May 2017

Friday, 26 May 2017

Weekly Outlook: May 29 - Jun 2

3 comments : Posted by Anonymous at 12:11 Labels: weekly outlook

Monday
Asia: The week begins in Japan, with household spending, jobs/applications ratio and retail sales for April all set for release at 23:50 GMT. On Monday, markets in the United States, the United Kingdom and China will remain closed due to different holidays. Traders should be aware that low volatility and liquidity levels are very likely in that day.

Tuesday
Europe: France wakes up earlier than everyone else in the European Union on Tuesday, with a fresh reading on the first-quarter gross domestic product set for release at 05:30 GMT and consumer spending for April as of 06:45 GMT. Germany will present its May report on consumer inflation at 12:00 GMT.
United States: The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its Core CPE index and personal spending for April at 12:30 GMT, with analysts pointing at 0.1 and 0.4 percent respectively. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence for May is expected at 14:00 GMT. Economists are forecasting a 119.5 reading, down from a previous 120.3 points.

Wednesday

Asia: After Japan’s industrial production for April is published ten minutes to midnight on Tuesday, China will officially kick off Wednesday’s session with May’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI at 01:00 GMT.
Europe: Germany will set the tone in Europe, with April’s retail sales at 06:00 GMT, which is expected to notch down by 0.2 percent. Unemployment rate comes two hours later, with expectations for a steady reading at 5.8 percent. Eurozone’s CPI and unemployment rate will also be released at 09:00 GMT. Analysts are predicting a 1.5 percent and 9.5 percent for each.
United States: The only relevant indicator will be pending home sales for April at 14:00 GMT.

Thursday
Asia: China is set to release its Caixin manufacturing PMI for May at 01:45 GMT.
Europe: Switzerland will publish a final reading on the first-quarter GDP at 05:45 GMT. That’s not all, retail sales for April are due at 07:30 GMT. German manufacturing PMI for May is scheduled at 07:55 GMT, with 59.4 seen. Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI for May is due at 08:30 GMT and economists are pointing at no changes in the current 57.0 points. Half an hour later, same report from the United Kingdom.
United States: Manufacturing continues to be at center stage, with the Purchase Management Index for May going public at 13:45 GMT. The Institute of Supply Management is set to release its own manufacturing index at 14:00 GMT. Also, attention will be directed to ADP nonfarm employment change at 12:15 GMT, with 185.000 jobs build on the watch, and crude stockpiles from the US Energy Information Administration at 15:00 GMT.

Friday
United States: Strong day for data in the US session, with market participants set to receive nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for May as of 12:30 GMT. Analysts are pointing at a 183.000 jobs increase and a tick higher for unemployment to 4.5 percent.

Fort Financial Services

What’s next? – GOLD, OIL 26.05.17

3 comments : Posted by Anonymous at 10:51 Labels: what’s next

GOLD
Gold futures edged up in Asian hours on Friday, but gains were limited due to the recovery of the US dollar in the light of freshly published Federal Reserve May minutes.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery was up 0.44 percent to trade at $1261.90 a troy ounce as of 07:30 GMT.
The yellow metal is currently finding support around the $1,247.60 mark, its May 24 low and resistance around $1,263.80, the peak reached on May 23.
The US dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, was up 0.09 percent at 97.24 earlier this morning. The dollar is currently recovering from strong loses, especially as economic data is suggesting stronger labor market conditions.
As bullion is a dollar-denominated commodity, a stronger currency makes it less appealing for investors holding foreign currencies, while dampening demand for safe-haven assets.
The Federal Reserve minutes showed that officials are considering a reduction of its massive balance sheet later this year. For that purpose, FOMC representatives believe using monthly caps to limit bond sales monthly is the right way to do it. Also, unwinding Fed’s balance sheet suggests higher borrowing costs are still to come, rising expectations for a rate hike in June.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in an 87.7 percent chance of a rate move at the June monetary policy meeting by 25 basis points to 1.00 - 1.25 percent.

OIL
Oil prices fell in Asian trade on Friday, extending into red territory as market players took profits following a widely anticipated extension of OPEC output cuts for an additional nine months.
The US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $49.12 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 0.49 percent from its prior close. The international Brent crude oil futures rose 0.72 percent to trade at $51.83 a barrel as of 07:20 GMT.
Market analysts said recovery is on the way, while signaling that there has been a clear overreaction to the deal extension. Benchmarks dropped below the $50 mark overnight, losing more than 5 percent by the end of the day in what can be described as a massive sale off.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and aligned external producers, such as Russia, agreed to extend the deal until March 2018. The oil cartel said cut levels will remain the same as in the first six-month period, 1.8 million barrels per day.
Crude prices have been moving upwards lately on speculation that OPEC and its allies would take a more aggressive approach in the deal, promoting even deeper cuts for members. As pact conditions remained steady, market players felt disappointed.
Moving into details, Nigeria and Libya will be exempted from cutting their production levels, while Iran has been allowed to keep its current output without any reductions. Iran has reentered the oil market last year after strong sanctions imposed in the light of its nuclear program. The nation has repeatedly said that it cannot afford to sacrifice market share.
Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih explained that current cut dimensions were enough to rebalance supply levels by the end of 2017. He also pointed out that larger US shale production is still to come, but that hopefully that factor won’t derail OPEC-led efforts.

Fort Financial Services

Protecting your portfolio against terrorism

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 14:14 Labels: fundamental review

Twenty-two people were killed and more than a hundred suffered injuries in a blast at the Manchester Arena on Monday. This attack, claimed by the Islamic State, is the most recent terrorist atrocity, but unfortunately and most probably, not the last one.
The rise of extremism in Middle East has become a real threat for the Western world and not only for citizens, but also for their finances. That’s right, financial markets are usually reacting on terrorist attacks almost immediately, showing how investors feel about future stability.
Taking a deeper look at the Manchester case, we saw global markets staying quite resilient on Tuesday, an attitude that surprised analysts. These attacks boost fear and concern among investors, which ultimately translates into lower exposure to risky assets, promoting demand for safe-havens such as gold, yen or euro.
However, every new attack that hits world markets leaves a visible scar, which outlines a simple model that could be benefiting terrorists. As the natural response to attacks is to move south, terrorists have been speculating on massive sales. After a few weeks, markets recover but terrorist organizations go home with big bucks on their pockets. What about you?
Ok. So… keeping in mind that nobody (among regular people) can actually anticipate a terrorist attack, it’s pretty difficult to determine a precise method to protect your investment against it. Nevertheless, there are a few simple steps that may help you reduce considerably risk exposure under threatening situations.

Be psychologically strong
While nobody can predict the way financial markets react on terrorism, you can decide how to react on it. It’s your own decisions that will make a difference between going down or up, so controlling your emotions is indeed of great importance for success.
Try not to overreact. Don’t jump off the bridge because everybody does it. It’s historically proven that after attacks, markets recover to even higher levels in weeks, may be months.

Always diversify
The fact that world markets sink in the light of terrorist attacks, doesn’t mean all stocks are actually falling. Insurance companies, tourist operators, hotels are some of those negatively affected by attacks, but there is another side to the matter. Airlines, gun manufacturers, cybersecurity ETFs are options that may turn green in the event of a tragedy.

Fort Financial Services

What’s next? – GOLD, OIL 25.05.17

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 10:44 Labels: what’s next

GOLD

Gold futures moved higher in European hours on Thursday, reaching three week highs as the US dollar eased after the Federal Reserve minutes anticipated further rate hikes and the reduction of its massive $4.5 balance sheet later this year.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery was up 0.34 percent to trade at $1257.40 a troy ounce as of 07:15 GMT.
Minutes from the Fed's last policy meeting showed policymakers agreed they should hold off on raising interest rates until it was clear a recent U.S. economic slowdown was temporary, though most said a hike was coming soon.
According to the minutes, members of the Federal Open Market Committee discussed steps to progressively scale down its huge bond holdings. Fed officials agreed to set monthly caps to limit the amount of bonds available for sale.
Analysts have pointed out that reducing the balance sheet ultimately means rising borrowing costs for the economy. According to CME Group’s FedWatch program, traders are expecting the regulator to hike interest rates in June.
The dollar index, which gauges the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was 0.22 percent higher to trade at 96.93 earlier this morning.
The yellow metal, a dollar-denominated commodity, is sensitive to interest rate moves, as they raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.

OIL

Oil prices turned higher in anticipation of an OPEC meeting on Thursday. During the event, oil cartel officials are expected to vote on the extension of output cuts into 2018.
The US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $51.74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 0.74 percent from its prior close. The international Brent crude oil futures rose 0.80 percent to trade at $54.39 a barrel as of 07:30 GMT.
Prices have been increasing as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) showed consensus with independent producers, such as Russia, to extend the reduction of 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) until March 2018, adding an extra nine-month period to the initial six months agreed in November 2016. Some analysts even pointed at a 12-month extension.
The cuts are actually set to stay in place, at 1.8 million barrels per day, but a deeper, more aggressive reduction could be discussed during the gathering in Vienna later in the day.
Several industry consultants said extending the deal, despite an initial spike, would have little effect on the price forecast for this year, which is now standing at an average $55 for Brent.
Also, analysts believed that extending the pact for nine months would result in growing US shale production by 950 thousand barrels per day. From mid-2016, production in the United States has added more than 10 percent in order to take advantage of OPEC’s falling market share.
Yesterday, the US Energy Information Administration said crude inventories dropped 4.4 million barrels in the week ended May 19, above a forecasted reduction of 2.4 million barrels.

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No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 17:16 Labels: about us

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US markets to open mix as investors await Fed minutes

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 14:55 Labels: Wall Street

US equity index futures pointed mixed in pre-session hours on Wednesday, as investors shifted their attention to the April minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee.
Wall Street top three indexes closed higher on Tuesday as President Donald Trump moved forward with his first international tour, cooling down speculation that he will face strong opposition to his tax reform and other economic initiatives in Congress.
The Dow Jones industrial average added 45 points, with investment bank Goldman Sachs on top of advancers. The S&P 500 also closed in green territory, recovering almost completely from its worst performing session of the year. The Nasdaq composite was able to end higher, although it was considerably shaken by Apple stocks, which plunged near the closing bell.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: +43.08 / +0.21% / 20,937.91
Standard & Poor’s 500: +4.40 / +0.18% / 2,398.42
Nasdaq Composite: +5.09 / +0.08% / 6,138.71

Washington’s scene is now divided in three parts. First, the political scandal surrounding the Trump administration over reports of an alleged interference of the President into an investigation of former FBI Director James Comey. Second, Trump’s international visits to Saudi Arabia, Israel and Palestine. Analysts believe the trip came in handy for the White House, as it changed the focus from domestic to international politics.
Yesterday, the government released a proposed budget for 2018. The document, which requires Congress approval, suggest selling 110,000 crude oil barrels per day through 2027. The new administration is planning a $3.6 trillion federal spending cut in the next decade.
Traders were also keeping an eye on Europe, where stocks remained positive despite a terrorist attack in the Manchester Arena that left 22 dead and dozens injured. In reaction to this event, Prime Minister Theresa May raised the threat level from severe to critical.
In economic news, the Commerce Department said new home sales dropped 11.4 percent in April to a seasonally adjusted annual 569,000 units, below the 610,000 units initially predicted.
Today, investors will be closely following the release of the Federal Reserve minutes at 18:00 GMT, which comes together with a speech from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. A bit earlier, existing home sales in the United States are expected as of 14:30 GMT. Crude oil inventories from the US Energy Information Administration are also due at that time.

Fort Financial Services

Investing in… populism?

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 12:22 Labels: this is interesting

The word ‘populism’ is now heard everyday around the world. From journalists to teenagers, this political trend has penetrated on societies and not only on those affected by extreme poverty.
Donald Trump and Marine Le Pen are just two great examples of how populism has become an alternative for first world voters, despite winning or losing elections.
While populism has proven to be quite an inefficient political platform for economic development, investors can take advantage of populist policies.
After studying several cases, such as Chavez’s Venezuela or the most recent Duarte’s Philippines, analysts defined three areas that populists are always caring about.

Infrastructure
Populists leaders tend to put infrastructure renovation and investment in first place. Want an example? Check Trump’s Make America Great Again policies. The idea behind is that all citizens should be happier with better roads, bridges, public transportation, etc.
In other words, investors could take an interest on companies providing construction services or raw materials, such as cement makers, steel producers, manufacturers, big engineering firms.

Labor market
Building strong labor market conditions is another priority of populist regimes, at least for some. While putting people to work and reaching full employment is considered a common objective for most governments around the world, no matter their political orientation, populists would go a step further, promoting special conditions for employers in order to boost hiring.
With this line of thinking, we could see big manufacturers in sectors such automobiles, telecommunications, transportation or construction receiving substantial benefits from the central authorities, meaning less taxes or favorable conditions for international deals.
Typically, these actions would target low-skilled workers, although some countries encourage community to take free courses, pushing them into high paycheck jobs. Better market conditions translate into more money in people’s pockets, which ultimately promotes higher consumption.

Defense
National security is without doubts a key aspect of the populist agenda. In this case, keep an eye on gun manufacturers, especially those supplying armies, or simply go for an ETF to cover up. With digital threats rising every hour, you could also include some cybersecurity and antivirus companies in your portfolio.

Fort Financial Services

What’s next? – GOLD, OIL 24.05.17

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 10:32 Labels: what’s next

GOLD
Gold prices eased in Asian trade on Wednesday as Moody's Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating from Aa3 to A1 and modified its outlook from negative to stable, arguing that slowing economic growth and higher debt levels are threatening the Asian giant.
In a statement, the agency said: "Moody's expects that economy-wide leverage will increase further over the coming years. The planned reform program is likely to slow, but not prevent, the rise in leverage, [...] The importance the authorities attach to maintaining robust growth will result in sustained policy stimulus, given the growing structural impediments to achieving current growth targets. Such stimulus will contribute to rising debt across the economy as a whole."
China, along with India, are the two biggest buyers of gold and industrial metals, and this decision has certainly weighed on economic expectations of participants.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery was down 0.44 percent to trade at $1250.00 a troy ounce as of 07:25 GMT.
Traders are currently focus on the release of April’s Federal Reserve minutes, which are due on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. Market players will be searching for hints on the next rate hike in a context of downbeat economic data and increasing geopolitical tension.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch program, 83.1 percent of traders are expecting the US central bank to move interest rates in June, up from a prior week 67 percent.
On the data front, Markit manufacturing PMI took players by surprise, plunging to its weakest point in eight months at 52.5. Its services PMI, on the contrary, advanced to 54, outperforming market analysts’ expectations.
Also, the US Commerce Department reported less-than-expected new home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual 569K units, while economists had forecasted 610K.

OIL

Oil benchmarks extended gains in Asian hours on Wednesday as an industry report showed refined products falling more than analysts initially estimated, although crude stockpiles haven’t decrease as much as forecasted.
The US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $51.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 0.27 percent from its prior close. The international Brent crude oil futures rose 0.39 percent to trade at $54.36 a barrel as of 07:25 GMT.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) said crude inventories reduced by 1.5 million barrels to 512.9 million barrels last week, while gasoline notched down by 3.15 million barrels and distillate products fell by 1.85 million barrels.
This report came in anticipation of official figures from the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday, with analysts pointing at a crude oil stockpiles drop of 2.419 million barrels. Distillates are seen falling 743K barrels and gasoline down by 1.19 million barrels.
Crude prices settled in green territory on Tuesday, close to a five-week high following API’s data and amid growing speculation that OPEC will extend its production cuts until March 2018.
The Organization of the Petroleum and Exporting Countries is gathering later this week in Vienna to vote whether to extend the deal beyond June. According to the oil cartel’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia, most members are in favour of moving forward with the initiative.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration presented a budget proposal, that contemplates selling half of the country’s 688 million-barrel oil reserve by 2027.

Fort Financial Services

Wall Street extends recovery as Trump trip moves forward; fresh data in focus

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 16:07 Labels: Wall Street

US equities were set for a higher open on Tuesday, as market participants looked ahead of fresh economic data and speeches from FOMC officials later in the day.
Markets ended in green territory on Monday, recovering from last week’s unexpected plunge over concerns that Trump won’t be able to deliver his top economic promises in the near term.
The Dow Jones industrial average added nearly 90 points by the end of the session, with Boeing and 3M moving ahead of others. Information technology supported the S&P 500 index, keeping its place as the best-performing sector this year. The Nasdaq composite rose by 0.82 percent.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: +89.99 / +0.43% / 20894.83
Standard & Poor’s 500: +12.29 / +0.52% / 2394.02
Nasdaq Composite: +49.92 / +0.82% / 6133.62

Investors kept an eye on Donald Trump, who continued his first international trip as President of the United States. The Republican leader was in Tel Aviv on Monday, visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Both leaders agreed for a closer cooperation to fight terrorism and promote peace, security and stability for the region. In this regard, Trump’s next stop will be with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to articulate peace and solve a historic conflict between countries.
Trump arrived to Israel after visiting Saudi Arabia, where he closed a multi-billion-dollar weapon deal that skyrocketed defense and military related stocks.
This trip served well the Trump administration to cool down a political scandal involving former FBI Director James Comey and his then-National Security advisor Michael Flynn. Reports saying Trump asked Comey to halt an investigation into Flynn over Russian influence on the presidential elections sent stocks to the ground, marking the worst session of this year so far.
Geopolitical tension in the Korean peninsula was also eyed by market players as Pyongyang successfully launched a middle-range ballistic missile. Kim Jong-un’s government announced that mass production of this precise missile is being analysed.
No major news were scheduled on Monday and Wall Street focused on several speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers ahead of Wednesday’s minutes release.

The agenda looks more promising today, with manufacturing and services PMI for May set at 13:45 GMT. New home sales for April are due as of 14:00 GMT. Again, FOMC Kashkari and Harker are taking the microphone this evening at 19:15 GMT and 21:00 GMT respectively.

Fort Financial Services

Are you a “green” investor?

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 11:55 Labels: trading tips

And don’t get wrong... by “green” I am not talking about your willingness to eat a beef steak. Green investments refer to businesses that focus on the conservation of natural resources, the development of alternative energy sources and other environmentally safe activities.
Examples? Water purification systems, solar energy panels, recycling efficiency, hydrogen or electric cars, low consumption lighting systems, among many others.
I know… “green” sounds a bit boring, but the real fact is that green investments can be even more attractive and riskier than regular top-tier stocks. Why? Because most of them are just starting off, working on completely out-of-the-cage products. If you pay attention, green stocks are usually defined by low revenues and big earnings valuations.
While green investments are not yet super popular among retail investor, you can easily find different options to include in your portfolio. For instance, if you are looking for low risk alternatives, you should look into government bonds or ETFs. In case “risk” is your second name, then you could contemplate mutual funds targeting green stocks.
Believe it or not, renewable energy, one of the most popular green investments, is now the fastest-growing energy sector worldwide, which calls for a stronger demand in 2017.
To help investors research alternative energy stocks, we're giving you a list of the best-performing clean energy stocks this year based on share-price growth.
In fact, the US Environmental Protection Agency estimates that by 2040, global energy demand will rise 25 percent, a projection impossible to reach unless renewable energy comes into play.
According to agency, wind energy is expected to grow by 118 percent, while solar energy is looking at an even greater potential expansion of 376 percent.
Traditional fossil energy sources are limited and overtime, we will all be forced to change for cleaner alternatives to move around, use our devices, etc. That’s precisely why putting a coin on the future might sound a bit crazy today, when headlines are determined by OPEC’s output cuts and increasing shale oil production in the United States.

Fort Financial Services

What’s next? – GOLD, OIL 23.05.17

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 11:02 Labels: what’s next

GOLD
Gold prices moved higher in Asian hours on Tuesday as an explosion at a music concert in Manchester killed more than twenty people and injured few dozens.
Police said the blast is being treated as a terrorist attack, adding that counter-terrorism police and intelligence agencies are collaborating in the investigation.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery was trading at $1254.10 a troy ounce as of 06:55 GMT.
The yellow metal settled higher on Monday, as the greenback extended losses, with the euro moving to its highest point in six months due to rising concerns over the Trump administration.
Based on that same topic, bullion rose more than 2 percent last week, as doubts that President Donald Trump won’t be able to deliver economic promises weighed on investors, increasing demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.
The dollar had one of its worst weeks this year, as expectations for implementing a long-awaited tax reform, deregulation initiatives and infrastructure spending spending vanished on political uncertainty. Several GOP members suggested an independent investigation into Trump.
Gold is very sensitive to changes in the US dollar. A weaker currency makes the precious metal more attractive for investors holding foreign currencies.

OIL
Oil benchmarks headed south in Asian trade on Tuesday as market players opted to take profits following a deadly explosion in Manchester, which killed more than twenty people and it’s being investigated as a potential terrorist attack.
The US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $50.67 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 0.90 percent from its prior close. The international Brent crude oil futures fell 0.84 percent to trade at $53.42 a barrel as of 06:55 GMT.
On Monday, a report of Goldman Sachs analysts warned investors that while extending OPEC-led cuts for a nine-month period could normalize OECD stockpiles next year, surplus remains a threat if key producers like Russia quickly recover their capacity once the deal is off.
"A nine-month extension would normalize OECD inventories by early 2018, in our view, but we see risks for a renewed surplus later next year if OPEC and Russia's production rises to their expanding capacity and shale grows at an unbridled rate," wrote Goldman’s team.
Crude futures settled in green territory on Monday amid rising expectations that OPEC and non-OPEC countries will extend production cuts until March 2017 later this week.
Iraqi Oil Minister Jabar Ali al-Luaibi confirmed on Monday that his nation has agreed to jump into this agreement and support the nine-month extension.
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih looked for a more aggressive rhetoric, assuring no resistance is expected when voting on the extension of the output cuts on May 25 in Vienna.
There are still no much details on conditions of the extension, but analysts believe the initial 1.8 million barrels per day could stand steel for the time being. The oil cartel and other independent producers agreed to shred 2 percent of global oil production for six month back in Nov ‘16.

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No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 12:43 Labels: company news

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How Trump scandal affects Fed interest rate hikes?

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 12:14 Labels: fundamental review

Yes or no? With all this Trump-Comey scandal going on, it’s more and more difficult to understand whether the Federal Reserve will continue to hike rates this year or take a step back and opt for a wait-and-see positioning.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, chances for a rate move at the Fed’s June 13-14 monetary policy meeting are currently standing at 78.5 percent, notably lower than almost 85 percent reached at the beginning of May.
The US central bank has said as much as three rate hikes are likely to take place this year. The first rate increase was made not too long ago, in March to be precise. In that opportunity, Fed authorities decided to raise by 25 basis points its short term interest rate, leaving it between a range of 0.75 and 1.00 percent.
Last week, UBS analysts modified its timing for the two rate hikes still pending for 2017, but they didn’t not change the amount of rate moves due to the political turmoil affecting the new administration.
"We are modifying our timing of the two rate hikes this year, from July and December to June and September, in view of the March Federal Open Market Committee minutes that noted that the reinvestment policy will likely change 'later this year'", said UBS team.
Economists have pointed out that June seems more like a natural choice for the FOMC, but September should be looked with more caution as some delays are not totally discarded and in that sense, December would look as a possible match.
The Federal Reserve has been very clear about its intention to tighten up monetary policy from now on. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester has recently said that economic indicators remained strong for the time being and little changes won’t affect their ultimate plan.
However, news pointing at Trump for allegedly asking former FBI Director James Comey to drop an investigation into his then-National Security advisor Michael Flynn had a considerable weigh on American equity markets. To be fair, damage hasn’t been light at all and the Dow Jones industrial average suffered the most, plunging more than 370 points.
As several GOP members and Democrats voiced critics over President Donald Trump and suggested an independent investigation on the issue, concerns increased that the Republican leader will find a hard wall to pass new legislation in the Congress, especially its long-awaited tax reform, deregulation measures and fiscal spending plan.
Despite internal politics and macro data not being at their best, policymakers kept an optimistic rhetoric at the May meeting. While the interest rate was held unchanged, the tone was surprisingly bullish. Not once, Fed Chairwoman said that small variations are not going to change the overall picture for the regulator, meaning June is still part of the game and big choices are just around the corner.

Fort Financial Services

What’s next? – GOLD, OIL 22.05.17

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 10:20 Labels: what’s next

GOLD

Gold futures were trading higher in early hours on Monday, with traders looking ahead of Federal Reserve minutes from its last policy meeting and a revised reading on the US gross domestic product for the first quarter of this year.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery was 0.04 percent 1254.10, to trade at $1250.70 a troy ounce as of 06:50 GMT.
The yellow metal settled higher on Friday, extending gains as the dollar came under significant pressure in reaction to a political scandal affecting US President Donald Trump and members of his administration.
Concerns that the Republican leader won’t be able to deliver his economic promises boosted demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. Bullion prices usually benefit from periods of high market stress, as traders try to safeguard their capital from uncertainty.
Last week, the US Justice Department appointed a former FBI Director to serve in a special counsel created to investigate an alleged coordination between the Trump presidential campaign and Moscow. The appointment followed Trump’s firing of FBI chief James Comey, who was leading an investigation on that same topic.
The US dollar index, which gauges the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, was at 97.17 this morning. The index closed 0.79 percent to the downside on Friday, swinging around a six-month low at 97.00. The index showed its worst performance since mid-2016, slipping more than two percent last week.
Investors will be paying close attention to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes in search for clues on the timing of the next rate hike. According to Fed funds tracked by CME Group’s FedWatch program, chances for a June hike are currently standing at 78.5 percent.

OIL
Oil futures were higher in Asian hours on Monday, with market players turning their heads to the next OPEC meeting later this week, while still cautious about upcoming inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration.
The US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $51.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 0.62 percent from its prior close. The international Brent crude oil futures soared 0.56 percent to trade at $53.91 a barrel as of 06:35 GMT. On weekly basis, WTI contracts added more than $2.49, while the London-based benchmark showed a $2.77 increase.
Crude benchmarks settled in green territory last week, adding more than five percent during the week on growing optimism that Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and independent producers will extend its output cuts agreement beyond the June deadline.
Last week, OPEC’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia and Russia have said the extension of the deal is the way to go at this stage. Both nations also proposed a nine-month renewal, instead of the previously outlined six-month duration. Oil ministers are gathering in Vienna on Thursday May 25 for a final vote on the output cuts deal.
Cut levels hasn’t been decided quite yet, although analysts believe the current 1.8 million barrels per day sound like a reasonable target to be continued until March 2018. OPEC has reported good compliance with the deal in the last few months.
On Wednesday, the Energy Department will release its weekly report on crude and refined products stockpiles. Last week, the agency reported a 1.75 million barrels drop in crude inventories for the week ended May 12. Analysts had forecasted a 2.4 million barrels drawdown. While the reduction was considerably below expectations, investors were satisfied with the downtrend.
Baker Hughes will present its weekly oil rig count on Friday. The last report showed a rise of 8 rigs to a total of 720, marking an eleventh-straight week of increase that leaves it at the highest point since April 2015.

Fort Financial Services

Tips from the richest people in the world - Bill Gates

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 18:33 Labels: motivation , success tips , this is interesting

“Never stop learning from your mistakes”.

Bill Gates - an American business magnate, investor and philanthropist. Together with Paul Allen co-founded Microsoft which became the world’s largest PC company. In 1987 Bill was first included in the Forbes list of the world’s wealthiest people. From 1995 till 2007, in 2009 and since 2014 he is known as the richest person in the world. Every minute he earns something like 6659 USD, not bad, isn’t it? Bill encourages everyone not to give up when facing a mistake and not take it as a failure but instead as a chance to start all over but differently. Successful people learn from their mistakes while others get defeated. Learn the lesson and move on.

FortFS agrees with Bill's opinion and encourages you not to give up and continue chasing your dream.

Weekly Outlook: May 22 - May 26

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 12:43 Labels: weekly outlook

Tuesday
Europe: The data front starts to build up with key economic data from Germany. The gross domestic product for the first quarter will be available as of 06:00 GMT, with expectations for a 0.6 percent quarterly build and a 1.7 percent expansion year-over-year. Business expectations and lfo business climate index for May are due at 08:00 GMT. Attention will also be directed to Bank of England Governor Mark Carney report on inflation against the UK’s Parliament Treasury Committee.
United States: New home sales for April are scheduled at 14:00 GMT, with analysts pointing at 611.000 units, down by 10.000 from the previous month reading.

Wednesday
Europe: Germany continues to set the tone with its GfK consumer climate for June at 06:00 GMT. Preliminary readings on the German manufacturing and services PMIs for May will be released as of 07:30 GMT, with expectations standing at 58.0 and 55.5 respectively. Later on, the Eurozone will present those same reports at 08:00 GMT, with 56.7 and 56.5 seen. Markit will also release its composite PMI. Analysts are seeing no change from the previous month 56.8.
United States: Mid-week comes loaded in the US session. Markit’s manufacturing and services PMIs for May are due at 13:45 GMT, with 53.0 eyed in both cases. In a separate report, the National Association of Realtors will show existing home sales for April, expected to notch down to 5.68 million from a prior 5.71 million reading. Investors will also be focusing on crude oil inventories from the US Energy Information Administration, to be available at 14:30 GMT. Last but not least, the Federal Reserve will present minutes from its latest monetary policy meeting. Market participants will be looking for hints on the timing of the next Fed rate hike, although expectations for a move in June continued to decline over Trump’s political scandal.

Thursday

Europe: The British Bankers' Association will present Mortgage Approvals as of 08:30 GMT. The report gauges the number of new mortgages approved by banks last month. Also in the United Kingdom, a preliminary gross domestic product for the first quarter is set to be available at that same hour.
United States: Goods trade balance for April is set for release at 12:30 GMT. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, trade deficit stood at $64.23 billion in March.
Asia: Japan is expected to release its national core CPI for April and Tokyo’s core CPI for May. Both reports are coming at 23:30 GMT, which corresponds to Friday’s Asian session already.

Friday
United States: Heavy data is ahead for the last session in US markets, with durable goods orders for April, forecasted at minus 1 percent, and a preliminary Q1 GDP, seen at 0.8 percent, scheduled at 12:30 GMT. The University of Michigan is preparing consumer expectations and sentiment for May as of 14:00 GMT.

Fort Financial Services

What’s next? – GOLD, OIL 19.05.17

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 10:32 Labels: what’s next

GOLD
Gold prices extended gains in early trading on Friday as a new corruption scandal in Brazil weighed on market sentiment, while investors saw less chances of a rate hike next month as the political uncertainty deepened around the Trump administration.
Brazil's President Michel Temer is now under investigation for an alleged payment to a former Senate colleague. Accusation was issued by one the largest newspapers in the country. Temer said in a statement that he "never authorized payments to anyone to stay quiet."
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery traded at $1250.70 a troy ounce as of 07:20 GMT.
The yellow metal settled to the downside on Thursday evening, with upbeat US manufacturing and initial jobless claims data providing some support to bull players.
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at a seasonally adjusted 38.8, above a previous month reading of 22.0 and expectations for a reduction to 19.5.
The Labor Department said on Thursday that the number of US citizens filing for unemployment benefits in the week ended May 12 fell by 4,000, leaving the total count at 232,000.
Meanwhile, Washington remained under heavy scrutiny regarding President Donald Trump’s asserted interference in an investigation of former FBI Director James Comey into his then-national security advisor Michael Flynn.
As the Federal Reserve June monetary meeting gets closer, investors are carefully listening to all available remarks from FOMC members. Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester said on Tuesday that jobs and inflation are still close to Fed’s goals and that there shouldn’t be any issues not to continue with a gradual rate normalization process.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, chances for a rate move next month increased to 78.5 percent after falling close to ten percent in light of political uncertainty in the US.

OIL
Oil prices moved higher Asian hours on Friday as traders awaited a new weekly rig count in the United States, with WTI trading notably close to the $50 mark amid strong speculation that OPEC will extend its output cuts beyond June.
US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $49.97 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 0.62 percent from its prior close. The international Brent crude oil futures soared 0.55 percent to trade at $52.80 a barrel as of 07:20 GMT.
Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes is set to release the latest US rig count as of 17:00 GMT. Last week, the company showed a seventeenth-straight week build of 9 oil rigs, leaving the total count at 712 units, the highest point since mid-2015.
Oil benchmarks settled in green territory on Thursday, recovering about one percent during the session, as players were increasingly optimistic about OPEC-led output reduction agreement extending to March 2018 at the May 25 meeting in Vienna.
Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Kuwait, Russian and other producers have expressed support to the idea of extending the deal for a nine-month period.
Earlier this week, the US Energy Information Administration said crude oil stockpiles dropped by 1.75 million barrels in the week ended May 12, compared to expectations for a 2.4 million barrels drawdown. Data was positively interpreted by market players, providing support.
On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency warned that OPEC-led efforts to flight oversupply may fail even renewing the supply-reduction deal.

Fort Financial Services

The two most common questions for oil traders

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 12:19 Labels: trading tips

Among the vast diversity of commodities available for trading out there, crude oil is one of the most popular and profitable alternatives. And let’s see why…
Crude oil refers to unrefined petroleum, which is a mixture of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic components. This commodity can indeed be used to produce well-known things as gasoline and many other kinds of combustibles. It’s worth noting that crude is a nonrenewable resource. In other words, a time will come when we won’t be able to pump oil from the ground anymore (god help us!). Hopefully, that’s not happening any soon and new clean alternatives like solar energy will become more accessible for the public.

A bit of context
The “black gold”, although sometimes is yellow, has been losing value in the last few years. In 2016, crude oil benchmarks touched historic lows as increasing US shale production created a deep oversupply situation in the market.
In order to prevent moving into unknown territories, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) together with key independent producers such as Russia agreed to cut their production levels in 1.8 million barrels per day for the first semester of this year. A deal is likely to be extended until March 2018 as Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s top producers, says the job is not quite done yet.
Keep your eyes wide open for the next OPEC meeting in Vienna on May 25. In case the oil cartel votes in favor of extending the agreement, crude prices could surge substantially.

Question 1: What’s the difference between BRENT and WTI?
BRENT: Crude oil that comes from the North Sea is usually called “Brent” type. It’s a reference price for oil in Europe, Africa and the Middle East. It’s sources from the United Kingdom, and some northern nations such as Norway and Denmark. In recent years, Brent has become the most popular reference for world crude prices.
WTI: West Texas Intermediate crude oil refers to a cheaper type of oil, also known as sweet crude. To enter in this category, oil should contain less than 0.5 percent sulfur. It tends to be used for gasoline, diesel and heating oil. Futures of the WTI count on high liquidity and provide great trading opportunities for energy sector traders. It’s typically affected by weekly inventories reports from EIA and API.

Question 2: What’s the difference between EIA and API stockpiles reports?
EIA: The Energy Information Administration publishes every Wednesday at 14:30 GMT (changes apply in case of holidays) official crude and refined products stockpiles. Data is relevant for oil traders as it shows the level of activity of US drillers. If reserves are higher, it means producers are drilling more oil faster, otherwise, the count goes down. At this stage, the report is specially useful to see how US drillers are adapting to OPEC-led output cuts. The impact of EIA’s figures is stronger than API data.
API: The American Petroleum Institute releases crude and refined products stockpiles every Tuesday in anticipation of official data. API’s bulletin tends to show positive correlation with EIA’s data, but not always. Only few weeks ago, markets were surprised as the industry report said inventories increased, while official data later showed a totally unexpected drawdown.

Fort Financial Services

What’s next? – GOLD, OIL 18.05.17

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 10:08 Labels: what’s next

GOLD
Gold futures moved higher in Asian hours on Thursday, as market participants migrated to safe-haven assets in reaction to increasing concerns over the Trump administration and weaker-than-expected economic reports from the US economy.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery added 0.14 percent to trade at $1260.40 a troy ounce as of 01:45 GMT.
As political uncertainty continued to weigh on market sentiment and pressure equities, traders decided to leave aside risky assets for the time being. Reports exposed President Donald Trump asking former FBI Director James Comey to suspend an investigation on his then-National Security Advisor Mike Flynn.
Investors fear that political tension between and inside his own party will derail plans for the tax reform, deregulation and higher infrastructure spending, which have been key market drivers since the November presidential election in 2016.
The political sphere also had effects on the dollar value. The US Dollar Index, which gauges the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, reached a six-month lows at 97.43, losing 0.63 percent during the session.
The yellow metal is denominated in US dollars, making it very sensitive to currency moves. In this scenario, bullion prices surged as it becomes less expensive for foreign investors.
Meanwhile, expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the June monetary policy meeting continued to decline in light of the context. According to Fed funds tracked by CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing a 69.2% chance of an interest rate move next month.

OIL
Oil benchmarks edged down in early trading on Thursday, following a substantial rise in light of a new drop in US crude inventories, marking a sixth-consecutive weekly drawdown.
US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $48.89 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 0.37 percent from its prior close. The international Brent crude oil futures eased 0.34 percent to trade at $52.03 a barrel as of 01:45 GMT.
According to the latest report from the US Energy Information Administration, crude oil stockpiles fell by 1.75 million barrels in the week ended May 12, against expectations for a 2.4 million barrels reduction. Although data was below forecast, it confirmed a negative trend.
Taking a look at refined products, gasoline reserves notched down in 413.000 barrels, compared to an projected draw of 731.000 barrels. Distillate products dropped by 1.94 million barrels, above expectations for a 1 million barrels decrease.
Meanwhile, investors continued to look ahead of the next OPEC meeting in Vienna. On May 25, the oil cartel is set to decide whether to extend the output cuts agreement or not.
However, it seems more and more countries are coming around in support to the deal. Kuwait, Iraq, Venezuela, Oman, Saudi Arabia have all expressed their pro-extension opinions.
Earlier this week, even Russian President Vladimir Putin said the output cuts were the right way to go in order to stabilize oil prices and improve market conditions worldwide.

Fort Financial Services

Wall Street indexes to open lower amid political turmoil

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 15:07 Labels: Wall Street

US equity index futures were set for a lower open on Wednesday as a political turmoil in the United States continued to weigh on market sentiment.
The Washington Post reported that President Donald Trump asked former FBI Director James Comey to stop the investigation that targeted his national security advisor at the time, Michael Flynn. Media outlets said the memo that includes this conversation is about two pages long and contains lots of relevant details on the matter.
Allegations on Trump opening up highly classified information on the Islamic State were also released by the Washington Post earlier this week. On Tuesday, the Republican leader responded via Twitter that sharing details over this issue is the right thing to do.
“As President I wanted to share with Russia (at an openly scheduled W.H. meeting) which I have the absolute right to do, facts pertaining to terrorism and airline flight safety. Humanitarian reasons, plus I want Russia to greatly step up their fight against ISIS and terrorism.”
Many politicians, including members of the GOP, have suggested an independent investigation to judge on Trump’s alleged actions. In this regard, investors are increasingly concerned about the possible effects of these scandals to the long-awaited tax reform or deregulation initiatives.
The Dow Jones industrial average ended with a moderate loss, with UnitedHealth and Nike falling the most and Microsoft as the top advancer. The S&P 500 also moved into red territory, but the Nasdaq posted gains as major tech giants rose by the end of the session.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: -2.19 / -0.01% / 20979.75
Standard & Poor’s 500: -1.65 / -0.07% / 2400.67
Nasdaq Composite: +20.20 / +0.33% / 6169.87

In economic news, building permits for April came down by 2.5 percent to 1.229 million units, while housing starts marked its worst performance in nearly five months, falling 2.6 percent to 1.172 million units, compared to expectations for a rise to 1.260 million.
Political uncertainty in the world’s first economy has pressured the greenback. The US dollar index, which gauges the American currency against a basket of six major rivals, was down 0.16 earlier this morning, trading around 97.85.
Market participants are gradually flying away from risky assets and moving into safe-havens such as gold, euro and yen. The yellow metal futures were trading 0.83 percent higher at time of writing at 1,246.70 per troy ounce.
As there are no relevant publications due for today, investors will likely focus on the weekly crude inventory stats from the US Energy Information Administration at 14:30 GMT. Analysts are pointing at a 2.360 million barrels reduction in the week ended May 12.

Fort Financial Services

4 steps to successfully trade on the news

2 comments : Posted by Anonymous at 12:54 Labels: how to , trading tips

And here you are… trying to find out whether you’re more of a fundamental trader o a technical one, which approach suits best your needs and of course, your wallet.
Don’t be mistaken. Trading on the news is not less work than using technical indicators. Fundamental trading requires as much analyzes and patience as any other approach out there. And no, reading the newspaper every morning won’t be particularly helpful. Below you’ll find four of the best and simpler advices you could ask to make real profits on the news:

Trade the right pairs
In case you read the newspaper every morning, you can indeed be of some help here. How many times a week or even a month do you read news about The Philippines? Have you heard anything about the Philippine peso? Do you get the idea? In order to have some actual work to do when trading on the news, you have to select currency pairs that count on big liquidity. Yes… we all know that you are aware about the EUR/USD. But there are more: USD/JPY, AUD/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/CHF and it goes on and on.

Downscale your calendar
We live in the era of news. There are certain times, especially under market stress conditions, when news flow like the wind itself and it can be very, very overwhelming. Many traders believe trading on the news is less work on the computer. And then find themselves all day long standing in front of an online economic calendar. That’s a common mistake of newbies, which haven’t downscaled their calendars accordingly. Check on those filters and select only medium to high-impact events that have real effects on the pair. Otherwise, you’re losing precious time.

Manage risks effectively
Yeap. Again the same suggestion. And for a very good reason… your money. Fundamental trading, as we have already said above, is linked to highly volatile environments. And it shouldn’t surprise at this stage that volatility can play out perfectly well or terribly bad for your investments. Unless, you manage risks. How? Limit your order volume and set stop loss orders.

Don’t exclude technical indicators
Only total beginners would work entirely on one side or another. Real trading is about using every single thing available to take better decisions and make money. That’s why even if you are more of a fundamental trader, you cannot leave aside technical indicators. They are useful to determine momentum, support and resistance levels and check on how others are moving.

Fort Financial Services

What’s next? – GOLD, OIL 17.05.17

1 comment : Posted by Anonymous at 11:13 Labels: what’s next

GOLD
Gold futures extended gains in Asian hours on Wednesday as an ongoing political turmoil in the United States weighed on expectations for a long-awaited tax reform.
Apparently, there is a memo in which President Trump asked former FBI director James Comey to release an active investigation on his previous national security advisor Michael Flynn.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery rose 0.57 percent to trade at $1243.50 a troy ounce as of 07:10 GMT.
The yellow metal settled higher on Tuesday as political instability pressured the US dollar amid downbeat economic reports limiting expectations for economic growth in the second quarter.
Reports saying Trump disclosed highly classified information to Russia concerning the Islamic State also raised fears among investors as many politicians asked for an independent investigation on the matter.
President Trump said he has the right to share such information with his Russian counterparts as a way to ensure flight safety during operations in Syria and other territories.
Gold, a dollar-denominated commodity, benefits from a weaker greenback, making it a more competitive investment for investors holding foreign currencies.
On the data front, housing starts fell by 2.6 percent to its lowest point in five months, below expectations for a 3.7 percent increase. Industrial production in the US increased by 1 percent in April, above a forecasted rise of 0.4 percent.
According to Fed funds tracked by CME Group’s FedWatch tool, market participants are currently pricing in a 69.2% chance of an interest rate hike at the June policy meeting.

OIL
Oil prices moved lower in Asia on Wednesday following an industry report that showed increasing US crude stockpiles despite expectations for a drawdown.
US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $48.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 0.68 percent from its prior close. The international Brent crude oil futures eased 0.31 percent to trade at $51.49 a barrel as of 07:10 GMT.
On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute said US crude reserves grew by 882,000 barrels in the week ended May 12, against a forecasted reduction of 2.3 million barrels. The previous week, crude inventories had decreased in 5.789 million barrels.
Distillate inventories also came higher in 1.79 million barrels, while gasoline stocks dropped by 1.78 million barrels. Analysts had expected a 1.050 million barrels reduction in distillates products and a 731,000 barrels plunge in gasoline stockpiles.
These figures came in anticipation to the official report of the US Energy Information Administration, which is due on Wednesday at 14:30 GMT. Market analysts are currently pointing at 2.360 million barrels drop.
Crude benchmarks ended lower on Tuesday as market participants looked ahead of official inventories from the United States amid rising expectations for the extension of OPEC-led cuts.
Earlier this week, energy ministers from Saudi Arabia and Russia expressed their desire to extend the output cuts until March 2018 under same conditions that prevailed so far. Kuwait authorities also said the nine-month extension is the right way to go.

Fort Financial Services

OPEC-led output cuts much closer to be extended

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 13:36 Labels: fundamental review

Alright… finally some good news for those oil bulls. This week has started with a joint statement from Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih and his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak saying they are committed to “do whatever it takes” to fight crude supply overhang.
Wanna guess? Yeap… In other words, they are saying Saudi Arabia and Russia are going to fall for the extension of the OPEC-led output cuts agreement.
As it’s no surprise, comments from ministers came in only a week ahead of the next meeting from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna. On May 25, members of the oil cartel will vote whether to extend or not the deal signed last November.
However, this time it’s not for a six-month length, but for a nine-month period. As you heard it. The extension is set to last until March 2018, which is seen as a clear intend to rebalance supply levels, turn the game back to traditional producers and ultimately, prompt up prices.
Initially, the deal contemplated a 1.8 million barrels cut from global crude oil output, which accounts for nearly 2 percent of the world’s production. While most OPEC members jumped in, there were some exceptions made for countries such as Iran.
Last year, the Arabian country said it couldn’t afford to cut production as they had only entered the oil market briefly after lifting sanctions imposed over its nuclear weapons program.
“There has been a marked reduction to the inventories, but we're not where we want to be in reaching the five-year average, [...] we've come to the conclusion that the agreement needs to be extended,” said Falih on Monday.
According to Neil Atkinson, head of oil analysis at the International Energy Agency, the oil cartel and Russia have succeeded in fighting oversupply levels, which have been pressuring prices in the last few years.
Speaking at the Platts Crude Oil Summit in London last week, Atkinson said that the oil market could move into deficit if the OPEC deal is extended later this year.
“If you were to take the IEA’s oil report and look at estimates of what OPEC might do — it might rollover the existing levels — and assume no changes to the demand and supply outlook, you will find that as we move to the second half of the year it is likely that the surplus in demand and supply will grow,”
Energy ministers met on the sidelines of an international cooperation meeting hosted by China. Russian president Vladimir Putin, who attended to that conference, said extending oil production cuts was the right thing to do in order to keep prices steady.
“I met behind closed doors all the leaders of our biggest oil and gas companies, along with the energy minister. We discussed this theme, and we supported such a proposal,” said Putin.
There are no doubts Russia and Saudi Arabia have serious interest on passing the deal. Economy and politics are just the upper part of it. But remaining countries that should take part on the agreement have still significant power to turn things to other side.

Fort Financial Services

What’s next? – GOLD, OIL 16.05.17

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 10:36 Labels: what’s next

GOLD

Gold futures remained in green positive in early morning trading on Tuesday despite reports showing a slowdown in Chinese industrial output.
On Monday, the Asian country said industrial production grew 6.5 percent in April, below expectations for a 7.1 percent build. China is currently one of the world’s top importers of gold and it accounts for nearly forty percent of cooper global demand.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery rose 0.40 percent to trade at $1234.90 a troy ounce as of 07:00 GMT.
In economic news, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said its Empire State manufacturing index came in at -1.0 in May, down from a 5.2 reading in April.
Data weighed on the American currency index (USDX), which loss more than 0.20 percent to 98.84, favouring growth of dollar-denominated commodities such as gold.
As gold is a dollar-backed commodity, changes on the currency have great effect on the metal. A stronger currency makes gold a less appealing option for investors holding foreign money.
Geopolitical tension in the Korean peninsula remained in place, with investors taking careful steps as an unexpected move from Washington could become a reality any minute.
Last Friday, the yellow metal started to recover despite higher expectations of a rate hike at the Fed’s June monetary policy meeting.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, investors are currently pricing in more than a 70 percent chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase next month.

OIL
Oil futures edged up in Asian hours on Tuesday as market players weighed higher chances of an extension of the OPEC-led output cuts agreement beyond June, while looking ahead of fresh inventory data in the United States later in the day.
US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $49.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 0.41 percent from its prior close. The international Brent crude oil futures added 0.41 percent to trade at $52.03 a barrel as of 07:00 GMT.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) is set to release its weekly inventories for crude and refined products late in the afternoon, in anticipation of official figures from the US Energy Information Administration, which are due at 14:30 GMT tomorrow.
Market analysts are currently pointing at a 2.283 million barrels decrease in crude stockpiles, while distillates are seen falling 1.250 million barrels and 846,000 barrels for gasoline.
Expectations for an OPEC deal extension increased on Monday following a joint statement between energy ministers from Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Both countries seem interested in extending the initiative until March 2018, a nine-month duration that exceeds the current phase of one semester.
Back in November 2016, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed with other independent producers, led by Russia, to reduce 1.8 million barrels per day from global oil production in the first six months of the year.
The measure is meant to rebalance supply levels and prompt up crude prices. OPEC will take a final decision on the matter next May 25 when members gather in Vienna.

Fort Financial Services

Pro account

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 16:18 Labels: about us

Pro - a trading account designed for professional traders and is characterized by an interbank floating spread. The client has a direct access to the interbank liquidity through the MetaTrader 4 platform. A specific bridge connects client’s transactions with the liquidity provider. At the same time, slippage is almost excluded due to the direct connection between the company’s server and that of the provider. With this account type traders have unlimited opportunities to earn profit. Account currency is USD. A Pro account may be opened directly after the registration on the company’s website.

Fort Financial Services

Intro to range trading

1 comment : Posted by Anonymous at 14:45 Labels: how to

In case you haven’t noticed so far, world markets are currently trading flat. Uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration, increasing geopolitical tension in the Korean Peninsula and expectations for further monetary policy accommodation from world regulators later this year has been pressuring investors lately.
For reasons mentioned above and many other factors, equities, commodities and even currencies have been trading in narrow ranges for the past few days. If you are giving your first steps in trading and haven’t yet discovered the vast diversity of market scenarios, you’re probably wonder how to profit when things remain in place for extended periods of time.
That’s exactly why you should get acquainted with range trading, a useful strategy to profit when markets are moving lateral. While this strategy can be applied on a series of different market scenarios, it’s generally associated with times of data shortage and lack of direction.

Buy support, sell resistance
The idea behind range trading is not hard to understand. A range is limited by two bands, an upper band (resistance) and a lower band (support). Those levels are determined by technical indicators. In order to make a profit, you have to buy low, sell high or viceversa.
Once prices enter in a range, they may dance between these two levels for long time, allowing traders to open and close many positions until the channel is broken.
To improve visualization of resistance and support levels, we suggest drawing horizontal lines in your trading charts. By doing so, you’d know exactly where the price is standing inside the range.

Turn up the heat
When things go south or north, making an entry is a bit simpler. But if you see no direction on your chart, then uncertainty is likely to eat your brain. To avoid that, keep an eye on the most popular technical indicators (Stochastics and RSI) to find the right moment for entering a position. Momentum indicators will tell you when market is oversold or overbought, making it easier for you to buy or sell at the right time.

Stay away from risk
No need to tell that markets fluctuate at the speed of sound when unexpected events hit them. While some resistances seem unbreakable and some supports could be very hard to cross, the reality can change within minutes, leaving you exposed to big losses. Always set stop loss positions to prevent heart attacks.

Fort Financial Services

What’s next? – GOLD, OIL 15.05.17

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 10:21 Labels: what’s next

GOLD
Gold futures were higher in Asian hours on Monday as geopolitical tension in the Korean peninsula ramped up following a new ballistic missile test from North Korea.
Kim Jong-un’s communist regime launched a new missile on Sunday morning. The projectile flew for about 30 minutes before falling into East Sea waters.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery rose 0.30 percent to trade at $1231.40 a troy ounce as of 07:15 GMT.
Earlier today, China said industrial production grew 6.5 percent in April, below expectations for a 7.1 percent gain. Fixed-asset investment for the mentioned month rose 8.9 percent, falling short from an expected 9.1 percent build..
Last week, the yellow metal settled higher, with the US dollar extending losses across the board on fears that downbeat inflation data would undermine Fed’s plan to hike rates in June.
On Friday, the Labor Department said inflation year-over-year advanced by 2.2 percent in April from a previous month 2.4 percent. Core inflation dropped to 1.9 percent. In other news, retail sales for April grew 0.4 percent, below a forecasted increase of 0.6 percent.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, market participants are currently weighing in slightly more than a 70 percent chance of a rate movement next month.

OIL
Oil prices rose substantially in early morning trades on Monday after Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed the extension of OPEC-led production cuts until March 2018.
US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $48.82 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 2.05 percent from its prior close. The international Brent crude oil futures rose 1.87 percent to trade at $51.79 a barrel as of 07:15 GMT.
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih and his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak met in Beijing and hinted that the ongoing agreement is likely to be extended beyond June.
"The two ministers agreed to do whatever it takes to achieve the desired goal of stabilizing the market and reducing commercial oil inventories to their 5-year average level, as well as to underscore the determination of oil producers to ensure market stability," an official statement said.
In November 2016, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and independent producers led by Russia agreed to reduce their crude output levels by nearly 1.8 million barrels per day, which accounts for approximately 2 percent of global oil production.
The initial deal is due to expire on June and market participants have been speculating for a few months already on the possible renewal of the pact.
So far, OPEC reported satisfactory compliance among members. Despite increasing US shale oil production, crude benchmarks have been able to hold around the $50 mark.
Declarations from top oil ministers came in days before OPEC meets in Vienna to vote on the extension. Other nations, such as Kuwait, have already expressed support to the iniciative of reducing output levels for a longer period of time.
Meanwhile, US producers continued to increase the number of rigs in the country. In the week ended May 12, the total count moved up to 712 units, the highest point since beginning of 2015.

Fort Financial Services

Trading signals 11/5/17

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 15:38 Labels: trading signals

Strong US job data suggests two rate hikes this year, looks like the market has already priced this in. Euro moves to consolidation; Brent recovers back to $52.

USD/JPY
Weak inflation data in Japan may weaken JPY.

BoJ's head comments is a negative factor for the Japanese yen (Kuroda is confident in accelerating inflation);
The Bank of Japan intends to continue its supportive policy;
The divergence of the monetary policy of the BoJ and the Fed is increasing, which also puts pressure on the Japanese yen;
Return of risk appetite for emerging markets is also a negative short-term factor for the Japanese currency.

Technical analysis and recommendations: Long if USD/JPY pulls back from the nearest resistance of 114.40-114.80.
The pair faced strong resistance level at 114.40-114.80. A quick passing above this level is unlikely. We expect a technical rollback for profit taking. The first support is located at 113.60. The next support is located at 113.00. Cautious longs in case if the pair pulls back can be interesting.

EUR/USD
European political risks have decreased and that will support the euro in the medium term, attention shifts to the monetary policy of the European regulator.

Centrist Macron won the French presidential election from an ultra-right candidate which significantly reduced political uncertainty in Europe;
Draghi said he intends to adhere to the current stimulating monetary policy at least until the end of 2017. However, the inflation growth in Europe is a positive factor for the European currency;
The US dollar is gradually recovering, the dollar index is moving to the level of 100 points.

Technical analysis and recommendations: Longs at 1.0830 level with the target of 1.1015.
The pair is heading for consolidation around the levels of 1.0850-1.0900. Despite the neutral fundamental picture, we expect that the market will choose an upward breakout. The nearest significant support level is in the region of 1.0830. The nearest resistance is in the region of 1.0890.

Brent Oil
The latest data on US oil inventories came out positive (reserves decreased by 5.2 million barrels, gasoline also decreased) that together with the oversold market returned futures for Brent oil above $50 to the area of $50.70. Brent market continues to look bullish.

The monthly OPEC report is in the market's focus today.

Technical analysis and recommendations: Long with $52 aim and above.
The $51 level is the nearest resistance. However, it is unlikely that $51 will stop the market gain. The goal of the current upward momentum is $52.

Fort Financial Services
This trading analysis is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a strict recommendation for action or an offer for the purchase or sale of any currency, future or stock. Publishing the information we do not try or to attract any funds or deposits. We share our analytical view of current market situation and we don’t have any open position in instruments discussed and no plans to open any positions. Any person considering this research should carefully consider the risks associated with this and the level of trading experience.

3 tech stocks for conservative investors

3 comments : Posted by Anonymous at 12:09 Labels: stocks , trading tips

So you’re willing to make some extra cash this year, but you’re not totally sure about taking on big risks in exchange for returns. No worries, there are always alternatives to suit your needs. Considering political instability in the United States, Europe, Asia and many other regions, it might be wise to stay on solid ground rather than walk into the unknown. If you feel this way, take a look at blue chip stocks.

Intro to Blue Chip Stocks
A blue-chip stock belongs to well-established financially-healthy companies that have been around for many many years. It’s not something “innovative” that has seduced investors in the last 24 hours, making it a great investment alternative for those running away from uncertainty.
These kind of companies count on huge market capitalization (yes, we are talking of billions) that will make conservative investors feel more secure than ever.
While blue-chip stocks can be found in all three major US equity indexes, we are going to focus on those part of the Nasdaq, which represents tech companies mainly.

Nasdaq Top Blue Chip Stocks Right Now
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)
This “fruit” has a significant impact on consumers all around the world and its stocks are considered a blue chip for all possible reasons. Apple has around $250 billion in cash and investments and its market capitalization has recently reached a record-high of $800 billion, turning it into one of our favorites.
President Donald Trump has previously criticized Apple for holding most of its business and money abroad, especially pointing at China. However, if Trump’s tax reform is passed by Congress this year, the tech giant might consider flying back home part of its assets.

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)
Microsoft Corporation is another obvious choice when checking on blue-chip tech stocks. The most popular software company worldwide makes around $25 billion in profits, making it a great option for safe dividends. Last week, Microsoft presented Surface, a high-end laptop that serves as probe that the company is actually shifting to hardware.
In its latest earnings report, the company reported an EPS of 73 cents against 70 cents estimated by analysts, although revenue came in at $23.56 billion, down from an expected $23.62 billion.

Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL)
While we all call them Google, we are actually referring to stocks of its mother company, Alphabet. Less than two weeks ago, the company topped Wall Street earnings expectations, showing a $7.73 EPS, compared to a projected $7.39 per share. Revenue came in at $24.75 billion, also above an expected $24.22 billion.
According to a company statement, Alphabet has mainly benefited from a solid increase of YouTube ad sales, as well as better-than-expected revenues from Google Play, hardware devices and its cloud service Drive. GOOGL counts on a mega-cap of $642 billion, making it a reliable choice for low-risk investors.

Fort Financial Services

What’s next? – GOLD, OIL 11.05.17

No comments : Posted by Anonymous at 09:54 Labels: what’s next

GOLD
Gold futures rose in Asian trade on Thursday amid increasing political uncertainty in the United States following the ouster of FBI Director James Comey.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery rose 0.07 percent to trade at $1219.70 a troy ounce as of 05:05 GMT.
The yellow metal settled higher on Wednesday, with the Trump administration under heavy scrutiny due to the unexpected decision to fire Comey amid rising tensions in the Korean Peninsula and the Middle East.
According to the New York Times, Comey had asked the Justice Department for extra resources to proceed with the investigation of Russia’s potential interference with the presidential campaign.
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and President Donald Trump welcomed Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Washington. Leaders agreed that both superpowers should reactivate collaboration on different topics, leaving aside ideological differences.
Earlier this week, gold prices were supported by comments of the North Korean ambassador to the UK, who assured his country will proceed with nuclear tests in the near term.
Market participants are also pending on the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve, which is expected to hike its interest rate by 25 basis points.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch program, more than 80% of traders are pricing in a rate hike next month. Last week, the Federal Reserve kept rates steady but opted for an optimistic rhetoric that reinforce speculation over a gradual tightening of monetary policy.

OIL
Oil futures edged higher in Asian hours on Thursday, remaining in green territory as the US inventory data showed a much larger-than-expected reduction of crude stockpiles.
US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $47.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 0.55 percent from its prior close. The international Brent crude oil futures rose 0.50 percent to trade at $50.47 a barrel as of 05:05 GMT.
Oil benchmarks settled higher on Wednesday following the latest report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), which reported a 5.25 million-barrel drawdown in crude reserves for the week ended May 5, compared to expectations for a 1.79 million-barrel decrease.
Gasoline inventories notched down by 150,000 barrels against a projected drop of 538,000 barrels. Distillate products supplies came down by 1.6 million barrels.
These figures were aligned with a previous day report from the American Petroleum Institute, which also showed strong cuts on crude oil inventories.
The EIA moved its US oil output projection to an average of 9.3 million barrels per day for 2017 and its price estimate to $52.60 per barrel for the Brent and $50.68 for the WTI.
Meanwhile, traders kept an eye on the upcoming OPEC meeting on May 25, when it will be decided whether to extend to the production cuts deal until the end of the year.
Earlier this week, Saudi Arabia Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih said he was “confident the agreement will be extended into the second half of year and possibly beyond."

Fort Financial Services

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