Tuesday, 4 April 2017
Brent crude oil is under pressure after recent gain - the market consolidates just above the support level of $52.60. The recent news about the restoration of oil production in Libya last week play a negative role in the market. However, on the other hand this week, the focus will be on crude oil inventories data in the US. It is expected that the figures may show a decline that will support oil. Next week, the market expects updated reports from OPEC and the IEA, and most likely, we will hear verbal support for the market. Based on the facts, the market positive sentiment is more likely to be formed. We expect oil to remain in the range of $54.50- $52.40.
Trading recommendations: Longs at levels $52.50- $53.
Gold returned to the area of annual maximums of $1260, where most likely players will fix profits and roll back the price lower. Yellow metal strengthened on the weakness of the US currency. Historically, in April, the US dollar is always weaker. This factor will certainly support gold. Nevertheless, from a technical point of view, gold is expected to rollback. The level of support is located around $1245- $1250.
Trading recommendations: Longs at $1245- $1250.
The divergence in the monetary policy of the US and Japan will continue to influence: the Fed can again hike rates in June and September this year. This factor is able to reverse the pair and will have a medium-term and long-term impact. Despite the fact that the risks in the equity markets continue to rise, we believe that support in the 110 area will be withheld.
Trading recommendations: Longs at JPY110.
Last days weakness of the European currency is explained by lower probability of monetary policy tightening amid weaker inflation figures. (Inflation fell from 2% to 1.5%, which is below expectations of 1.8%). Nevertheless, technically, the pair achieved significant support in the area of Eur1.0645-Eur1.0660. Political uncertainty also puts pressure on the pair. Now our recommendation is to stay out of the market.
Trading recommendations: Out of the market.
Fort Financial Services
This trading analysis is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a strict recommendation for action or an offer for the purchase or sale of any currency, future or stock. Publishing the information we do not try or to attract any funds or deposits. We share our analytical view of current market situation and we don’t have any open position in instruments discussed and no plans to open any positions. Any person considering this research should carefully consider the risks associated with this and the level of trading experience.