USD/JPY
The yen met strong resistance at the level of JPY111.30 and moved to consolidation.

• The US corporate reporting season start creates demand for stock assets; 
• President Trump's tax reform could not significantly support the US dollar;
• The US dollar index moves to consolidation - the dollar stopped weakening and forms a consolidation pattern.

Technical analysis and recommendations: Longs amid pullback from 111.30.
The former resistance is now the nearest support at 110.55. We expect that the level of 111.30 will not be passed immediately and most likely, the market will make few attempts with some technical pullbacks.

EUR/USD
The market consolidates at the levels of 1.0831-1.0915.

• The reduced political risks in Europe will support the European currency in the short term.
• The upward impulse met strong resistance and further growth seems limited.

Technical analysis and recommendations: Accurate longs from the level of 1.0830 - the zone of the nearest demand, and the first strongest level of resistance.

Brent Oil
Weakness of the oil market continues. Market dropped below the level of 52 dollars per barrel.

• The current decline may not be justified from a fundamental point of view;
• OPEC plans to extend the agreement on production cuts for the second half of the year is in the market's focus.

Technical analysis and recommendations: Longs at current levels seem justified.
In the region of the level of 51.10-51.30 is a long-term level of support. Longs from this level may be of interest for medium-term positions. We expect a rollback to $53 next week.

Fort Financial Services
This trading analysis is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a strict recommendation for action or an offer for the purchase or sale of any currency, future or stock. Publishing the information we do not try or to attract any funds or deposits. We share our analytical view of current market situation and we don’t have any open position in instruments discussed and no plans to open any positions. Any person considering this research should carefully consider the risks associated with this and the level of trading experience.

Monday
Europe: The week begins in Switzerland, with retail sales for March scheduled for release as of 07:15 GMT. The European Commission will present its latest economic forecasts at 09:00 GMT.
United States: Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is due to speak at 11:45 GMT, with investors hoping to receive further details on Trump’s tax reform. On the data front, PCE price index for March will be available at 12:30 GMT, together with personal spending data. As April is now officially on our back, Markit will release its well-known manufacturing PMI as of 13:45 GMT, while the Institute of Supply Management is expected to present its own index at 14:00 GMT.
Asia: By the end of the day (Western time), the Bank of Japan will publish minutes from its latest monetary policy meeting. The central bank left unchanged interest rates and stimulus programs.

Tuesday
Asia: Tuesday starts earlier than usual for those trading Asian hours, with Caixin manufacturing PMI for April expected to be out at 01:45 GMT. Analysts are forecasting a 0.2 reduction to 51.0.
Europe: German manufacturing PMI for April will be presented at 07:55 GMT, with expectations standing at 58.2. The same report in the euro zone will be available at 08:00 GMT and in the United Kingdom half an hour later. March reading on EU’s unemployment rate is due at 09:00 GMT and it’s expected to tick down from a previous 9.5 percent.

GOLD
Gold futures turned higher in Asian trading on Friday, following remarks from US President Donald Trump in regard to the increasing geopolitical tensions in the Korean peninsula.
The Republican leader said that he will terminate an ongoing free trade pact with South Korea, unless the Asian nation is willing to negotiate terms. Trump also said that South Korea should pay $1 billion for the THAAD anti missile system that has been recently installed over there.
The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) was deployed earlier this week as a way to protect South Korea and Japan from missile attacks.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery was up by 0.09 percent to trade at $1267.00 a troy ounce as of 07:00 GMT.
The yellow prices remained mostly flat on Thursday, as traders continued to feel optimistic about Trump’s tax reform, which boosted the US dollar despite downbeat economic reports.
The US Labor Department said initial jobless claims increased by 14,000 last week, leaving the total count at 257,000 for the week ended April 21.
In a parallel report, the National Association of Realtors said pending home sales index, notched down by 0.8 percent to 111.4.
Durable goods orders added 0.7 percent in March, falling short from an expected 1.2 percent build and down from a previous 2.3 percent increase in February.
Investors are shifting their focus to next week’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The US regulator is expected to hold things in place until further economic data supports a new hike.

OIL
Oil futures continued to rise in Asian hours on Friday, with investors focusing on President Donald Trump comments on the North Korean crisis and fresh supply data from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA).
US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $49.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 0.94 percent from its prior close. The international Brent crude oil futures rose 0.93 percent to trade at $52.30 a barrel as of 07:00 GMT.
Crude benchmarks settled in red territory on Thursday, as reports showed that Libya has increased its oil output. The Sharara and El Feel oilfields are now again operational following a series of strikes that blocked pipelines for several weeks.
Data from Libya comes in a day after the US Energy Information Administration reported bigger-than-expected decrease in crude inventories.
According to the latest document, crude stockpiles fell by 3.6 million barrels in the week ended April 21, against a 1.7 million-barrel drawdown seen. Gasoline stockpiles, on the contrary, rose by 3.4 million barrels, despite expectations for a decrease based on the summer driving season.
Investors are looking ahead of the next OPEC meeting in regard of a possible extension of the output cuts agreement. OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said the group is working to persuade other members on the extension.
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have already expressed their pro-deal position, but other key parts on the deal, like Russia for instance, haven’t yet decided whether it will join it or not.

Fort Financial Services

And here we go again… The European Central Bank is holding a new monetary policy meeting in the day and investors are trying to figure out where the regulator is actually heading as political tensions and uncertainty continue to weigh on global stocks.
Market participants have been speculating on a gradual reduction of the buying bonds program, which currently stands at 60 billion euros a month. The bank purchases governmental and private bonds to promote economic growth by injecting money into the economy.
While some economic indicators have recently suggested sustainable economic recovery in the European Union, many economists still criticize stimulus as it promotes unequal terms for nations within the bloc. For example, EU’s first economy Germany is facing negative returns on their savings while countries like Italy or Spain continue to borrow cash at nearly no costs.
“To prevent speculation of rate rises, we think the ECB will wait until Q4 before adjusting its forward guidance,” said the analysis team of HSBC.
Expectations for an ECB interest rate hike increased as Eurozone’s inflation has recently reached the 2 percent yearly goal set by the regulator. On this matter, ECB President Mario Draghi said that indicator will be monitored but it won’t trigger an automatic policy adjustment.
“We are not yet at a stage when inflation dynamics can be self-sustaining without monetary policy support. The recovery of inflation still depends on the very favourable financing conditions that firms and households enjoy, which in turn depends on the substantial degree of monetary policy accommodation we have in place today,” said Draghi earlier this month.
Also, April’s policy meeting comes at a difficult time in the political sphere. The first round of the French presidential elections have just ended few days ago, leaving centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron ahead on the race, but still dangerously close of his main opponent far-right candidate Marine Le Pen.
Recent polls showed basically no chances for the National Front leader to become the next president of France. Nevertheless, traders remain on a cautious-mode as extremism continues to be a threat for European markets, the euro and of course, the union itself.
For this reason and possibly until both candidates meet on May 7 for a second round, economists predict that ECB authorities will keep benchmark rates steady today, with short term rate at a record-low 0.00 percent and the facility rate at -0.40 percent.
The European regulator will make public its latest interest rate decision at 11:45 GMT, with analysts expecting no changes to the monetary configuration. The meeting will be followed by a press conference from ECB President Mario Draghi at 12:30 GMT.

GOLD
Gold futures edged higher in Asian hours on Thursday, as market players turned back into safe havens in reaction to increasing geopolitical tension in the Korean peninsula.
US military has sent warships and a submarine to the Korean peninsula in recent days, as well as a THAAD missile defence system, which intercepts and destroys short and medium-range ballistic missiles. The deployment of such equipment was not well-received by local citizens.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery was up by 0.30 percent to trade at $1268.00 a troy ounce as of 06:15 GMT.
Overnight, the yellow metal settled slightly lower on Wednesday as investors digested new details on the long-awaited Trump tax reform from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
According to Mnuchin, the government is intending to cut corporate tax from 35 percent to 15 percent and apply a one-time tax for companies willing to relocate back to the United States.
Upbeat remarks promoted a stronger greenback and weighed on the dollar-denominated gold, as it became more expensive for investors holding foreign currencies.
The precious metal has been facing strong pressure since centrist Emmanuel Macron won the first round of the French presidential elections last weekend. He and his far-right opponent Marine Le Pen will now face on May 7 for a decisive vote.

OIL
Oil benchmarks moved to the downside in Asian hours on Thursday despite official data showed a reduction on crude stockpiles last week.
US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $49.38 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 0.48 percent from its prior close. The international Brent crude oil futures dropped 0.35 percent to trade at $51.64 a barrel as of 06:40 GMT.
The US Energy Information Administration said crude inventories notched down by 3.6 million barrels in the week ended April 21, against expectations for a 1.7 million barrels drawdown.
According to the latest report, refinery crude increased by 347,000 barrels, while gasoline stockpiles added 3.4 million barrels, although analysts had predicted a one million/b drop.
Data wasn’t aligned with the previous report from the American Petroleum Institute, which showed a crude build of nearly 900,000 barrels and a 4.4 million-barrel jump in gasoline.
Players pointed out that whether the US reserves are moving up or down, the global market continues to be oversupplied, which increases concerns over the effectiveness of OPEC-led output reductions and its possible extension.
The oil cartel will gather on May 25 to define the future of that deal. While Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have already expressed its pro-deal approach, other nations do not seem so convinced.

Fort Financial Services

USD/JPY
Japanese yen weakened amid a decline in political uncertainty in Europe and easing geopolitical risks.

• The corporate reporting season in the US supports demand for equity assets;
• Expectations of Trump's tax reform strengthen the demand for equity and might support the US dollar;
• The technical upward correction of the US currency is possible in the short term.

Technical analysis and recommendations: Short-term longs.
The first serious resistance is at the level of 110.55. We expect profit taking and pullback from this level. Support is at levels of 109.70 (the upper limit of the gap). Careful longs after a pullback might be interesting.

EUR/USD
Lower political uncertainty in Europe may support EUR in the short term. However, upside may be limited. USD rebound may pressure EUR.
Technical analysis and recommendations: Careful longs at 1.0840-1.0850.
If it settles above 1.0830, the pair may develop upward impulse up to 1.1020.

Brent Oil
Weakness of the oil market continues. Brent futures dropped below the level of 52 dollars per barrel.
The current decline may not be justified from a fundamental point of view;
In the market focus there is data on oil inventories from API, as well as official US data on oil inventories from the US Department of Energy;
The meeting of OPEC representatives ended with the confirmation of continuing agreements to cut oil production, which is a good sign for market.
Technical analysis and recommendations: Longs at 51.30 seem to be justified.
There are massive long-term support level around 51.10-51.30. Longs started around this level may be of interest for medium-term positions.

Fort Financial Services
This trading analysis is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a strict recommendation for action or an offer for the purchase or sale of any currency, future or stock. Publishing the information we do not try or to attract any funds or deposits. We share our analytical view of current market situation and we don’t have any open position in instruments discussed and no plans to open any positions. Any person considering this research should carefully consider the risks associated with this and the level of trading experience.

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GOLD
Gold edged down in Asian hours on Tuesday, with market participants keeping an eye on the Korean peninsula for further developments in geopolitical tensions between the United States and North Korea and as risk-on sentiment continued to restore following the French election.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery was down 0.20 percent to trade at $1275.00 a troy ounce as of 06:20 GMT.
On Monday, bullion prices settled lower as traders started to move back into risky assets as pro-EU candidate Emmanuel Macron defeated far-right Marine Le Pen at the first round of the French presidential elections. A second round will take place on May 7.
The yellow metal was under pressure as recent polls indicated that Le Pen has barely no chances of becoming the next president. High officials from the EU have already expressed their support for the centrist candidate while saying that Le Pen was “dangerous” for the bloc.
However, losses were limited by a weaker US dollar in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Korean peninsula. The US dollar index, which gauges the greenback against other six rivals, was trading around 99.2 earlier this morning, still below the 100.0 mark.
During the weekend, Kim Jong-un’s government said North Korea is ready to attack a US aircraft carrier and other Japanese vessels in the western pacific.
In other news, the US government announced on Monday that sanctions will be carried on against 271 employees of the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center, which according to the Trump administration is responsible for developing chemical weapons.

OIL
Oil prices extended gains in Asia trading on Tuesday as market players awaited a new weekly report on crude and refined products inventories in the United States.
US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $49.35 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 0.24 percent from its prior settlement. The international Brent crude oil futures added 0.25 percent to trade at $51.73 a barrel as of 06:50 GMT.
The latest estimate from the American Petroleum Institute will be available this evening, with analysts expecting a decline of 1.3 million barrels for crude, a drop of 1.2 million barrels for heating oil and a 1.225 million barrels decrease in gasoline stockpiles.
Official figures will be released by the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Last week, the agency reported a drawdown of 1.034 million barrels in crude inventories.
Crude benchmarks settled in red territory on Monday as market participants still feel doubtful about a possible extension of OPEC-led efforts and its effects on rebalancing global supply.
Last week, Russian Energy minister Alexander Novak said that “there are no decisions yet and each country is currently studying this issue independently,”
Russia is the leading non-OPEC member taking part on the output reduction agreement. All signing members agreed to reduce a total of 1.8 million barrels per day for the first six months of the year. The deal expires in June and the decision on the extension is due on May 25.

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Haven’t you heard yet?! Centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron won the first round of the French presidential election with 23.75 percent of votes, according to the interior ministry.
But that percentage is simply not enough for Macron to feel relief. Far-right National Front candidate Marine Le Pen was pretty close with 21.53 percent.
Both candidates will now have to face on May 7 for a second round. Meanwhile, opinion polls are pointing at Macron as the winner, while French politicians get together against “extremism”.
As soon as results came out, defeated candidate François Fillon told his supporters that “there's no choice but to vote against the extreme right.” Other officials from François Hollande’s administration joined the pro-EU movement by calling voters to support Macron.
But enough of politics. How financial markets reacted on the news? Traders see Macron as the safe-choice for France and Le Pen as some sort of French Trump. No doubt that Macron taking the lead in this first round brought some light to the shady politics of our dearest Frenchies.
As uncertainty dropped, safe haven assets such as gold futures plunged to its lowest level in nearly two weeks. Spot bullion notched down by 0.7 percent to trade slightly above the $1275 mark, while futures contracts slipped more than 1 percent to around $1277 per troy ounce.
Improving risk-on sentiment is seen as a threat for gold prices, which tend to benefit in periods of high uncertainty and suspense. However, the presidential race is not over yet and not all cards have been played out, so there are lots of investors holding steady until next month.
Le Pen promised to hold a Brexit-like referendum in case she would become president this year, which could provoque great damage for the European Union. Anyway, remember that gold is not only affected by this factor, increasing geopolitical tensions in Asia and the Middle East, as well as chances that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in June.
The euro was also largely moved by the voting results, spiking to a five-month high versus the dollar, to trade around 1.0935 in early Asian trading. Nevertheless, the initial jump started to fade and the EURUSD headed to 1.0850 hours later.
So… Macron (long) or Le Pen (short), what’s your choice for May 7?

GOLD
Gold futures slipped in Asian hours on Monday as political risks over the French presidential election eased after centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen won their place at the second round on May 7. So far, polls have shown Macron as the ultimate winner.
According to the interior ministry, Macron has received 23.75% of votes, followed by Le Pen with 21.53%, Fillon taking 19.91% and Melenchon with 19.64%.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery was down 1.00 percent to trade at $1276.20 a troy ounce as of 05:40 GMT.
Ahead this week, market participants will be paying attention to monetary policy meetings from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan as well as some key economic reports, including Eurozone’s inflation figures and preliminary Q1 GDP in the UK and US.
On Friday, bullion prices settled in green territory as traders flew into safe haven assets before the Sunday election in France and increasing geopolitical tensions in Asia and the Middle East.
Traders were also focus on Washington and its plan to unveil a long-awaited tax reform “very, very soon”. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the new administration is currently working on it and assured that the tax reform won’t be compromised by the future of the AHCA.

OIL
Crude prices edged higher in Asian trading hours on Monday following a widely anticipated result in the French election. En Marche! Emmanuel Macron and National Front Marine Le Pen are now set to meet for a runoff on May 7. Attention has now shifted to the Korean peninsula, where tensions spiked as President Donald Trump talked with leaders from China and Japan.
US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $49.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 0.46 percent from its prior settlement. The international Brent crude oil futures added 0.54 percent to trade at $52.24 a barrel as of 05:40 GMT.
After a telephone conversation with President Trump, Japanese PM Shinzo Abe said that he appreciates US showing that all options are available when dealing with North Korea.
In a separate call, Trump and his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping also talked about Pyongyang’s missile tests. Xi insisted that China wants to scale down the situation.
Crude benchmarks settled lower on Friday after oilfield services provider Baker Hughes reported a fourteenth consecutive increase of drilling platforms in the United States.
According to the latest data, US shale producers sent the total count to 688 units, the highest level since 2015, fueling concerns that rising American output will derail OPEC-led efforts.
Investors are looking forward to an OPEC meeting on May 25, where representatives will decide whether to extend or not the output reduction agreement.
Ahead this week, attention will be directed to weekly reports on crude and refined products inventories in the United States and remarks from global leading crude oil producers.

Fort Financial Services

Monday
Europe: Germany comes first on a long list of events next week. Business expectations and lfo business climate index for April are due to be released as of 08:00 GMT, with consensus pointing a 106.0 and 112.3 respectively. In the United Kingdom, CBI industrial trends orders for April will be out as of 10:00 GMT.
United States: No relevant reports are scheduled on Monday. Attention will be directed to Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari’s speech at 15:30 GMT.

Tuesday
United States: The S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index, which gauges variations in the selling price of family homes in 20 different metropolitan zones, is set to be presented at 13:00 GMT. This index can be useful to measure inflation in the real estate market. The Conference Board will release its consumer confidence index for April at 14:00 GMT. In parallel, investors will count on new homes sales for March. After 20:00 GMT, the American Petroleum Institute will present its weekly report on crude oil stockpiles.

Wednesday
United States: The data front remains thin, with traders expected to focus almost entirely on commodities. Attention will be placed at the weekly inventories stats from the US Energy Information Administration, which are due to be released as of 14:30 GMT. According to the latest report of the Energy Department, crude stockpiles notched down 1.034 million barrels in the week ended April 12. Investors will pay close attention to the dynamics of gasoline reserves, which should start decreasing in light of the summer driving season.

Thursday
Asia: Investors will have to wake up early or rather don’t sleep at all in order to trade Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. The BOJ is expected to leave short-term benchmark rates steady at -0.10 percent. At 06:30 GMT monetary authorities will give a press conference. By the end of the day, Japan will come back in focus with fresh economic reports, including household spending (F: -0.8%), jobs/applications ratio (F: 1.43), consumer price index (F: 0.3%), industrial production (F: -0.8%) and retail sales (F: 1.5%).
Europe: The European Central Bank is also holding its monetary policy meeting in the day, although there are no changes expected regarding its current policy settings and bond buying program. ECB’s interest rate decision will be announced as of 11:45 GMT and the press conference is set for 12:30 GMT. Deposit facility rate currently stands at -0.40 percent, while the short term interest rate stands at 0.00 percent. Additionally, Germany will release its consumer price index for April, which is due to edged down in 0.1 percent.
United States: Investors will be looking at durable goods orders and goods trade balance for March at 12:30 GMT. Pending home sales will also be released as of 14:00 GMT.

Friday
Europe: Germany’s retail sales for March are set to be presented at 06:00 GMT, with expectations for a 0.3 percent reduction. In the United Kingdom, a preliminary reading on the first-quarter gross domestic product will be out at 08:30 GMT, with analysts forecasting a quarterly expansion of 0.4 percent and a year-over-year growth rate of 2.2 percent. April’s consumer price index from the Eurozone is scheduled at 12:30 GMT, with a 1.7 percent eyed.
United States: The week will end with a first look at the Q1 gross domestic product at 12:30 GMT, together with the employment cost index. Michigan consumer expectations and sentiment for April are due as of 14:00 GMT. Baker Hughes, as usual, to be presented at 17:00 GMT.

GOLD
Gold futures remained in red territory in Asian trade on Friday despite a suspected terrorist attack increased speculation over the upcoming French presidential election this weekend.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery was down 0.26 percent to trade at $1280.40 a troy ounce as of 07:15 GMT.
Bullion prices settled slightly higher on Thursday as investors flew into safe-haven assets ahead of the presidential elections and as downbeat economic data weighed on sentiment.
According to the US Labor Department, initial jobless claims rose by 10,000 in the week ended April 15, leaving the total count at 244,000, above analysts’ forecast.
Other economic news included the Philly Fed manufacturing index, which came in at 22.0 against expectations for 25.0 from a previous reading of 32.8 in March.
Trading activity is expected to remain low as market participants adopt a wait-and-see positioning ahead of the first round of the elections in France.
So far, far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon are both seen as threats for the future of the European Union, posing anti-community measures such as leaving the bloc, cutting immigration or establishing an independent currency.
A survey conducted by Elabe before yesterday’s shooting in Paris showed centrist Emmanuel Macron on top and Marine Le Pen falling behind him. However, the survey doesn’t represent the current intention as a terrorist attack usually promotes conservative views among voters.

OIL
Oil prices edged higher in early trading hours on Friday as market players prepared for Baker Hughes oil rig count later in the day, while keeping an eye on the French presidential elections and a meeting of OPEC representatives to discuss the future of crude oil production.
US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $50.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 0.12 percent from its prior settlement. The international Brent crude oil futures soared 0.09 percent to trade at $53.04 a barrel as of 07:15 GMT.
On Thursday, fears that a growing US oil production will derail OPEC-led efforts to rebalance global supply levels weighed on market sentiment and pushed down benchmarks.
Quotes settled lower despite positive remarks from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait regarding a possible extension of the output cuts agreement.
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih reassured that “there is consensus building” on the matter, but recognized that there is still work to be done to get full support from OPEC members.
OPEC leaders will gather in Vienna on May 25 to take a final decision on whether extend or not the output cuts for another six months starting from June.
Earlier this week, the US Energy Information Administration reported a crude stockpiles reduction of 1.034 million barrels for the week ended April 12, less than initially forecasted. Gasoline stockpiles took players by surprise rising 1.542 million barrels, although expectation pointed at a 1.938 million barrels drawdown in light of the summer driving season.
Oilfield services Baker Hughes will release its weekly rig count for the United States at 17:00 GMT. Last week’s report showed that US shale producers added eleven platforms, sending the total count to a record high of 683 units.

Fort Financial Services

USD/JPY
The situation remains the same - geopolitical risks determine the demand for safe-haven assets. The pair is oversold and our view didn’t change much, we are waiting for a technical pullback from the level of 108.00-108.50.

• The start of the corporate reporting season in the US was not as positive as it was expected. Equity markets in the US remain rather under pressure.
• Current weakness of the US currency after US President's political statements is a short-term positive Japanese yen factor.

Technical analysis and recommendations: The market is oversold, longs at current levels may be interesting.
The level 108.70-108.50 now acts as the nearest support (the 200th moving average will support the the price). Despite attempts to push the market lower, we observe large-scale longs around 108.50 and below.

EUR/USD
The European currency gained amid USD weakness.

• Political risks continue to shape the agenda in Europe. The first round of elections in France that will take place this weekend is in the focus of investors.

Technical analysis and recommendations: Despite local growth, political risks are too high. Out of the market.
The pair found support in the area of ​​level 1.0708. The first resistance is in the region of 1.0770, the main resistance is above level 1.0830-1.0835.

Brent Oil
An unexpected drop below $54.60 led to the activation of stop orders and the market decline to the area of ​​$52.50. The oil decline occurred due to US equity markets sale-off in view of global risk aversion after disappointing corporate reporting data.

• Official data on oil reserves showed a decrease of 1 million barrels, distillate stocks - by 1.9 million barrels, gasoline stocks increased by 1.5 million barrels.
• Weakness of the American currency is a positive factor for the oil market.
• The meeting of OPEC representatives this weekend and possible verbal intervention will support the oil market.

Technical analysis and recommendations: Middle-term longs at current levels appear to be justified.
In the current conditions, the oil market will try to keep the level of 53 dollars per barrel and recover to the level of $54 dollars per barrel.

Fort Financial Services
This trading analysis is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a strict recommendation for action or an offer for the purchase or sale of any currency, future or stock. Publishing the information we do not try or to attract any funds or deposits. We share our analytical view of current market situation and we don’t have any open position in instruments discussed and no plans to open any positions. Any person considering this research should carefully consider the risks associated with this and the level of trading experience.

US President Donald Trump has been working in Washington for quite some time now, however, there are still no clear signs of what his plans for the economy really are and when or how he intends to accomplish them. In other words, we are facing strong uncertainty, again.
So far, we know that Mr. Trump wants three basic things: higher fiscal spending, lower taxes and deregulation on several sectors. But from all that, there were no serious achievements since he moved to the White House in January. Instead, he seems more worried about replacing Obamacare with his own American Health Care Act (AHCA), as well as showing off US military power to Syria’s Bashar al-Assad and North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un.
International relations and national defense are serious matters, nobody is saying the opposite. But US equity markets have been on a rally since the November election in 2016 based on his economic promises and well… the clock is ticking faster and faster before participants lose hope, sending stocks into an ugly downward correction.
Despite Trump’s constant reassurance that he will in fact unleash the potential of the American economy, bringing back capital and jobs from those who stole them (AKA Mexico and China?), investors are just not buying it anymore.
After a completely unexpected shift in international relations, with the sending of US veals to the Korean peninsula or the firing of “the mother of all bombs” in Afghanistan or the destruction of a Syrian airbase, the new administration has made clear that priorities have now changed.
And we are facing two scenarios at this time. A rebound of stock markets or a plunge that could gain momentum and become more of a threat than a regular correction.

Rebound
Even with all internal and external scandals that currently surround Trump, market players are sticking to their bullish positions. And that means a lot. It means “we still trust you” or... “we are expecting a rebound soon”. Want to take this side? Your call.

Drawdown
Another side of the story is the drawdown scenario. If geopolitical tensions scalate further or Trump continues to avoid economic promises for too long, disappointment will weigh heavily on market sentiment and a strong downward correction could be on its way.

Hot Topics To Keep In Mind

• Health Care Reform - Small chances to be accomplished. Trump has to find a way to negotiate with its own GOP leadership and come together on the same side. Otherwise, no healthcare or any other reform will ever pass Congress.
• Tax Reform - Uncertainty, better to wait until August. However, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said it might be delayed due to the healthcare reform.
• Deregulation measures - Not too difficult to move forward with this point. It’s likely Trump will work on this issue in the near term.

GOLD
Gold futures edged lower in Asian hours on Thursday, although uncertainty ahead of the French presidential elections and Britain’s parliamentary vote limited losses.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery was down 0.17 percent to trade at $1281.20 a troy ounce as of 06:55 GMT.
The yellow metal settled lower on Wednesday as the US dollar rebounded, putting demand for safe havens under pressure, regardless of the political crisis between the US and North Korea.
Bullion moved away from five-month peaks after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the new administration is expecting no advancement on the tax reform by August. Mnuchin reassured that while the reform is still planned, the government prioritizes the healthcare bill.
Kim Jong-Un’s communist regime announced that it would continue with missile tests on weekly, monthly and yearly basis, increasing tensions in the Korean peninsula.
Yesterday, the British parliament gave green light to PM Theresa May to call an early election. The leader is looking for wider political support ahead of Brexit negotiations.
Fed funds tracked by CME Group’s FedWatch program are currently pricing in around 40 percent chances of a June interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, down from almost 60 percent last week.
The precious metal is sensitive to interest rates moves, as they lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, while making it less competitive for investors.

OIL
Oil prices remained in green territory Thursday early trading as disappointing stockpiles hit hard benchmarks overnight, pushing investors to reopen long positions.
US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $51.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 0.59 percent from its prior settlement. The international Brent crude oil futures soared 0.68 percent to trade at $53.29 a barrel as of 06:55 GMT.
Crude benchmarks settled almost 4 percent lower on Wednesday after the US Energy Information Administration reported a smaller-than-expected decline in reserves.
According to the latest report, crude inventories dropped by 1.034 million barrels in the week ended April 12, against expectations for a 1.470 million reduction.
Bearish data increased speculation that rising US shale production could derail OPEC-led efforts to rebalance supply levels and prompt up crude prices.
Gasoline stockpiles increased by 1.542 million barrels, while analysts had pointed at a 1.938 million barrels drawdown. Distillate inventories slipped by 1.955 million barrels against an estimated 0.988 million barrels decline.
Data took market participants by surprise, as April tends to be associated with the beginning of the summer driving season, which usually translates into largest oil demand.
Ahead this week, investors will keep an eye on Friday’s OPEC meeting, with focus on a possible extension of the output cut agreement, and Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count.

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USD/JPY
The pair is still under the same influential factors - geopolitical tensions determine the demand for safe-haven assets. However, if geopolitical risks are weakened, we can expect a massive Japanese yen decline as the pair is oversold.

• The positive start of the corporate reporting season in the US and the return of demand for equity assets can ease the pressure in the pair.
• Weakness of the US currency amid US President's political statements is a short-term speculative factor in favor of the Japanese yen.
• Expectations of FED hawkish policy may not be justified in the absence of signals conforming the accelerating economy and stable inflation in the US. 

Technical analysis and recommendations: The market is oversold, but longs look risky in the current geopolitical background. Out of the market.
The level 108.70-108.50 now acts as the nearest support (the 200th moving average will support the price). Despite attempts to push the market lower, we observe large-scale longs from 108.50 and below.

EUR/USD
The European currency gained amid the US dollar weakness background.

• The chances for a hawk policy from the Fed are declining, President Trump said that the dollar "is becoming too strong." The dollar index sank to a psychological level of 100 points.
• Political risks continue to determine the agenda in Europe. In the focus , the first round of elections in France already on this weekend.

Technical analysis and recommendations: The pair is consolidating at the levels of 1.0650-1.0620. Fixing above 1.0680 will determine the return of positive impulse. Trading is held in the region of the 50th and 100th moving average at the balance level. Stay out of the market.

Brent Oil
Technical retracement from the levels of $56.50. The level of $56.50 still appears as a strong resistance.

• The focus is on inventories data from API and the US Department of Energy.
• American currency weakness is a positive factor for the oil market.

Technical analysis and recommendations: The nearest support is located in the region of the $55 level. This is a kind of the balance level of the median channel 54.40-56.60. Careful mid-term longs at $55 and lower may be reasonable.

Fort Financial Services
This trading analysis is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a strict recommendation for action or an offer for the purchase or sale of any currency, future or stock. Publishing the information we do not try or to attract any funds or deposits. We share our analytical view of current market situation and we don’t have any open position in instruments discussed and no plans to open any positions. Any person considering this research should carefully consider the risks associated with this and the level of trading experience.

Feeling like there are still a lot of things out there that might help you enlarge your profits? Well… You are right. But no worries, it’s never too late to make a change and start being more productive and profit-focused. Here, a list of 5 tips to quickly turn your charts green:

Choose a top-tier broker
If you want to profit, your broker should have your back. Stop trading with those untrusty brokers and open an account with top-tier institutions that will provide you with a wide range of trading conditions to make you more profitable from every angle. Heard of Fort Financial Services? ;)

Educate yourself
Education is key for success. And by education I don’t mean you have to spend 5 years sitting in a classroom. Come on… it’s the twenty one century buddy! Just turn on your laptop and find verified trading courses online that will give you practical, useful basic understanding of how financial markets work and some of the most popular strategies. Then, it’s all practice.

Get meaningful support
Believe it or not, having someone you can talk about your day is incredibly important. That can be a trader, a friend or your couple. But the fact is that you should find someone to share your emotions and release your trading-related tension. If this person has trading knowledge, jackpot! Because not only he or she will be able to listen to you, but also help you improve your trading from an emotional or technical perspective.

Practice, practice and practice
Remember about that old demo account of yours? Yes, that one. Well… It seems you’ll need it from now on. Moving to a real account doesn’t mean you should deactivate your demo version. Risk-free environments are great for testing new strategies and practicing different trades. This profession is all about learning on everyday basis.
A strategy may seem simple on the surface, but even a simple strategy is hard to implement in live market conditions. Every day, every trend, every pullback is slightly different; nothing looks exactly the same as it did in the textbook examples. To get proficient at implementing a method, practice it, a lot. Trade it in a demo account until you consistently see profit from it.

GOLD
Gold futures moved lower in Asian hours on Tuesday as investors turned their attention to possible comments by US Vice President Mike Pence on the North Korean conflict. The leader is expected to give a speech in Tokyo later in the day, as he moves forward with his Asia tour.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery was down 0.48 percent to trade at $1285.70 a troy ounce as of 06:30 GMT.
The yellow metal settled in green territory on Monday, with geopolitical tensions still fueling speculation on higher prices. Last week, gold posted its best week since June, clearly supported by political uncertainty as North Korea conducted a failed missile test on Sunday.
Yesterday, Pence said an “era of strategic patience” with Kim Jong-Un’s regime was over and that the United States is ready to engage in response to further provocations.
In economic news, the Empire State manufacturing index decreased to 5.2 April, falling short from expectations of 15 points reading.
A rebound of the US dollar weighed on the precious metal, pulling it back from a 5-month peak last session. Bullion is a dollar-denominated commodity, which is very much dependent on the greenback’s dynamics as it increases its appeal in foreign markets.
Today, investors will keep an eye on fresh economic reports, such as building permits, housing starts and industrial production.

OIL
Oil prices eased in Asian trade on Tuesday, with market players focusing on remarks by US Vice President Mike Pence in Tokyo regarding the ongoing tension with North Korea and in anticipation of an industry report on crude stockpiles.
US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $52.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 0.11 percent from its prior settlement. The international Brent crude oil futures fell 0.11 percent to trade at $55.30 a barrel as of 06:30 GMT.
On Monday, Pence visited South Korea on Monday, where he said that an "era of strategic patience" with North Korea was over, fueling speculation for further escalation of this conflict.
The American Petroleum Institute is expected to release its weekly report on crude and refined product stockpiles late afternoon on Tuesday. Analysts forecasted a 1.5 million barrels decline in crude, a 0.96 million barrels drop in distillates and a 2.0 million barrels drawdown in gasoline.
Official data from the US Energy Information Administration will be available tomorrow. Last week, the agency said crude inventories came down by 2.166 million barrels.
Crude benchmarks settled higher on Monday, with investors keeping an eye on OPEC-led output cuts and the possibility of extending them for another six months this year.
OPEC representatives will gather this weekend to discuss this topic, although the final decision on the matter will be taken on May 25, according to internal sources.
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Monday that it was too soon to make comments on whether the multi country agreement will be extended.
Last year, OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreed to cut 1.8 million barrels from global oil supply in order to prompt up prices and rebalance supply levels.

Fort Financial Services

Let’s be honest, we are living in a dangerous world. Terrorist attacks, far-right campaigns, bailouts and yes… nuclear wars too. And not only you should protect your family and yourself from those events, but also your investments.
Last week, gold prices settled higher on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, marking its best week since June as geopolitical tensions between the US and North Korea remained at a record high over nuclear missile threats.
That’s right. World markets are affected by all kinds of things but we can divide those in two groups: bullish (positive) or bearish (negative) events for the economy.
Bullish: When US President Trump promised a series of economic measures that will promote economic growth, equity indexes skyrocketed on optimism.
Bearish: When the Britons voted to leave the European Union last year, not only the pound and stocks came down, big gains for gold futures followed.
Market participants (and that includes you) use safe haven assets to protect their capital from uncertainty and dangerous situations that might turn markets upside down. A safe haven asset usually maintains its value in times of market stress.

Is gold the only safe haven asset?
Gold is one of the most popular safe haven investments nowadays, although it’s not the only alternative for investors. Treasury bills or even some currencies, such as the yen or the euro, are also inside this category.

A trading example, please...?
Take a look at the French presidential elections for instance. Ultra conservative Marine Le Pen has serious chances of winning, which is seen as a huge political risk. In light of this event, market players have already started to buy gold. In case she loses, you would probably see a downward correction.

Will gold always be a safe haven asset?
Not necessarily. As safe haven assets gain popularity, a larger number for buyers and sellers weigh on its price, gradually making it less stable than needed. Volatility is the reason why safe havens are not expected to hold that status forever.

Fort Financial Services 

GOLD
Gold prices edged higher in Asian trade on Monday as increasing tensions in the Korean peninsula and the Middle East continued to push investors into safe havens.
The metal was also supported by China’s upbeat GDP and Industrial Production reports. According to the government, the economy expanded in 1.3 percent in the first quarter of the year, below expectations for a 1.6 percent build but a tick higher from the expected 6.8 percent growth in annual terms.
Industrial production rose by 7.6 percent in March, while analysts had forecasted a steady 6.3 percent growth.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery was up 0.35 percent to trade at $1293.00 a troy ounce as of 04:15 GMT.
Gold prices settled higher last week as the United States dropped the “mother of all bombs” in Afghanistan, rising uncertainty over president Donald Trump's next military moves.
Initial jobless claims reduced by 1,000 to 234,000 for the week ended April 8, said the US Labor Department on Thursday. Data also included the producer price index, which came down a tick.
The University of Michigan released its consumer sentiment index for April, which moved higher to 98.0, above expectations for a decline to 96.5 points.
The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, traded at 100.31 as of 04:15 GMT, down 0.16 from its prior close.
The yellow metal is denominated in US dollars. A stronger greenbacks makes gold less appealing for investors holding foreign currencies.

OIL
Oil prices showed little losses on Monday morning as investors digested downbeat data from Baker Hughes oil rig count and with geopolitical concerns still present on the agenda.

Monday
Asia: Traders will have to wake up early to catch up with China’s latest economic reports. Fixed asset investment for February will be available as of 02:00 GMT, although traders will rather focus on first quarter GDP and industrial production figures. The Chinese economy is expected to keep a 6.8 percent growth rate year-over-year and tick down quarter-on-quarter to 1.6 percent.
Europe: Markets will remain closed on Easter Monday
United States: New York Empire State Manufacturing Index for April will be released at 12:30 GMT, with expectations standing at 15.00 from a previous 16.40.

Tuesday
United States: Traders await building permits and housing starts for March as of 12:30 GMT, with analysts currently forecasting a 1.245 million units and 1.264 million units build respectively. The latest industrial production report will be out at 13:15 GMT. Markets are seeing an increase of 0.5 percent from a prior month 0.1 percent. Late in the afternoon, the American Petroleum Institute will present its weekly report on crude inventories.

Wednesday
Asia: Japan shows up with its adjusted trade balance as of 23:50 GMT. Economists had anticipated a reduction to 576 billions Exports are expected to rise by 6.7 percent in March.
Europe: Midweek begins with key economic indicators from the Eurozone. Consumer price index for April will be available at 09:00 GMT. Analysts forecasted a 1.5 percent build year-over-year and 0.8 percent on monthly basis. Trade balance for February will be released at the same time.
United States: Traders will be paying close attention to fresh figures on crude and refined products stockpiles from the US Energy Information Administration. Data will come out at 14:30 GMT. The latest report showed an unexpected drop of 2.166 million barrels against expectations for an 87,000 barrels build. The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on economic conditions around the country at 18:00 GMT.

Thursday
Europe: German Price Producer Index for March will be published at 06:00 GMT, with traders looking at 0.1 percent increase.
United States: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for April is due to be released as of 12:30 GMT. Economists forecasted a move to 26.9 points from a previous reading of 32.8.

Friday
Europe: Possibly the strongest day of the week for economic data. German Manufacturing and Services PMIs for April will be released by Markit as of 07:30 GMT. Economists are placing their bets at 58.0 and 55.5 points respectively. Same reports from the Eurozone will be available just half an hour later. In the United Kingdom, retail sales for March will be in focus at 08:30 GMT, with the year-over-year reading expected to add 3.6 percent and fall 0.2 percent on monthly basis.
United States: Markit will also present its manufacturing and services PMIs for April, with expectations standing at 53.5 and 53.0 respectively. Also in the day, existing home sales for March are due at 14:00 GMT and they are set to increase by 2.0 percent to 5.55 million units.

USD/JPY
The pair broke down through the strategic 110 level on the escalation of geopolitical risks.
1) The chances for a more hawkish FED policy are declining, as President Trump told The Wall Street Journal that the dollar "is becoming too strong." The dollar index sank to a psychological level of 100 points.
2) We hope that the beginning of US corporate reporting season will bring back some positivity to the stock markets and thereby weaken the pressure in the pair.
Technical analysis and recommendations: The market is oversold but longs look too dangerous in the current geopolitical situation. Out of the market.
The level of 108.70-108.50 now stands as the nearest support (the 200th moving average will support the price)

EUR/USD
The euro may come under pressure again, as the ECB will continue it's stimulating policy. The political risks of the elections decreased but did not disappear.
1) The chances for a more hawkish FED policy are declining, as President Trump told The Wall Street Journal that the dollar "is becoming too strong." The dollar index sank to a psychological level of 100 points.
2) The ECB will continue its supportive monetary policy, since Draghi considers inflation to be low.
3) Political risks continue to determine the agenda in Europe. Elections in France are the medium-term focus of investors.
Technical analysis and recommendations: Longs on pullback might be considered at levels of 1.0640 and below 1.0615.
Level 1.0580 has proved its strength. At the same time, 1.0680 is now acting as a resistance. We expect a rollback down from 1.0680 which can be a good chance to go long.

Brent Oil
Oil slightly adjusted after the recent days growth but  still remains around $56. At the moment, the level of 56.50 appears to be a strong resistance.
1) Data from the US Department of Energy showed a decline in all items, except for an increase in oil production for the week by 0.3% - up to 9 million barrels per day.
2) China reported an increase in the rate of oil imports in March by 19% y/y.
Technical analysis and recommendations: Long positions in rollbacks.
The picture on the oil market is rather positive. However, further oil gains seem to be complicated from the technical point of view.

Fort Financial Services
This trading analysis is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a strict recommendation for action or an offer for the purchase or sale of any currency, future or stock. Publishing the information we do not try or to attract any funds or deposits. We share our analytical view of current market situation and we don’t have any open position in instruments discussed and no plans to open any positions. Any person considering this research should carefully consider the risks associated with this and the level of trading experience.

Interest rates are one of the hot topics that investors all around the world should monitor in order to improve their trading strategies by adjusting to monetary policy changes.
May be the most popular interest rate news come from the United States, although the Eurozone, Japan and Great Britain also play an important role in financial markets.
In case you are just learning and interest rates are still not a very familiar term on your vocabulary, we have put together five basic questions to help you.

What are interest rates?
You can think of an interest rate as the cost of borrowing money, usually expressed as a percentage. When we talk about Federal Reserve rates, we are referring to federal funds rates or in other words, the percentage paid by a depositary institution to borrow money overnight. While these rates are only used by a selected number of top tier institutions, they have a very relevant effect on the economy as financial conditions depend on them.

Who sets interest rates?
In the United States, fed funds rates are decided by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which consist of 7 governors and 12 presidents of regional Federal Reserve Banks. The Federal Reserve and other central banks work together with governments in other to support economic growth and avoid financial crisis.

How to predict an interest rate move?
While there is no secret formula, it’s neither complete magic. In order to anticipate an interest rate you should keep an eye on some key issues, such as remarks of FOMC officials (in case of the United States) or better even speeches from central bank leaders. You also have to understand that the tone is just a tone, and what really matters here are numbers. So, you better make a list of which indicators your local regulator uses as a reference. As for the Federal Reserve, inflation and labor market conditions are top priorities. That’s why nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, consumer price index or producer price index attract a lot of attention on a worldwide scale.

How interest rates affect the economy?
Higher rates increase the cost of borrowing money from large companies to individuals, hitting high-yielding investments such as stocks. In the long run, higher rates can turn into a bad thing for the economy, forcing it to cool down.
Lower rates, on the contrary, promote economic growth as companies get access to cheaper credit as well as consumers, which ultimately bring more cash to the party. More investment and spending help build a more solid gross domestic product. But of course, there is a downside to it, overheating as inflation tends to spike.

GOLD
Gold futures edged higher in Asian hours on Thursday over increasing geopolitical concerns and remarks of US President Donald Trump on the greenback.

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Wall Street index futures were set for a lower open as market participants looked ahead of a meeting between top diplomats from the US and Russia.
US Secretary Rex Tillerson and his Russian counterpart Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will meet in Moscow this afternoon. The meeting includes a long list of topics to be discussed, although the Syrian crisis is expected to be the main priority.
Geopolitical tensions spiked in the Middle East after President Donald Trump ordered the US military to fire dozens of missiles to a Syrian airbase in response to Bashar al-Assad’s chemical attack in the Idlib province last week. 

A question that most people willing to invest have come across sometime. The answer really depends on a large amount of factors, but here at FortFS we have made up a list of five basic questions that you ask yourself to understand what investment best serves your needs.

Are you an active or passive trader?
An active trader will be ready to trade and/or monitor its portfolio development on daily or weekly basis, while a passive trader will rather check on his money less often, sometimes leaving all the heavy-lifting to a portfolio manager or using copy-trading services.
As forex is more volatile than equity markets, active traders will likely find it more interesting to work on day trading strategies. On the contrary, stocks tend to be more stable than currencies, with less fluctuations and certainly less stress, they are the way to go for those investors that cannot or don't want to spend lots of time behind the screen.

Are you looking for long-term or short-term profitability?
Nowadays, you can find thousands of websites advertising quick and easy profits, but is that all true? Profitable short-term investments are highly risky and that's simply not for everyone. But that's ok, equity markets are a good alternative for those who are working with a long horizon. If you are planning to get returns on a short period of time, then Forex seems like a better alternative, because of its high liquidity and 24/5 availability to trade.

How do you feel about risk tolerance?
Think of it as cheating at your math exam with the teacher only a meter from you. Right, remember that feeling on your stomach? Well… a similar feeling you will face unless you are a nerves-resistant trader. But you don't have to work that with your psychologist, just have to find your right level of risk tolerance. Remember that you should invest only money that you can lose and will not affect your current lifestyle. Basic rule of all. Volatility offered by Forex market is a great thing, but also a dangerous one. Also, keep in mind that forex trading usually involves leveraged positions, which can be even riskier for your capital.

Do you have trading education of any kind?
Don't be fooled by bla-bla brokers, educating yourself it's an essential part of succeeding in financial markets. And that's why FortFS encourages all clients to prepare themselves before moving on with a real account. Basic financial education can be found easily in the web, don't need to spare thousands in formal education. Trading stocks makes it a bit easier, as you can rely on a portfolio manager that will take care of your entire strategy, while you just worry about risk and profits.

What’s your current trading capital?
Another key point that should help you decide whether stocks or forex are best for you. Capital. In other words, how much money are you willing to invest? Capital requirements for forex trading are really low (really, really low), although you should think at least 500 USD to start having some fun. If you are considering stocks, then you would need a bit more cash to make things interesting, especially as no leverage is involved.

GOLD
Gold futures held gains in Asian hours on Wednesday as market participants awaited a meeting between US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov later in the day, while also keeping an eye on increasing tensions with North Korea.
Traders continued to bet on long positions after President Donald Trump said the US is ready to “solve the problem”, referring to the repeated missile and nuclear tests from Pyongyang. Trump also said that it could use China’s help, but that it can easily go all alone on the mission.
The precious metal benefits from contexts of high uncertainty, as players seek for protection against unexpected geopolitical changes that weigh financial markets.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery was up by 0.24 at $1277.30 a troy ounce as of 05:50 GMT.
Investors are also trying to understand the Federal Reserve intentions regarding the future of monetary policy. On Monday, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said the regulator will continue to increase its short-term benchmark rate gradually if economic data supported such decision.
Investors are currently pricing in a 59 percent chance of a rate hike in June, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Political affairs are currently weighing strongly on market sentiment. Bullion prices were also backed by a recent poll in Francia showing that far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen still has chances to win in the second round. First vote is programmed for April 23.

OIL
Oil prices moved higher in early trading on Wednesday on optimism over OPEC output cuts extension and as API data reported an unexpected drawdown in US crude stockpiles.
US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $53.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 0.24 percent from its prior settlement. The international Brent crude oil futures grew 0.30 percent to trade at $56.40 a barrel as of 05:50 GMT.
The American Petroleum Institute said crude reserves came down by 1.3 million barrels in the week ended April 7, while analysts expected a 316,000 barrels increase.
Gasoline and distillates declined by 3.7 million barrels and 1.6 million barrels respectively, with both categories coming above forecasts.
The US Energy Information Administration will release its official weekly inventories on crude and refined products as of 14:30 GMT, with analysts expecting to see a 87,000 barrels build.
Crude prices settled higher on Tuesday as reports showed Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, was lobbying members of the oil cartel to extend production cuts for another semester.
According to OPEC officials, the final decision will be taken on May, when the oil group and other independent producers gather to evaluate performance of the first agreement.
OPEC and non-OPEC countries agreed to cut 1.8 million barrels per day from global production in the first six months of 2017 in order to boost prices and rebalance crude supply. So far, Russia has not given any signals of whether it intends to extend its commitment.

Fort Financial Services