECB kept the interest rate unchanged and the amount of the asset repurchase program at the same level, Draghi positively estimated the dynamics of economic growth, which is confirmed by economic statistics. Moreover, most importantly, Mario positively assessed the prospects of achieving the target level of inflation in the region, paying little attention to the recent European currency rally.
From fundamental point of view, the dollar remains under pressure amid a number of factors, the main of which is uncertainty. What is interesting the source of uncertainty is the White House. Markets do not know what to expect from the dollar in 2018 amid contradictory statements by representatives of the White House, and the opposite comments of two dignitaries last week do not add to the market any certainty in this regard. In addition, US Federal Reserve's position is not entirely clear. That is why the forthcoming meeting, which will be the last one for Yellen, does not have high hopes for any changes especially since Janet Yellen will not be expected to speak. She left all the room for maneuver to her receiver. Markets take this as an obvious confirmation that no practical steps will be taken at this meeting.
Disappointing data on US GDP, although were ignored by the stock markets, yet for the currency market this information is more significant. Actual data came in at 2.6% with a forecast of 3.0%, while in the third quarter the indicator was at 3.2%.
In general, the overall news background for the currency pair remains positive, and the single European currency will likely enjoy increased demand amid local pullbacks of the prices.
From a technical point of view, the situation develops in the way of correction. The nearest support is at the level of 1.2360. The main support level is located at the round level 1.2300.
Our recommendations-longs at levels 1.2300-1.2330

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What’s next? – GOLD, OIL 29.01.18

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 10:44 Labels: what’s next

GOLD

Gold prices were moderately lower in Asian trading hours on Monday, as a rebound of the US dollar pushed market participants to close their positions and take profits.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures were down 0.44 percent at $1.346.10 a troy ounce as of 07:40 GMT.

Dollar-denominated gold is sensitive to variations in the dollar. A stronger greenback makes bullion more expensive for investors holding foreign currencies.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.16 percent higher at 89.03 by the time of this writing.

The American currency was supported by remarks from President Donald Trump insisting that under this administration the dollar will get “stronger and stronger”.

However, markets felt confused at first as US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has previously embraced a stronger currency, arguing a “weaker dollar is good for trade.”

The dollar continued its decline following the release of a downbeat fourth-quarter gross domestic product in the United States. According to data, the economy expanded by an annualized 2.6 percent, below an estimated 3 percent and a prior reading of 3.2 percent.

The Federal Reserve will hold its latest monetary policy meeting under Janet Yellen’s leadership on Tuesday. The event will be closely watched by investors, although no changes are expected.

On Friday, traders will be monitoring the release of employment figures by the US Department of Labor. The state of the labor market plays an important role in the policy decision.

The PCE price index and personal spending data for December are due at 13:30 GMT.

OIL

Oil futures were mixed in Asian hours on Monday, as the dollar remained in a weak position despite a moderate rebound in early trading and as traders await fresh data later this week.

The US West Texas Intermediate crude contracts were up 0.02 percent to $66.15 per barrel as of 07:40 GMT. Meanwhile, Brent futures declined 0.30 percent to $70.31 a barrel.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.16 percent higher at 89.03 by the time of this writing.

The dollar has played an important role in supporting oil prices in the last few weeks. Dollar-denominated crude becomes cheaper and therefore more attractive for investors holding foreign currencies when the greenback is weaker than its opponents.

Last week, crude benchmarks ended at their highest level since 2014 following unexpected reduction in US crude inventories and production levels.

Meanwhile, speculation grew that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia would continue to support the output cuts even after 2018.

Market analysts have warned that US shale oil producers might be ready to ramp up their production to take advantage of higher prices.

General Electric's Baker Hughes oilfield services company said on Friday the number of oil rigs operating in the United States rose by 12 to 759 in the week ended January 19. An increasing number of rigs anticipates higher production levels.

In other news, the CFTC said hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish bets on crude oil futures and options positions in New York and London by 7,612 contracts to 549,602.

Fort Financial Serivices

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Asian markets mixed; data and dollar in focus

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 09:59 Labels: this is interesting , Wall Street , what’s next


Asian stock indexes traded mix on Monday as market participants continued to benefit from a weak US dollar while they await fresh economic reports later this week.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 found support on energy-related stocks and automakers. Commodities were up earlier in the day on the back of a cheaper dollar.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.16 percent higher at 89.03 by the time of this writing.

The South Korean Kospi was lifted by rising technology equities, with Samsung Electronics adding more than half a percent after better-than-expected Q4 earnings.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was also higher with gold remaining close to local highs as the American currency continues to slip across the board.

US stocks ended in green territory on Friday as the corporate earnings season continued to show good results. The Dow Jones industrial average was up 223.92 points to 26,616.71.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite added 1.2 percent and 1.3 percent to 2,872.87 and 7,505.77 points respectively. Both record-high levels.

On the data front, the US Commerce Department the economy expanded at a 2.6 percent growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2017, below an estimated 3 percent. Durable goods orders increased by 2.9 percent in December, comfortably above a 0.8 percent seen.

<<< Asian Stock Indexes at 07:40 GMT >>>

Australia ASX S&P                +22.90            +0.37%           6,187.60
Shanghai Composite             -35.13             -0.99%            3,523.00
Hong Kong Hang Seng          -97.69             -0.29%            33,056.43
Japan Nikkei 225                   -2.54               -0.01%            23,629.34
Taiwan TSEC 50 Index          +74.71            +0.67%           11,221.81

<<< Next in the United States >>>

Today, the PCE price index and personal spending data for December are due at 13:30 GMT.

The Federal Reserve will hold its latest monetary policy meeting under Janet Yellen’s leadership on Tuesday. The event will be closely watched by investors, although no changes are expected.


On Friday, traders will be monitoring the release of employment figures by the US Department of Labor. The state of the labor market plays an important role in the policy decision.
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3 Reasons Why Not To Give Up Trading

9 comments : Posted by Anonymous at 09:58 Labels: this is interesting , what’s next

Believe it or not, everyone who has ever traded faced that same moment of doubt. “Should I keep going?” - One of the most common questions going around traders’ minds over and over for days, months or even years. While each case is different and there cannot be a right answer for all of them, most of the time the answer ends up being “yes”. And let me explain why:

Trading is about knowledge

I know… you are surfing the internet and every single day you find new brokers offering you the best, most advanced solutions to earn thousands of dollars while only investing $50 and… did I mention it is all risk-free?

Well, sorry. Someone has to break it up for you. Miracles happen, but you can just sit around waiting for them. Trading is about knowledge and knowledge means education. Nobody is asking you to hold a PhD in Economics or Finances, but you have to put some hours into the matter, sit down and process information and learn the basis. No way around. If so far you haven’t done so, then it is not too late to start.

Trading is about practice

I cannot emphasize this enough. Trading is all about constancy and sweat. Think of it as a sport. You don’t get better without training. So each time you feel demotivated, try to rewire your mind as an athlete and instead of just getting pissed off with the charts and hit the bar, breathe, meditate and repeat. Always repeat. Because each time you fail, you are learning.

You are not alone

And it is true. You are not. As I said at the begging of this piece, many traders face the same negative impulse to quit trading because it’s either too hard, too time consuming or too expensive. Negative arguments will always be there. But positive ones too. And it is up to you which side you embrace. Do you embrace challenges or failure? Do you focus on pluses or minuses? Blogs, forums, websites… the web is full of reliable resources to share your experiences and help you become a better trader.
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Friday, 26 January 2018

EUR / USD correction risks increase, 1.2310 - first significant support

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 17:56 Labels: this is interesting , trading signals , what’s next



Yesterday ECB President Mario Draghi and US President Donald Trump comments were the main drivers of volatility in the market. Draghi with his optimistic forecasts regarding the EU economy growth and the achievement on the inflation level target, along with soft comments on the issue of a strong euro exchange rate, contributed to the further growth of the EUR / USD currency pair. Thursday session EUR/USD managed to overcome the level of 1.25. However, subsequent comments by Donald Trump that Stephen Mnuchin's words about the weak dollar were misinterpreted did not allow the currency to gain a foothold above this mark.
Nobody expected that the pair could immediately consolidate at this level, so that events develop according to general expectations. Correction was certainly expected, but the whole question now is only how long the correction will last and at what level the market will stop.
Yesterday, Draghi's speech gave a green light in the continuation of the bullish trend in the market. Today, the currency pair has already recovered and again tried to approach the 1.25 mark, but further success in overcoming this level will depend on US internal statistics. In particular, data on US GDP and durable goods orders can have a key influence on the behavior of market participants. If both the first and second indicators are worse than the forecast, the currency pair is likely to continue its growth and will likely be able to gain a foothold above 1.25 thus opening up new horizons for growth.
A good potential for the growth remains in terms of technical analysis. The currency pair was able to quickly recover after resent losses and again tests for resistance at 1.2475. If in the next few days we see a breakdown of this level from the bottom to the top, we can observe the pair at the level of 1.2570, and maybe we will see the attempt of testing 1.2600. If the breakdown of 1.2475 does not take place, we should expect a moderate decline to the area of ​​1.2300.
Our recommendations: go long when the pair pulls back. The main support level in the zone 1.2310-1.2290
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Asian equity indexes mixed; Trump and US Q4 GDP in focus

1 comment : Posted by Anonymous at 09:48 Labels: this is interesting , Wall Street , what’s next

Asian markets were mixed on Friday as market players digested confusing remarks from President Trump, while keeping an eye on the US economic agenda.

The Dow Jones industrial average once again ended the previous session at a record high on after Caterpillar and 3M reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings.

However, gains were capped by remarks from President Donald Trump, who said under his administration the greenback will get "stronger and stronger".

The S&P 500 ended 0.1 percent to the upside at 2,839.25, while the Nasdaq composite finished with a similar variation lower at 7,411.16.

Market participants will be focusing on the Davos forum, where President Donald Trump is expected to speak later in the day. Attention will be mainly on the dollar and its dynamic.

Trump is likely to emphasize the importance of his “America First” policies, including the withdrawal from the North American free-trade agreement (NAFTA) and or the Paris’ Global Climate Change agreement.

Speeches by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda are set as of 14:00 GMT. These two speakers will be carefully examined over policy issues.

<<< Asian Stock Indexes at 07:40 GMT >>>

Australia ASX S&P                -4.10               -0.07%            6,164.70
Shanghai Composite             +9.82              +0.28%           3,558.13
Hong Kong Hang Seng          +391.10          +1.20%           33,045.55
Japan Nikkei 225                   -37.61             -0.16%            23,631.88
Taiwan TSEC 50 Index          -18.85             -0.17%            11,147.10

<<< Next in Europe >>>

No relevant economic data is due today.

<<< Next in the United States >>>


Ahead in the day, traders will be focusing mainly at the release of the US fourth-quarter gross domestic product as of 13:30 GMT, with an estimated growth rate of 3.0 percent. At the same time, durable goods orders will be for December will be out.
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Why Long-Term Trading Might Be Right For You?

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 09:45 Labels: this is interesting , what’s next

Trading Forex is typically associated with a fast-pace high-volatility type of trading. In fact, in most cases it is. But not everyone has so much time or wants to spend it before a chart. And that is just fine. That is why trading long-term is still a valuable alternative.

Let’s presume you are just given your first steps in Forex. So you open a real account with $500 and after learning the basics, you understand you do not have enough time to spend on it. What do you do? Nope. You don’t cash out. You apply a long-term strategy. Simple: keep and hold.

The tricky thing about a keep-and-hold strategy is that you should really work hard to improve risk management to its best possible in order to not fall into badly executed orders.

In other words: if you open a position and set stop limits too close or too far of the price, then you could face an early close or extremely painful losses.

Trading long-term means setting long-term objectives. You have to focus on a larger picture. Work with wider timeframes, like 1 week, 1 month or even 1 year. All depending on what is your ability to read those charts and correctly forecast price action.

No matter if you are working as a daytrader or just intending to make a few extra bucks as a long-term trader, you cannot lose vision on your trading. However, as a long-term trader your control can take place not so often. For example, twice or once per week would be ideal.

In general terms, applying a long-term strategy would demand you to focus more on fundamental changes than technical ones. But knowing where key supports and resistances are placed will not hurt anybody. The more you know, the more you make. That rule never fails.

As for capital. Long-term trader requires a bit more than a day-to-day trading account. The reason is obvious. If your positions need space to move freely up and down for some time, then that space is call money, sometimes negative for you. Yes, I am taking about margin
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Thursday, 25 January 2018

Asian markets close in red territory; ECB meeting eyed

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 10:12 Labels: Wall Street , what’s next

Asian stock markets traded mainly lower on Thursday as the greenback extended its path to the downside following remarks by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin from Davos.

Mnuchin said a weaker greenback is good for the economy, although reassuring the dollar will not lose its place as the primary world trade and reserve currency.

“A weaker dollar is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities. Longer term, the strength of the dollar is a reflection of the strength of the US economy and that it is, and will continue to be, the primary reserve currency.”

The Japanese benchmark Nikkei 225 was down 1.13 percent or 271.29 points at 23,669.49, with financials, manufacturing, automakers ending in red numbers. These sectors are feeling the pressure of a stronger yen as the dollar continues to soften across the board.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.16 percent lower at 88.87 by the time of this writing.

The S&P/ASX 200 suffered some minor losses, with materials rising as dollar-denominated commodities enjoy of a stronger demand, but with financials weighing on the index.

Wall Street top indexes closed mixed near fresh record highs, with Dow Jones industrial average standing at 26,252.12, the S&P 500 easing half a percent and the Nasdaq too.

<<< Asian Stock Indexes at 07:40 GMT >>>

Australia ASX S&P                -4.10               -0.07%            6,164.70
Shanghai Composite             -11.16             -0.31%            3,548.31
Hong Kong Hang Seng          -220.69           -0.67%            32,738.00
Japan Nikkei 225                   -271.29           -1.13%            23,669.49
Taiwan TSEC 50 Index          +13.79            +0.12%           11,165.95

<<< Next in Europe >>>

In Europe, Germany’s GfK consumer climate for February is due for release at 07:00 GMT (Forecast: 10.8), while business expectations (Forecast: 109.4) and current assessment (Forecast: 125.4) for January will be out as of 09:00 GMT. The lfo business climate index for January will be available by that same hour (Forecast: 117.1).


However, Investors will be focusing mainly at the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting and a speech by President Mario Draghi following an official statement. The interest rate decision will be announced at 12:45 GMT, while Draghi is set to speak at 13:30 GMT.
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Weekly Outlook: Jan 29 - Feb 2

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 10:10 Labels: motivation , what’s next

Monday

United States: the core PCE price index for December is due at 13:30 GMT, with a monthly build seen of 0.2 percent and a 1.6 percent year-over-year advance.

Asia: the Japanese household spending for December is up at 23:30 GMT, along with the jobs/ratio applications. Retail sales for December are set for release at 23:30 GMT.

Tuesday

Europe: the German consumer price index for January is scheduled at 13:00 GMT.

United States: the S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. for November will be out as of 14:00 GMT, with a 6.4 percent read seen. The Conference Board will release its consumer confidence survey at 15:00 GMT, with an estimated read of 123 points.

Asia: Japan’s industrial production for December is set for release at 23:50 GMT.

Wednesday

Asia: Australia’s consumer price index for the fourth-quarter is due at 00:30 GMT, along with private sector credit for December. In China, attention will be directed to the manufacturing and non manufacturing PMI for January at 01:00 GMT.

Europe: Germany’s retail sales figures for December are up at 07:00 GMT. The unemployment rate for January is set for publishing at 09:00 GMT. Meanwhile, Eurozone’s CPI and unemployment rate will come at 10:00 GMT.

United States: ADP nonfarm employment change for January is up at 13:30 GMT. Chicago PMI for January is up at 14:45 GMT, with a 64.5 points reading. Pending home sales for December are scheduled at 15:00 GMT. The main event of the week - the Federal Reserve interest rate announcement - is set at 19:00 GMT.

Thursday

Asia: China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI for January will hit markets at 01:45 GMT, with a 50.6 reading seen from a prior month 51.5 points.

Europe: the German manufacturing PMI for January is up at 08:55 GMT, followed by the manufacturing PMI for January at 09:00 GMT. The UK manufacturing PMI will be available half an hour later.

United States: fourth-quarter nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs will be presented by 13:30 GMT. The ISM will unveil its manufacturing PMI at 15:00 GMT.

Friday

Europe: the United Kingdom will present its fourth-quarter gross domestic product at 09:30 GMT. A downward revision is expected on yearly and quarterly terms to 1.4 and 0.3 percent.


United States: all traders will be monitoring the release of January’s employment report by the Labor Department. Nonfarm payrolls, participation rate, unemployment rate, they are all set for release at 13:30 GMT. Factory orders for December are next at 15:00 GMT. Michigan University will also be presenting their consumer expectations and consumer sentiment surveys.
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Wednesday, 24 January 2018

EUR / USD - rally continues

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 15:56 Labels: this is interesting , trading signals , what’s next




The European currency remains more attractive to investors than the US dollar. Even the resumption of government funding yesterday did not help the dollar at least stay at current levels. Maybe some fears that this situation will be come back already in early February, force investors to get rid of the US currency, since the Senate is still far from agreeing on the budget for 2018.
At the same time, only positive news is coming from the EU. The beginning of negotiations on the creation of a "big coalition" of the PSD and CDU / CSU gives hope to investors that the political crisis in Germany will be resolved. Released yesterday, data on economic sentiment from ZEW surpassed market expectations. However, the statistics published today were rather neutral. PMI of the German manufacturing sector came in at 61.2 with a forecast of 63.2, and this indicator for the services sector exceeded the forecast level of 55.6 and was 57.0. The same situation is with the PMI in the EU, the indicator characterizing the manufacturing sector turned out to be less than the forecast, 59.6 versus 60.4, while the PMI of the services sector outperformed expectations 57.6 against 56.5. The pair reacted to these figures by the gain to the area of ​​1.2355 and further 1.2363. However, it is very likely that this upward impulse was made to achieve better positions with the goal of fixing profits on the eve of the ECB meeting, therefore, during the remaining time we can observe a moderate decline in the currency pair.
The chart retains the bullish trend, and the current situation has to continue to move up, as the bulls managed to gain a foothold above the mark of 1.2300. However, buying a currency pair is already late; we can only wait for the reversal signals, which at the time of writing has not yet been obserrved. We'll get it only if the price falls below 1.2335, which can be a good intraday reversal signal.
Our recommendations: consider buying as a price drop in the area of ​​1.2300
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Mixed session for Asian stock indexes; new data in focus

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 09:37 Labels: this is interesting , Wall Street , what’s next

Top stock indexes in Asia were mixed on Wednesday following previous session gains, with the dollar extending into negative territory against its major rivals.

Earlier today, the Japanese trade balance for December came in at 359 billion yen, falling short from an initially estimated 530 billion yen surplus. The adjusted trade balance was at 0.09 trillion yen, compared to 0.27 trillion eyed. Exports rose by 9.3 percent against a 10.1 percent seen.

The Nikkei 225 was down by approximately one percent after reaching a 26-year high in the prior session. Downward pressure was underpinned by a falling greenback, which makes the yen more expensive and therefore weighs on Japanese exporters.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was higher by half a percent, with the country’s top four financial institutions rising, despite mining components were down.

Asian equities followed a mixed close in Wall Street, with the Nasdaq ending at a fresh record high on the back of Netflix’s better-than-expected corporate earnings report for the fourth-quarter, while the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 failed to secure gains.

<<< Asian Stock Indexes at 07:50 GMT >>>

Australia ASX S&P                +44.50            +0.73%           6,150.70
Shanghai Composite             +45.14            +1.29%           3,546.50
Hong Kong Hang Seng          +476.95          +1.47%           32,870.36
Japan Nikkei 225                   +307.82          +1.29%           24,124.15
Taiwan TSEC 50 Index          +21.65            +0.19%           11,253.11

<<< Next in Europe >>>

Traders will be looking at to the release of German PMI indexes for manufacturing and services sectors as of 08:30 GMT, and for the Eurozone at 09:00 GMT.

<<< Next in the United States >>>

Investors will be paying attention to manufacturing and services PMIs for January in the US as of 14:45 GMT, as well as existing home sales at 15:00 GMT.


The Energy Information Administration will present its official crude and refined products inventories as usual at 15:30 GMT.
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Bollinger Bands: Are They Any Good?

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 09:34 Labels: this is interesting , what’s next

If you are giving your first steps in trading, we are almost entirely sure you’ve heard about “Bollinger Bands”. However, the large amount of information out there can be confusing.

For that reason, we put together a simple, yet useful explanation about them with a practical approach so you can start using them right away. Let’s begin!

Basic notions

Bollinger Bands - a technical indicator developed by John Bollinger to gauge the volatility of a given asset. The tool is especially useful to identify periods of market stress.

How it works

The two bands that integrate the indicator expand when market is facing high volatility, while in periods of quietness they create a narrower channel.

What you should look at

If you were expecting to get a mathematical formula here, you came to the wrong blog. In fact, we think it is much easier and practical for you to get the sense of how it works and how you can apply Bollinger Bands in your trading.

Bollinger Bounce

The most common idea behind Bollinger Bands and why many traders use this simple indicator is because price tends to always return to the middle of the channel.

When the price reaches the top of the channel, it will most likely turn downwards. The same logic goes viceversa. Therefore, a trader could speculate an open a bullish position when price hits the lower band and set a take profit order near the upper band.

In this case, a trader uses Bollinger bands as resistance / support levels. If you are trading in short timeframes, using Bollinger bands might not be the best indicator for you and you could see many breaks above and below them that will distort your signals.

Bollinger Squeeze


When price goes beyond the upper or lower band, causing the channel to quickly expand. If the price breaks above the upper band, you should expect a rather solid upward extension. And the same goes for a break of the lower band.
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Tuesday, 23 January 2018

EUR / USD - consolidation in a narrow range continues

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 16:11 Labels: trading tips , what’s next

EUR / USD is trading with a sideway focus on the background of the absence of significant macroeconomic data. Neither in the US, nor in Europe yesterday, were important statistical data released these days, so the market participants worked mainly on the events that took place last week. Today, the US news calendar is also empty. In Europe, the latest significant news is the PSD's vote for negotiating with the CDU / CSU. In the United States, it is the suspension of the work of the government due to the lack of coordination on the budget. However, both of this news had a limited impact on the market. In the first case, only agreement was obtained to hold negotiations, which may still last a fairly long and it is not known how they eventually end, although the chances of success have increased significantly. In the second case, the internal political struggle of Republicans and Democrats is permanent and the market is already largely accustomed to these events, therefore, it reacts more and more weakly. The budget in the US was to be approved as early as October 1, 2017, but all that so far has been done is to achieve the interim financing of the government (the Senate approved measures to extend the funding until February 8).
More important for the markets are meetings of central banks, which are due in late January (ECB meets this week, the Fed on the next).
Today Europe is the main newsmaker. The data was published on the index of economic sentiment from ZEW. In Germany, this indicator came in at 20.4 (forecast 17.8), and for the EU as a whole, the data came out at 31.8 (forecast 29.7). The currency pair reacts positively to these data as might be expected.
On the chart, for now, we see a consolidation of the price in the range of 1.2185-1.2300. The price and technical indicators act quite passively, so today we are waiting for the continuation of the price consolidation in the outlined range. We can expect stronger moves on the currency pair  only after the breakdown and fixing the price out of  the side way channel 1.2185-1.2300.
Our recommendations: Out of the market
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Government Shutdown Off: Democrats Support Budget Extension

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 11:46 Labels: this is interesting , what’s next


The US Senate was able to pass a short-term spending bill to end the federal government’s shutdown that started on Friday evening due to an ongoing disagreement between Democrats and Republicans over migration policies.

The budget extension would provide funds for the Trump administration through 8 February, while contemplating a six-year extension of Chip, health insurance program that covers nearly 9 million children across the United States.

"We will vote today to reopen the government," Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said.

The chamber passed the bill with 81 votes in favor, 18 against. However, the bill still needs to face a final passage in the House and signature of President Donald Trump.

Schumer explained this decision comes as Democrats were promised that the Senate will take under consideration some immigration issues, such as the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, commonly known as simply DACA.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said debate on immigration could move forward before February 8. Democrats are looking for a bipartisan bill that will avoid massive deportations of thousands of immigrants brought to the country illegally as children.

“This immigration debate will have a level playing field at the outset and an amendment process that’s fair to all sides,” McConnell recognized in a speech on Monday.


News are expected to provide support for stock markets and the US dollar alike. However, the American currency will remain possibly under pressure due to the upcoming monetary policy meetings in other countries later this week.
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Asian equity indexes higher as US gov shutdown ended; BOJ keeps policy steady

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 11:31 Labels: this is interesting , Wall Street , what’s next

Asian equity indexes were mostly higher on Tuesday following a solid lead from Wall Street as lawmakers were able to revert the government shutdown.

Earlier in the day, the Bank of Japan announced its keeping current monetary policy configuration steady after a two-day meeting. This decision cause little market volatility as it was a widely expected outcome.

Wall Street top three stock indexes were able to end Monday’s session in green territory as the US Congress put an end to a the federal government shutdown for at least three weeks.

President Donald Trump signed a bill aimed to extend funding the administration through February 8. In return to Democrats support, the Senate will debate on immigration matters.

The Dow Jones industrial average added 142.88 points or 0.55 percent to finish at 26,214.60, marking a new all-time high. The S&P 500 was up 0.8 percent at 2,832.97, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite also ended at an all-time peak, at 7,408.03.

Market participants also monitored the corporate earnings season. To date, nearly 68 percent of the S&P 500 companies have shown better-than-expected earnings this season, and 85 percent of those have reported stronger sales figures than initially estimated.

<<< Asian Stock Indexes at 07:50 GMT >>>

Australia ASX S&P                +44.50            +0.73%           6,150.70
Shanghai Composite             +45.14            +1.29%           3,546.50
Hong Kong Hang Seng          +476.95          +1.47%           32,870.36
Japan Nikkei 225                   +307.82          +1.29%           24,124.15
Taiwan TSEC 50 Index          +21.65            +0.19%           11,253.11

<<< Next in Europe >>>

Today, attention will be directed mainly to the European economic front. Germany’s ZEW current conditions and economic sentiment  for January is due for release as of 10:00 GMT.

Traders will also keep an eye on an meeting of European Finance ministers scheduled later in the day. And the United Kingdom is expected to show CBI industrial trends orders at 11:00 GMT.

<<< Next in the United States >>>

The American Petroleum Institute will present its latest crude and refined products stockpiles estimates at 21:35 GMT on Tuesday.


Analysts are forecasting a 1.3 million barrels reduction in weekly crude supplies; a 2.440 million barrels increase in gasoline stocks; and a 1.580 million barrels draw in distillate inventories.
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Monday, 22 January 2018

EUR/USD – the week starts with the consolidation

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 16:37 Labels: trading tips , what’s next

In the absence of important economic news, all the attention of market participants is focused on political events taking place in Germany and the United States. EUR / USD is traded predominantly within sideway focus. So far, these trends will continue to be present in the current week. The price is rather weakly reacting to everything that is happening, although amid recent successes in achieving domestic political stability in Germany and vice versa the aggravation of the domestic political struggle in the United States, a single European currency should receive a strategic advantage.
After the statements of the PSD head-Martin Schulz that re-elections are not the best scenario for the party, many market participants are almost sure that eventually the parties will find a compromise and a "big coalition" of PSD with the CDU / CSU will be formed in Germany.
At the same time, concerns of the opposition between the Republican to the Democrats in the US and the absence of any news and comments from the Fed continue to exert pressure on the American currency. The internal political struggle has already led to the suspension of the work of the government and even if today the Senate will be able to extend government funding until February 8, the problem will not be solved, but only delayed for a short time. In such  situation, it is difficult to count on strengthening the US currency given the absence of important economic news this week.
The sellers of the EUR / USD pair can only hope for Mario Draghi, who can cool the bulls pressure a little, at a press conference scheduled for Thursday, as some ECB representatives started sending signals to the market last week that the regulator will not long endure the continued euro gains.
 On the four-hour chart today, we see the price consolidation within the boundaries of the horizontal channel formed last week 1.2185 - 1.2300. At the same time, we do not yet have any signals of price exit from the current outset. Technical indicators are at their mid-range values ​​hinting at the possible continuation of consolidation.
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