Thursday, 21 September 2017

Gold - $ 1291- $ 1300 is strong resistance area

Posted by Valentine at 18:25 Labels:

The results of yesterday's trading turned out to be disappointing for bulls, but at the same time, the situation developed according to our expectations. On Wednesday, the gold market continued its decline (amid FED news), dropped to $ 1296, where the bulls tried to seize the initiative as the market rebounded somewhat, and completed the day above the key $ 1300.

Trading started today the same way it ended the day before. The market opened in a negative way, the price got under pressure and in the constant attempts to roll back the bears pushed the market into the area of 1287-1291. The situation is extremely interesting, when gold trades near the important level of 1300.70 - 1291. Let me remind you that this is a pierced resistance, which can now become a good support.

At the time of writing, the bulls did not take any attempt to seize the initiative. But we do not think that such a psychologically important level will be surrendered without a fight. The best strategy will be to wait for today's closure and analyze the day's candle. At the same time, we expect that bulls will try to wrest the initiative and at least form a good pullback to 1305. At the moment, the opening of long positions with short stops appears to be a risky but very profitable strategy.

From a technical point of view, the current moment is a very important point. Closure above 1300 and bullish candle model, will signal the end of the corrective pullback and a likely reversal back to general upward trend. And vice versa. If the gold closes under the level of 1300 and fix there on the daily and, especially, weekly timeframes, the upward scenario can be considered complete and the way for middle terms shorts will be open.  

High-risk longs in the support zone 1290 - 1300.

EUR / USD - despite USD dollar gains, the European currency looks stable

After the results of the Fed meeting, the disposition on the market may change in favor of the US dollar. In spite of the fact that the Fed did not surprise the markets, the confirmation of the monetary policy normalization had a significant support for US dollar. At the same time, it is not yet clear how long the market will play out the last meeting of the Fed. Earlier it was assumed that, the US dollar gain will be short-term and it should be used for selling USD.

As for EUR/USD, attempts to break above 1.2000 were restrained by FOMC meeting expectations, after which USD bulls moved on the offensive. As a result, the pair completed yesterday's trading with decent losses and closed the day below 1.1900. Minimums were marked at 1.1860, which is not so bad.

Now there is an interesting and very important point. The pair has descended into a strong support area, where it is currently trading today. The fact that so far only one candle has closed under 1.1900 still does not say anything. Below such an important level, it is better to consolidate with at least three consecutive daily candles. The price zone 1.1875-1.1825 is historically very strong and often provided both support and resistance. We expect the pair to recover to the local highs at 1.2090.

Longs in the support area at 1.1830 - 1.1870

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