Friday, 24 March 2017
Weekly Outlook: Mar 27 - Mar 31
Good guess! Monday brings no excitement (as usual). The European session will count however on German Business Expectations, Current Assessment and lfo Business Climate Index for March are scheduled at 08:00 GMT. Traders will keep their eyes on these figures as Europe’s first economy has a huge impact on ECB decisions. Lately, the regulator has been on the spotlight concerning its current monetary policy. While inflation has recently reached the 2 percent target, ECB President Draghi seems reluctant to cut monetary stimulus. Talking about central banks… San Francisco Fed President Robert Kaplan is due to speak at 22:30 GMT.
Attention will be almost entirely directed to the US economic agenda. Goods Trade Balance for February is set to be publish as of 12:30 GMT. Last month, the Commerce Department reported a trade deficit of -68.84 billion dollars. The Conference Board will release its March read on Consumer Confidence as of 14:00 GMT, with expectations currently standing at 113.0 points from a previous 114.8 points. FOMC Governor Kaplan is expected to give another speech around 17:00 GMT. Ten minutes to midnight, Japan’s Retail Sales for February will be available.
Midweek gem will certainly be oil statistics. The US Energy Information Administration will release its weekly report on crude and refined products inventories. Last Wednesday, the agency said crude stockpiles increased by almost 5 million barrels, which fueled concerns that rising US shale production will derail OPEC-led output cuts. Investors will also pay attention to the API report, which is publish a day earlier. Pending Home Sales are due at 14:00 GMT.
Trading will start early on Thursday, with Switzerland’s KOF Leading Indicators for March scheduled at 7:00 GMT (don’t forget your coffee). A preliminary reading on the German Consumer Price Index for March will be available at 12:00 GMT, with a 0.5 percent build seen. After that, attention will shift to the United States, where fourth quarter GDP is set to be released while expectations point at a 2.0 percent growth rate. In Asia, Japan will continue to set the tone with Household Spending, Jobs/Applications Ratio and CPI data for February at 23:00 GMT, and Industrial Production for February as of 23:50 GMT.
Following Japan’s data pack, China will present Manufacturing and non-Manufacturing PMI for March at 01:00 GMT. Moving closer to European hours, Germany will release Retail Sales for February and Unemployment data for March at 08:00 GMT, with analysts forecasting a reduction of 10,000 people. In the United Kingdom, Q4 Business Investment, Current Account and Gross Domestic Product will be out as of 08:30 GMT. Eurozone’s preliminary CPI for March will be available at 09:30, with a 1.8 percent increase seen. US traders will also count on some extra data to close weekly traders. Core PCE Price Index and Personal Spending for February will be released at 12:30 GMT, followed by Michigan’s Consumer Expectations and Sentiment for March as of 14:00 GMT. Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count is set at 18:00 GMT.