Monday, 24 April 2017
Gold and euro: overnight vedettes
Haven’t you heard yet?! Centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron won the first round of the French presidential election with 23.75 percent of votes, according to the interior ministry.
But that percentage is simply not enough for Macron to feel relief. Far-right National Front candidate Marine Le Pen was pretty close with 21.53 percent.
Both candidates will now have to face on May 7 for a second round. Meanwhile, opinion polls are pointing at Macron as the winner, while French politicians get together against “extremism”.
As soon as results came out, defeated candidate François Fillon told his supporters that “there's no choice but to vote against the extreme right.” Other officials from François Hollande’s administration joined the pro-EU movement by calling voters to support Macron.
But enough of politics. How financial markets reacted on the news? Traders see Macron as the safe-choice for France and Le Pen as some sort of French Trump. No doubt that Macron taking the lead in this first round brought some light to the shady politics of our dearest Frenchies.
As uncertainty dropped, safe haven assets such as gold futures plunged to its lowest level in nearly two weeks. Spot bullion notched down by 0.7 percent to trade slightly above the $1275 mark, while futures contracts slipped more than 1 percent to around $1277 per troy ounce.
Improving risk-on sentiment is seen as a threat for gold prices, which tend to benefit in periods of high uncertainty and suspense. However, the presidential race is not over yet and not all cards have been played out, so there are lots of investors holding steady until next month.
Le Pen promised to hold a Brexit-like referendum in case she would become president this year, which could provoque great damage for the European Union. Anyway, remember that gold is not only affected by this factor, increasing geopolitical tensions in Asia and the Middle East, as well as chances that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in June.
The euro was also largely moved by the voting results, spiking to a five-month high versus the dollar, to trade around 1.0935 in early Asian trading. Nevertheless, the initial jump started to fade and the EURUSD headed to 1.0850 hours later.
So… Macron (long) or Le Pen (short), what’s your choice for May 7?
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