Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve raised its short-term interest rate for the second time in almost a decade. The move was widely anticipated by investors, which reached to the conclusion due to several factors, including upbeat labor market conditions, inflation data and a recent change in Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s rhetoric.
That’s right. The Fed Chief has modified her approach to monetary policy normalization over the last few months, a sudden hawkish change that investors just couldn’t let pass. However, the latest FOMC statement and remarks from Yellen were seen as less hawkish than expected.
Once again, investors have started to wonder whether the Federal Reserve will move forward with other benchmark rates increases this year or rather wait for further economic reports as the Trump administration continues to settle in (together with its political agenda)
“If things really take off, if we get continued strong growth and if underlying inflation really picks up, we could get four [rate increases] this year,” said Chicago Fed President Charles Evans in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Monday.
Evans also explained that there is no strong case so far to consider four rate hikes. Inflation and other indicators would have to (of course) back such decision.
"If I thought that I was inclined to four rate hikes for 2017 I would presumably be seeing a much stronger lift in inflation, I think it would be accompanied by a meaningful increase in long term inflation expectations."
And that’s the big question, not if there will be more rate hikes this year, but how many of them. Before the March meeting, investors were only weighing in two rate hikes for this year, one in June and another one in December. The March hike was a game changer.
Conservative analysts believe three rate hikes is the way to go, with March, June and December as tentative dates. An increasing number of traders, and not only traders, think there could be more than three rate moves later this year, especially due to speculation on Trump policies.
US stock markets have been growing consistently since November elections based on expectations that a Trump government will promote solid economic growth by rising fiscal spending, lowering business taxes and deregulating key industries.
In order to answer our main question, we may have to keep our eyes wide open and carefully follow key Fed indicators, such as employment data and CPI reports.

GOLD
Gold futures fell in Asian hours on Wednesday as market participants prepared for a long-awaited formal application of the United Kingdom to leave the European Union.
British Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty later in the day. Negotiations between the UK and the bloc can take up to two years.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for April delivery dropped 0.48 percent to trade at $1249.60 a troy ounce as of 07:00 GMT.
The yellow metal closed mostly flat on Tuesday, remaining near one-month peaks as players shifted their focus to economic reports and speeches from FOMC officials in search for hints on the timing of the next Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
Earlier this week, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said that the US regulator is likely to continue on its path for monetary normalization and even four rate hikes were on the table if economic data supported the decision.
Gold futures have started the week with strong support as the Trump administration failed to get enough votes to push its healthcare bill in Congress, unveiling coordination problems between the President and its Republican party. The news increased concerns that other economic policies will face same fate in Congress unless the government changes its approach.

OIL
Oil futures moved higher in Asian session on Wednesday as disruptions to Libyan crude production prompt up prices after an industry report showed a larger-than-expected build in US stockpiles last week, while investors looked ahead of official figures in the day.
US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $48.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 0.48 percent from its previous settlement. The international Brent crude oil futures rose by 0.41 percent to trade at $51.54 a barrel as of 05:05 GMT.
According to the American Petroleum Institute, crude oil inventories increased by more than 1.91 million barrels in the week ended on March 24, while gasoline stockpiles came down by 1.10 million barrels and distillates dropped by 2.04 million barrels.
The US Energy Information Administration will release its weekly official report on crude and refined products stockpiles at 14:30 GMT, with analysts seeing a 1.357 million barrels increase.
Meanwhile, Libyan crude output has come under significant pressure after armed groups blocked oil production in Sharara and Wafa, which accounts for 252,000 barrels per day.
In other news, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh anticipated that a joint output cut extension between OPEC and non-OPEC countries is possibly going to be renewed for another period.
The oil cartel, in collaboration with independent producers such as Russia, agreed to reduce global output levels by 1.8 million barrels per day during the first six months of 2017.

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Wall Street index futures pointed to a higher opening on Tuesday pre-session hours as investors prepared for economic data and Fed speakers, including Chairwoman Janet Yellen.
US stock indexes ended mostly lower on Monday as the recent healthcare failure continued to weigh on market sentiment and players started to wonder about the future of the tax reform.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed nearly 45 points to the downside, with investment bank Goldman Sachs as the main decliner. The S&P 500 also came under pressure, dragged by banking and telecom stocks. The Nasdaq was the only index that closed on a high note.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.22 percent / 20550.98 points
• Standard & Poor’s 500: -0.10 percent / 2341.59 points
• Nasdaq Composite: +0.20 percent / 5840.37 points

The Trump administration received a major political hit last Friday, as it was unable to coordinate efforts with GOP members to pass the American Health Care Act in Congress. It was the first serious legislation presented by the new government and it was meant to repeal and replace Obamacare, a heavily criticized law by Republicans.
The healthcare bill vote was pulled and with it, expectations for other economic promises vanished. Trumpcare was seen by investors as an example of how the government deals with congressmen and GOP leadership. The negative outcome has been interpreted as a sign of weakness from a negotiation standpoint, which adds concerns over a long-awaited tax reform.
There were no relevant economic reports published on Monday. Tuesday’s data front includes goods trade balance for February as of 12:30 GMT, with expectations for a deficit of $66.60 billions from a previous 68.84 billions. S&P Case-Shiller HPI for January will be available at 13:00 GMT. The Conference Board will also present its Consumer Confidence index for March at 14:00 GMT, with 114.0 points seen by economists.
Market participants will be paying close attention to a fresh batch of speeches from FOMC officials this week. Kansas City Fed President Esther George is scheduled to speak at 16:45 GMT, only five minutes before Fed Chair Janet Yellen begins talking on workforce development in Washington. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan is also part of the agenda today, with his remarks starting at 17:00 GMT, while Fed Governor Jerome Powell is coming at 20:30 GMT.

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It’s been a while since we have spoken about Brexit and its effects on the British economy and financial markets. But here we are and with great timing, just few days ahead of a long-awaited formal application to exit the European Union.
British Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty on March 29, giving a first official step to leave the bloc and start negotiations with Brussels. This event has been followed carefully by traders as markets would certainly react on the news.
But hey… what is Article 50? In simply words, it’s the reserves the right for any EU state to quit the bloc unilaterally. It also sets a procedure for leaving the European Union. Article 50 was included in 2007, before there was not legal way to abandon the community.

Three facts about Article 50:

• Once triggered, it cannot be stopped. That’s why it’s so important for markets and well… everybody else. There is no way around it and once it’s done, (oh boy) it’s done.
• The parties involved have two years to negotiate terms of an exit. Yeap. You’ll have to be patience. Not all things move as fast as markets do, especially politicians.
• The final deal between the United Kingdom and the EU has to be passed in the European Parliament and approved by a qualified majority of EU member states

While analysts had forecasted a terrible crisis following the Brexit vote, the UK economy has proven them wrong so far. Actually, it has performed much better-than-expected. Activity, employment and national accounts continued to show improvement and remain healthy. Yes. There has a been a moderate slowdown in investments, but overall the picture is nice.
However, the British pound has indeed suffered since last June. After the post-referendum drop, the currency was able to recover and it’s currently trading above the 1.2500 mark. But market analysts from big banks are bearish on the middle/long-term, so be aware. Currencies tend to react faster than any other assets on the market, so if you are planning to trade the official announcement on Thursday, keep your eyes on the GBPUSD, EURGBP and GOLD.
As the process moves forward, investors will have to pay attention to the talks and while they will be long and tedious, they will also worth it 100 percent. Again, currencies and bonds are possibly the best two most volatile assets affected by sentiment during negotiations.

GOLD
Gold prices edged down in Asian trade on Tuesday as investors received higher demand estimations from China after a report showed that gold imports rose by 50.8% in February.
China is one of gold’s main buyers and any news regarding demand usually has a big impact on bullion prices. Also, a weakening yuan is seen as an opportunity for higher gold demand.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for April delivery dropped 0.21 percent to trade at $1253.10 a troy ounce as of 06:20 GMT.
The yellow metal ended in green territory on Monday amid growing concerns over the Trump administration and its ability to convince and coordinate efforts with Congress.
Last Friday, Trump’s American Health Care Act (AHCA) was pulled after not enough votes were secured within the GOP, leaving the new government totally empty handed. The AHCA was meant to repeal and replace the so-called Obamacare, but some Republicans believed the new law was not hard enough and even described it as a “light” Obamacare version.
Gold prices moved higher over political uncertainty and concerns of investors regarding the future of other economic promises such as the tax reform or deregulation measures. Trumpcare was seen by investors as an example of the government’s power to push its new agenda.
Market sentiment was certainly affected by the news, although House Speaker Paul Ryan said the cancellation of the healthcare bill vote was not going to stop the tax reform initiative.

OIL
US prices moved higher in Asian hours on Tuesday, with market participants looked ahead of an industry report on the US crude stockpiles and as the International Energy Agency anticipated a larger demand of crude oil in Asia.
US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $48.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 0.67 percent from its previous settlement. The international Brent crude oil futures soared by 0.59 percent to trade at $51.05 a barrel as of 05:45 GMT.
The American Petroleum Institute is set to release its weekly report on crude and refined products stockpiles, which will be followed by the official report of the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. API figures are usually taken as an anticipation of official data.
For the week ended on March 24, economists expected a 1.183 million barrels increase in crude inventories, while distillates and gasoline stockpiles were due to fall in 1.106 and 1.933 million barrels respectively.
Oil benchmarks came under pressure overnight as market players doubted that OPEC and non-OPEC countries will be able to agree on the extension of the so-called output freeze deal. Last weekend, ministers from both parts met in Kuwait to discuss the developments of the current agreement and made clear that a six month extension is still on the table.
The oil cartel and non-OPEC producers such as Russia agreed in November 2016 to reduce production levels by 1.8 million barrels per day in order to rebalance market forces. However, increasing US shale oil production has been threatening to detail OPEC-led efforts. According to the latest EIA report, US crude reserves stand at a record high of 533.1 million barrels.

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US equities pointed to a lower opening on Monday amid an empty agenda and as traders looked ahead of a fresh batch of economic data and FOMC speakers.
Wall Street indexes ended mixed on Friday after Donald Trump suffered one of his major politicals hits since he officially became President of the United States.
The American Health Care Act (AHCA), a law meant to repeal and replace the so-called Obamacare, was pulled on Friday before moving to Congress for voting.
The bill faced strong opposition in several fronts, even from GOP members. According to political analysts, there were between 28 and 35 Republicans ready to vote against Trump’s AHCA on Friday, although the new administration couldn’t afford more than 21 no-votes.
From a market perspective, this is a big downturn for Trump’s government. The AHCA was the first serious legislation presented to the Congress and a key piece designed to take away one of Barack Obama’s biggest achievements. Investors saw the healthcare bill as an example of whether Trump can coordinate efforts with Congress or not. Everything is a bit clearer now.
With the AHCA off the road, focus has shifted to other pending questions, such as the long-awaited tax reform or deregulation measures. Uncertainty starts to play again in traders’ minds, slowly but steady. Will Trump present its tax reform? When? What about Congress?...
The Dow Jones industrial average closed nearly 60 points down after showing its worst performance in months on Thursday. The S&P 500 also ended in red territory, with materials dragging it down. The Nasdaq composite was able to finish on the upside.

Boom… Trump’s healthcare bill is over. Or at least for now. The vote was pulled after President Donald Trump understood on Friday not enough Republicans were going to support the project.
Markets reacted quickly on the news, with US stock futures posting strong losses in pre-session trading on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down by more than 165 points in early hours, while S&P 500 futures dipped nearly one percent, just like Nasdaq 100 futures came down by more than 50 points.
Asian stock indexes also moved lower on Trump’s healthcare failure, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 index ending down by 1.44%. The USDJPY felt nearly one percent in Asian hours, posting one of its worst days since the November election. In commodity markets, gold futures rose due to growing uncertainty to trade around $1,257.90 per ounce.
The US dollar index (USDX), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, came down by 0.3 percent to 99.29. The index had reached a 14-year peak of 104.00 in January, over expectations that Trump will bring solid economic growth and higher rates.
Market analysts have been warning for quite sometime that this event will be crucial for the Trump administration as investors treated the healthcare bill as a signal of whether the president is able to coordinate efforts with Congress to promote his agenda or not.
US equity markets have been rising steadily since November 2016 over speculation of higher fiscal spending, tax reform and deregulation in several industries.
The American Health Care Act (AHCA) was Trump’s first attempt to pass a major bill in Congress. Troubles within its own party left him empty handed and on the verge of even bigger problems, such as lack of confidence from investors.

So… what now?
Wall Street is a drama queen. But that doesn’t mean you should be too. On Friday, House Speaker Paul Ryan recognized it was a disappointing day for the Trump administration but reassured that the tax reform is still on the table and the healthcare downturn won’t stop it.
"Yes, this does make tax reform more difficult. But it does not, in any way, make it impossible. We will proceed with tax reform," Ryan said in a late-night conference.
It’s probably a good time to revise all what happened until now and see what the near future has to offer, possibly a lot. So don’t be sad, the Trump rally might not over after all.

GOLD
Gold futures moved higher in Asian trade on Monday amid growing political risks ahead of Britain’s official application to leave the European Union.
Theresa May’s government is due to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty later this week, which will be the first formal step to start Brexit negotiations with EU headquarters.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for April delivery rose 0.78 percent to trade at $1258.30 a troy ounce as of 06:45 GMT.
In a light day for economic data, gold traders are expected to follow remarks from Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan. Market participants are searching for hints on the timing of the next Fed move. Additionally, German lfo Business Climate is set to be published as of 08:00 GMT.
Washington agenda continues in focus after President Donald Trump pulled the healthcare vote due to lack of support to pass the American Health Care Act bill in Congress last Friday.
The Trump administration needed to secure 215 votes and could only afford to lose 21 Republican seats, although more than 28 GOP members had anticipated a ‘no’ vote.
The healthcare bill failure comes in at crucial times for the new administration, as Wall Street seems to be on the verge of a massive correction in the light of non-delivered Trump promises.
Investors were following Trumpcare to understand whether the Republican leader was able to effectively convince its own party to pass the bill and coordinate efforts. This negative output is expected to kill expectations for a tax reform or deregulation measures in the short term.

OIL
Oil futures dipped in Asian hours on Monday following a meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC ministers regarding a possible extension of the output cut agreement.
In a joint statement, the oil cartel and independent producers have agreed to consider extending the output reductions for another six months after June.
US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $47.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 0.85 percent from its previous settlement. The international Brent crude oil futures dropped 0.65 percent to trade at $50.47 a barrel as of 06:45 GMT.
Ahead this week, investors will be paying to fresh US crude oil inventories on Tuesday (API) and Wednesday (EIA) and Baker Hughes’ weekly oil rig count on Friday.
Oil benchmarks ended in red territory last Friday, down by 2 percent after Baker Hughes said oil rigs rose by 21 units to a total of 652 platforms, the highest level since September 2015. Market players are worried that increasing US shale production will derail OPEC-led efforts.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to reduce global output by nearly 2 percent, which accounts for 1.8 million barrels per day, in collaboration with non-OPEC producers such as Russia. The deal is effective for the first six months of the year.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude reserves increased by almost 5 million barrels in the week ended March 17, leaving the total count at a record high of 533.1 million barrels, fueling concerns among market players and pushing prices to the downside.

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US equity futures ended in red territory on Thursday as late-night negotiations between Donald Trump and the Republican leadership over the Trumpcare vote offered no results.
The House Republicans were expected to decide on Thursday whether to support or not the American Health Care Act, which is meant to replace the still ongoing Obamacare, but has fallen under heavy scrutiny from both political parties.
The Republican vote was finally moved to Friday, with expectations running low for the Trump administration. According to analysts, at least 28 GOP seats will be voting ‘no’, although the government cannot afford to lose more than 21 votes in order to pass the bill.
While the Senate will most likely stop the bill again if passed today, this vote is more than just about healthcare. Investors are trying to figure out if the new administration is able to coordinate efforts within its own party, which is a key factor in the future of other laws coming up.
Since November 2016, US stock indexes have been rallying over speculation that Trump economic policies will promote a solid GDP growth by implementing tax cuts, deregulating industries and increasing fiscal spending.
The Dow Jones industrial average was down by 5 points, with UnitedHealth on top of decliners. The S&P 500 followed the negative trend as healthcare and energy components dragged it down, while the Nasdaq composite ended nearly a point lower after reaching an intraday high.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.02 percent / 20656.58 points
• Standard & Poor’s 500: -0.11 percent / 2345.96 points
• Nasdaq Composite: -0.07 percent / 5817.69 points

Weekly jobless claims came in at 258,000, adding 15,000 from the previous week. Economists were expecting a move to 240,000. Also, new home sales touched a seven-month peak in February, increasing by 6.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted y/y 592,000 units.
Today, market attention will remain on the healthcare vote and economic reports. Durable goods orders for February is due at 12:30 GMT, with analysts forecasting a 1.2 percent growth.
Preliminary readings on the manufacturing and services PMIs for March will be out at 13:45 GMT. Estimations stand at 54.8 and 54.2 points respectively. Last but not least, Baker Hughes will release its weekly oil rig count as of 18:00 GMT.

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Monday
Good guess! Monday brings no excitement (as usual). The European session will count however on German Business Expectations, Current Assessment and lfo Business Climate Index for March are scheduled at 08:00 GMT. Traders will keep their eyes on these figures as Europe’s first economy has a huge impact on ECB decisions. Lately, the regulator has been on the spotlight concerning its current monetary policy. While inflation has recently reached the 2 percent target, ECB President Draghi seems reluctant to cut monetary stimulus. Talking about central banks… San Francisco Fed President Robert Kaplan is due to speak at 22:30 GMT.

Tuesday
Attention will be almost entirely directed to the US economic agenda. Goods Trade Balance for February is set to be publish as of 12:30 GMT. Last month, the Commerce Department reported a trade deficit of -68.84 billion dollars. The Conference Board will release its March read on Consumer Confidence as of 14:00 GMT, with expectations currently standing at 113.0 points from a previous 114.8 points. FOMC Governor Kaplan is expected to give another speech around 17:00 GMT. Ten minutes to midnight, Japan’s Retail Sales for February will be available.

Wednesday
Midweek gem will certainly be oil statistics. The US Energy Information Administration will release its weekly report on crude and refined products inventories. Last Wednesday, the agency said crude stockpiles increased by almost 5 million barrels, which fueled concerns that rising US shale production will derail OPEC-led output cuts. Investors will also pay attention to the API report, which is publish a day earlier. Pending Home Sales are due at 14:00 GMT.

Thursday
Trading will start early on Thursday, with Switzerland’s KOF Leading Indicators for March scheduled at 7:00 GMT (don’t forget your coffee). A preliminary reading on the German Consumer Price Index for March will be available at 12:00 GMT, with a 0.5 percent build seen. After that, attention will shift to the United States, where fourth quarter GDP is set to be released while expectations point at a 2.0 percent growth rate. In Asia, Japan will continue to set the tone with Household Spending, Jobs/Applications Ratio and CPI data for February at 23:00 GMT, and Industrial Production for February as of 23:50 GMT.

Friday
Following Japan’s data pack, China will present Manufacturing and non-Manufacturing PMI for March at 01:00 GMT. Moving closer to European hours, Germany will release Retail Sales for February and Unemployment data for March at 08:00 GMT, with analysts forecasting a reduction of 10,000 people. In the United Kingdom, Q4 Business Investment, Current Account and Gross Domestic Product will be out as of 08:30 GMT. Eurozone’s preliminary CPI for March will be available at 09:30, with a 1.8 percent increase seen. US traders will also count on some extra data to close weekly traders. Core PCE Price Index and Personal Spending for February will be released at 12:30 GMT, followed by Michigan’s Consumer Expectations and Sentiment for March as of 14:00 GMT. Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count is set at 18:00 GMT.

GOLD
Gold prices edged lower in Asian trading on Friday as sentiment continues to be determined by the healthcare bill vote, which has been moved for today after a late-night meeting yesterday.
Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney said President Donald Trump is “done negotiating” and intends to move forward with the vote whatever the result.
Analysts believe that if Trumpcare doesn’t get enough support from House Republicans, the President will shift its focus to other campaign priorities, such as the tax reform or deregulation.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for April delivery was down 0.39 percent to trade at $1242.30 a troy ounce as of 06:40 GMT.
Bullion settled in red territory on Thursday as the US dollar extended losses in the light of mixed economic reports and ahead of a key vote for the new government.
According to the latest report from the Commerce Department, new home sales rose by 6.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted y/y 592,000 units in February, against 0.7 percent seen.
In other news, initial jobless claims came in at 258,000 for the week ended March 17, up by 15,000 from previous week’s 243,000. Analysts had forecasted a 1,000 build to 240,000.

OIL
Oil benchmarks moved to the upside in Asian hours on Friday with eyes placed at a meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC products this weekend regarding output cuts and as traders looked ahead of the weekly oil rig report.
US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $47.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 0.31 percent from its previous settlement. The international Brent crude oil futures rose 0.18 percent to trade at $50.65 a barrel as of 07:05 GMT.
Oilfield service provider Baker Hughes will release its weekly oil rig count as of 18:00 GMT. Last week, the company reported a new build that left the total count at 631 units.
On Thursday, crude prices remained under pressure over concerns that increasing US shale production will derail OPEC-led efforts to rebalance oil supply levels.
A day earlier, the US Energy Information Administration reported a build in crude stockpiles by almost 5 million barrels for the week ended March 17, sending the total reserves to a peak of 533.1 million barrels.
Investors are currently searching for hints of whether the oil cartel and other independent producers will extend output cuts for another six months.
While compliance levels remain high over OPEC’s 1.8-million-bpd cut agreement, reports have showed that the oil group’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia has been reducing more than expected in order to keep up the rhythm of other countries.

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GOLD
Gold prices edged down in early morning trade on Thursday as market participants looked ahead of the House Republicans vote on Trump’s American Health Care Act.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for April delivery was down 0.17 percent to trade at $1247.60 a troy ounce as of 07:10 GMT.
Investors are worried that GOP members will decide not to support the bill, increasing concerns that the Trump administration won’t be able to deliver economic promises due to lack of coordination with its own party in Congress.
The AHCA is meant to replace the so-called Obamacare plan, which has been heavily criticized during the Trump campaign. The new bill needs a simple majority to be approved, with most the attention focused on the Republicans as Democrats are not expected to support it anyhow.
So far, the bill stands on a complicated balance. At least 28 Republicans are expected to vote no on Trump’s project, putting Washington on a difficult spot as they should lose more than 21 votes for a victory.
On Wednesday, political uncertainty favoured bullion as investors opted for a wait-and-see positioning until the vote and moved capital to safe-haven assets such as gold.
In economic news, US existing home sales pushed down the dollar, which benefited gold prices. According to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors, resales fell by 3.7 percent to a 5.48 million units last month.

OIL
Oil futures moved higher in Asian hours on Thursday as investors quickly recovered from US inventories data and prepared for the weekly oil rig count.
US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $48.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 0.62 percent from its previous settlement. The international Brent crude oil futures rose 0.57 percent to trade at $50.93 a barrel as of 07:10 GMT.
On Wednesday, oil benchmarks came under pressure after the US Energy Information Administration said crude inventories increased by 5 million barrels in the week ended March 17 to a record high of 533.1 million barrels. Analysts had forecasted a 2.8 million barrel increase.
Gasoline stockpiles continued to decline, this time by 2.811 million barrels vs. a 2.008 million barrels reduction seen. Distillate products dropped by 1.910 million barrels, againsts expectations for a draw of 1.386 million barrels.
Today, Baker Hughes will release its latest oil rig count as of 18:00 GMT. Last week, the oilfield services provider reported a build of 14 units to a total of 631 platforms.
In the last few weeks, oil benchmarks were under pressure over concerns that OPEC-led efforts will be jeopardized by growing US shale production. The oil cartel and other independent producers such as Russia agreed to cut 1.8 million bpd in the first six months of this year.

Fort Financial Services

Diversification is a key issue in every trader’s career that has to be addressed sooner or later. Why? Because it helps you make more money and be exposed to less risk. But let’s be organized and read a good definition from Investopedia before moving forward.
“Diversification is a risk management technique that mixes a wide variety of investments within a portfolio. The rationale behind this technique contends that a portfolio constructed of different kinds of investments will, on average, yield higher returns and pose a lower risk than any individual investment found within the portfolio.”
After this definition, there are three elements we should pay attention to:
Risk reduction
Example: if your only position is a long EURUSD and the Fed unexpectedly rises interest rates, the pair will probably move lower, forcing you to close the order and loose some money. However, if you diversify your portfolio by opening different positions your profits or losses won’t be determined by only one trade but rather by the total result. Following this example, if you had a long USDJPY, then you would compensate your EURUSD drawdown.
Higher returnsExample: the key principle for higher returns is that when things go north, especially using correlation of currency pairs, you would profit not from one single position, but from all of them, leaving you with a juicy amount of money on your pocket.
Larger exposure to opportunities
Example: the logic behind is pretty simple. If you have one position, your results will be determined by a few economic events. On the other side, if you start trading multiple assets, then your opportunities will be open to a vast number of events global scale.
So… what is currency correlation and how it can help you diversify your investment?
According to Investopedia, “correlation is the statistical measure of the relationship between two securities. The correlation coefficient ranges between -1 and +1. A correlation of +1 implies that the two currency pairs will move in the same direction 100% of the time. A correlation of -1 implies the two currency pairs will move in the opposite direction 100% of the time. A correlation of zero implies that the relationship between the currency pairs is completely random.”
In simple words, it measures how two different assets are related and therefore, have potential to work together to move into one direction or opposite directions.
Example: let’s say you are a faithful trader of EURUSD. Without diversifying, you probably just place one, two, or infinite number of orders just for EURUSD. However, there are few pairs just like the GBPUSD or AUDUSD that are strongly correlated with the price action of the EURUSD pair. So if the EURUSD moves north, those other pairs are likely to follow that same direction. On the other hand, there are pairs such as the USDJPY that display a negative correlation, which means it will most probably move on the opposite direction.
In case you are wondering what correlates with what, check out this free tool: https://goo.gl/TWux94
Ready to go traders!

GOLD
Gold prices moved higher in early European hours on Wednesday following hawkish remarks from FOMC speakers regarding the policy normalization process.
As the FOMC statement and Janet Yellen’s speech last week used a more dovish than expected tone, investors are looking for hints on the regulator’s next moves.
On Tuesday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that she believes more than three interest rate hikes will announce during this year.

Wall Street stock index futures pointed to a lower opening in pre-session hours on Monday as traders looked ahead of President Donald Trump conference this evening.
The Republican leader will be speaking at Louisville’s Freedom Hall in Kentucky, one of the most pro-Trump states, according to statistics. Investors are expecting some hints on further economic plans, including details of the controversial healthcare reform.
On Friday, different classes of futures and options contracts expired, which provided extra volatility and boosted trading volumes across the markets.
Washington’s agenda continues to be at center stage for market players, who speculate on higher fiscal spending, tax cuts and deregulation for several industries.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.10 percent / 20914.62 points
• Standard & Poor’s 500: -0.13 percent / 2378.25 points
• Nasdaq Composite: +0.00 percent / 5901.00 points

In economic news, industrial production for February came in at 0.00 percent, against a 0.2 percent build seen by analysts. Preliminary consumer sentiment from Michigan University was better-than-expected at 97.6 points from a previous month 95.7 points.
Last week, the Federal Reserve increased its short-term benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 0.75 percent to 1.00 percent, its second adjustment in the last three months.
As the rate move was widely anticipated, investors focused on Janet Yellen’s press conference. While Fed Chairwoman’s remarks were overall hawkish, they were not as hawkish as expected.
The data front remains empty today, with US President Donald Trump speech due as of 23:30 GMT. Attention has shifted to a fresh batch of FOMC speakers schedule this week, including Fed’s Yellen. Investors will be searching for hints on the timing of the next interest rate hike.

Fort Financial Services

Monday
Event: US President Trump Speech 23:30 GMT
All eyes on Washington, well… more like Louisville, Kentucky this time. That’s right. President Donald Trump will be holding a rally at city’s Freedom Hall on Monday. This is not the first time Trump visits Louisville. During his presidential campaign, he offered two conferences. While investors are not expecting something extraordinary from this event, Trump could unveil some further details on his economic agenda to create positive buzz.

Tuesday
Event: FOMC Dudley 10:00 GMT + George 16:00 GMT + Mester 22:00 GMT
As the Federal Open Market Committee raised interest rates last week by 25 basis points, market focus has now turned to the future plans of the regulator. For this reason, investors will be paying close attention to speeches from FOMC officials. On Tuesday, Fed Bank of New York Governor William Dudley will be talking as of 10:00 GMT, followed by Kansas City Fed President Esther George at 16:00 GMT. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester is expected to participate at the Business Speaker Series of the University of Richmond Robins School as of 22:00 GMT.

Wednesday
Event: Existing Home Sales 14:00 GMT + EIA Crude Inventories 14:30 GMT
Real estate is a key sector for the US economy and therefore, all data related to it attracts large attention. At this stage, market players are expecting to see 1.8 percent reduction for February from a previous increase of 3.3 percent. Overall, home sales are a good indicator of economic strength and the Federal Reserve will take it into account to define or adjust the course of its monetary policy. Also in the day, the US Energy Information Administration will release its latest report on crude and refined products inventories. These figures will certainly be on the spotlight after last week’s unexpected crude stockpiles reduction.

Thursday
Event: Jobless Claims 12:30 GMT + New Home Sales 14:00 GMT + Fed Yellen 12:45 GMT
Last week’s read on jobless benefits applications will be released at midday. Following existing home sales, new home sales figures will be available on Thursday, with analysts forecasting a 0.6 percent build for February. Another batch of FOMC officials will be speaking during the session, although traders will be focused on Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at the Federal Reserve System Community Development Research.

Friday
Event: Durable Goods Orders 12:30 GMT + Manufacturing & Services PMI 13:45 GMT
The week couldn’t end without an exciting set of data. Durable goods orders for February will be available at 12:30 GMT. Economists are estimating a 1.2 percent build month-over-month. Also, Markit will release preliminary manufacturing and services PMI indexes for March, with expectations pointing at 54.8 and 54.3 points respectively. FOMC members Bullard and Dudley will be offering some keynotes during the day. Baker Hughes oil rig count is set at 18:00 GMT.

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GOLD
Gold prices moved higher in Asian hours on Monday, with market players turning their focus into fresh speeches from FOMC officials scheduled this week.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for April delivery was 0.31 percent higher at $1234.00 a troy ounce as of 07:00 GMT.
A large number of Fed officials will be speaking during the week, including Chairwoman Janet Yellen. With a less-hawkish-than-expected March meeting on our back, investors will be paying close attention to remarks of policymakers in search for hints on timing of the next rate hike.
Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee announced a new rate hike of its short-term rate by 25 basis points to a range of 0.75 - 1.00 percent.
The FOMC statement and Janet Yellen’s conference showed a moderate rhetoric, although the key message was that the US economy is doing well and if it continues to perform at the current pace, another two benchmark rate hikes will come later this year.
Against the odds, gold prices reacted upwards to the FOMC rate hike last week. Market analysts described it as an inverse “buy the rumour, sell on fact”. Gold traders had been selling ahead of the March meeting and once the hike was confirmed, the opened long positions again.
As usual, Monday’s economic agenda is looking a bit empty. Traders will be expecting US President Donald Trump speech at 23:30 GMT.

OIL
Oil prices edged lower on Monday amid increasing US shale production and worries that OPEC-led efforts won’t be enough to fight global oversupply.
US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $48.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 0.83 percent from its previous settlement. The international Brent crude oil futures slipped 0.64 percent to trade at $51.43 a barrel as of 07:00 GMT.
Market participants are fearing that production cuts promised by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers such as Russia will not be able to counteract a rising US drilling. OPEC and non-OPEC countries have agreed to shred nearly 1.8 million barrels per day from global production in the first six month of 2017.
On Friday, oil service provider Baker Hughes reported a new build in the US oil rig count. According to data, US drillers added 14 rigs in the week ended March 17, moving the total count to 631 platforms, the highest level since September 2015.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 237,000 barrels reduction in crude inventories for the week ended March 10, while analysts had forecast a 3.7 million barrels build. These unexpected outcome broke a winning streak of nine consecutive weeks.
According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), oil traders have cut their long positions on crude futures and options last week, putting their bets on lower crude prices.

Fort Financial Services

US equity futures pointed to a flat open on Friday pre-session hours as market participants looked ahead of fresh economic reports while keeping an eye on the G20 meeting.
Wall Street top three indexes ended mostly lower on Thursday, with utilities and healthcare sector values falling around 1 percent during the session. Meanwhile, the financial sector was able to rise 0.3 percent by the end of trades.
According to market analysts, the downturn of healthcare stocks was triggered by President Trump’s intention to trim $5.8 billion from the National Institute of Health in its new budget.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.07 percent / 20934.55 points
• Standard & Poor’s 500: -0.16 percent / 2381.38 points
• Nasdaq Composite: +0.01 percent / 5900.76 points

In economic news, building permits disappointed investors by falling 6.2 percent in February, more than a 2.6 percent forecasted reduction. Housing starts rose 3.0 percent, well above expectations for a 1.4 percent increase. Initial jobless claims dropped by 2,000 to 241,000.
Other news included the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for Marc, which came in at 32.8 points from a previous 43.3 and 30.0 seen by analysts. Also, JOLTs job openings for January were better-than-expected at 5.626 million against 5.450 million initially estimated.
Earlier this week, the Federal Open Market Committee rose interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 0.75 - 1.00 percent, marking its second move in less than six months. While the FOMC statement was certainly hawkish, it was less hawkish than market players expected. Inflation and labor market conditions remain in focus to determine future benchmark rate hikes.
As for today, attention will be at industrial production figures for February at 13:15 GMT, with analysts pointing at a 0.2 percent build. Michigan consumer expectations and sentiment for March will be released as of 14:00 GMT. Oil service provider Baker Hughes will also present its weekly oil rig count, which last week moved to 617 units.
Finance ministers and central bankers from the G20 group meet today at Baden-Baden to discuss several topics, including currency confusion, “America First” policies, the role of a strong US dollar in the world, global growth concerns and Africa’s challenges.

The Federal Open Market Committee raised for a second time in three months its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 0.75 percent to 1.00 percent. But that was no surprise.
According to fed funds tracked by CME Group’s FedWatch program, traders were pricing in nearly a 95 percent chance of a rate hike in March. Now, if you were checking on markets that day or even today, you have probably noticed that gold prices jumped after the rate decision.
Gold is a dollar-priced commodity that is usually coming under significant pressure when the Federal Reserve increases rates. Higher rates make the dollar stronger and the yellow metal less competitive for investors holding foreign currencies. So why it went up on Wednesday?
There is a common market saying “buy the rumor, sell on fact”. This might be one of the keys to understand such inexplicable dynamic. In other words, it’s all about speculation. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, bullion futures had dropped to multimonth lows.
The downtrend was accompanied by increasing expectations for a rate hike this month. Market players were opening positions in anticipation to the main event and therefore, starting the party before anyone’s birthday. When the FOMC announcement hit markets, everyone felt too tired to keep dancing and decided to take profits and open long positions, sending prices to the sky.
As there is a negative correlation between benchmark rate hikes and gold prices, the market phenomena mentioned above also inverses to “sell the rumor, buy on fact”. This is a common strategy proper to be used ahead of big events such as FOMC meetings, referendums, elections and others. However, it should be kept into account that there are high risks involved.

Try it yourself…?
The Federal Reserve is forecasting another two hikes later this year, possible in June and December. But that will depend on the economic reports.
Once you see that inflation and employment are displaying solid results and Fed Chair Janet Yellen opts for a hawkish tone together with other FOMC officials, it’s time to move. Check on CME Group’s expectations for a rate hike and take as a reference of what markets players think.
If you are speculating on a rate hike, few days before the event go short on gold and long on the dollar. Once data is confirmed, don’t forget to close your positions.

GOLD
Gold prices edged down in Asian trade on Friday as sentiment continues to be determined by political risk and interpretations of the latest Federal Reserve statement.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for April delivery was unchanged at $1227.10 a troy ounce as of 06:45 GMT.
Overnight, bullion extended gains while the dollar continued to drop over a typical “buy the rumor, sell on fact” strategy following the Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee rose its short-term benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 0.75 percent to 1.00 percent. It is the second rate move in just three months and the regulator insisted on its plan to hike another two times later this year.
The US central bank will continue to adjust interest rates in a gradual way during 2017 and 2018. Until February, market players were pricing in only two hikes for this year, but a sudden change in Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s rhetoric increased speculation over a March rate hike.
Yellen’s press conference on Wednesday was more dovish than expected, although she said more hikes are on its way if the economy continues to perform at the current pace. The bank will keep an accommodative monetary policy in order to support developments in the US economy.
US equities have been rallying notably since November 2016 over speculation of higher fiscal spending, tax cuts and deregulation promises from the Trump administration.
Later in the day, trades will pay close attention to industrial production for February at 13:15 GMT, with a 0.2 percent build seen. Michigan consumer expectations and sentiment for March will be out at 14:00 GMT.

OIL
Oil futures were showing little progress in Asian hours on Friday as investors looked ahead of further probes on the effectiveness of OPEC’s output cuts to reduce global oversupply.
US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $49.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 0.20 percent from its prior close. The international Brent crude oil futures rose 0.08 percent to trade at $51.78 a barrel as of 06:30 GMT.
Crude prices have recently dropped over concerns that OPEC-led efforts to rebalance the oil markets could be derailed by increasing US shale production.
Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said on Thursday that if oil inventories continue to be high by mid-year, the output cuts will possibly be extended for another term.
The deal, which involves both OPEC and non-OPEC countries such as Russia, targets a 1.8 million bpd cuts for the first semester of 2017.
Earlier this week, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 237,000 crude oil barrels reduction in the week ended March 10. Analysts had expected a 3.7 million barrels build. Wednesday’s figures marked the first weekly drop in reserves after nine consecutive increases.
Baker Hughes will release its weekly oil rig count at 18:00 GMT. Last week, data exposed a build of 8 platforms, bringing the total count to 617.

Fort Financial Services

From Trump tweets to general elections, these last few months have been pretty intense in global markets for big and small investors alike. New information is available every minute and everybody has instant access to it, which makes trading more volatile and difficult to track.
Many retail investors fear of volatility for several reasons. Unexpected turns in asset prices could either blow up your account or double it. To avoid unwanted moves in our balance, we have put together a simple list of facts that would help you keep calm no matter what.

Take profit / Stop loss orders
Whether you are a day trader or a farmer, everybody wants to sleep without worries at night. But as futures operate 24/5, we want to make money all around the clock. So who we do it without staying awake? We use take profit and stop loss orders to limit unexpected movements of the markets. Just set them everytime you open a new position and renew them later, as you see fit.

Stick to your strategy
We are not saying you should keep a stock for 50 years to make money. Nope. We understand the world is moving at a fast pace right now and we all wish instant result. However, waiting for the right time to buy or sell an asset is part of being successful overtime. When charts go crazy after a rate decision or a referendum, we (naturally) start panicking and that might cost us money (a lot of money). One of the best things you could do is to chill out and stick to your plan, after all that’s why you made a plan, right? Follow your strategy religiously and volatile markets will become less of a threat for your portfolio.

Keep track of execution
Sometimes it’s not our mind, but technology that plays against us and our money. Trading online has huge benefits but that doesn’t mean there is no downside to it. In volatile environments, trading sites usually are affected by strong traffic, which ultimately hits the performance of the site and execution of our orders. In case you pick up one of our accounts at Fort Financial Services, you will enjoy of fast execution under any circumstances. In other cases, make sure your broker provides with quality standards to make sure order execution is not delayed.

Don’t lose your temper
Believe it or not. Trading under difficult ground is a learning stage that you should pass sooner or later. So take it easy and enjoy it. We all experienced ups and downs but here we are, happy to trade each new day. The psychological factor is always a key issue when trading, especially when things start to go south (or north if you are seller). But once you learn how to control your mind and emotions, there are only opportunities ahead.

GOLD

Wall Street futures pointed to a higher in pre-session hours on Wednesday, with market participants entirely focused in the FOMC statement and press conference from Fed’s Yellen.
US equities extended losses on Tuesday amid lower trading volumes as traders opted for wait-and-see positioning before FOMC meeting results.
Energy sector values were among the most negative components during the previous session, trading under significant pressure as crude prices dropped nearly 2 percent in the day.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said output levels continue to move downwards in February as its de facto leader Saudi Arabia compensated reductions that other members were not able to reach.
The oil cartel has pumped a joint 31.96 million bpd last month, down from January’s 32.1 million bpd. The organization has also expressed concern about growing US shale production. Traders believe consistent increases in reserve put in danger OPEC-led cuts effectiveness.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.21 percent / 20837.37 points
Standard & Poor’s 500: -0.34 percent / 2365.45 points
Nasdaq Composite: -0.32 percent / 5856.82 points
On the data front, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported a minor reduction on its small business optimism index of around 0.6 points to 105.3. The Producer Price Index (PPI) registered a 0.3 percent m/m build in February, while a 2.2 percent y/y.
Ahead in the day, the Federal Open Market Committee will present its March statement at 18:00 GMT, with chances for a 25 basis points rate hike standing almost at 100 percent. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be giving a press conference half and hour later.
In economic news, the latest reading on consumer price index will be available at 12:30 GMT. Analysts are expecting a 0.2 percent build for the core index and 0.1 percent increase for the full version of it. Retail sales are also due at 12:30 GMT, with expectations at 0.1 percent. In oil markets, focus will be at the EIA’s weekly inventories at 14:30 GMT.

Fort Financial Services

And here we go again… Yes, pretty much the same feeling we all had on June 23, when Britons hit the polls and voted to leave the European Union in a historic referendum. While in essence we are talking of different things, the Dutch parliamentary election present themselves as a similar event in terms of market sentiment.
On Tuesday, European stock indexes ended mostly lower as investors looked ahead of a political D-day for the bloc, while keeping an eye on the Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
Why this election is special? Simply said, because the Dutch election comes first in a sequence of general elections in Europe’s key economic powers, including France and Germany. Another issue is that all of the countries mentioned above are developing strong far-right movements which intend to follow Britain’s way by leaving the EU and strengthening their migration policies.
So far, the Brexit vote considered as an isolated event. But if new separatist parties take the lead at Europe’s main economies, troubles could be just around the corner.

The process
The Dutch people will vote today March 15 until 20:00 GMT when polling stations are expected to close, unless unexpected delays. While exit polls are published once voting is officially over, government results will available in the next morning, between 4:00 and 5:00 GMT. Political representation is always proportional to the results, making a coalition government a key requirement to govern. Negotiations between parties could take weeks or even months.
The parliament holds 150 seats of which a political party needs 76 so reach a sufficient majority to initiate functions. Therefore, the next government will possible be a mix of four to six parties, according to political analysts.

The candidates

• People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD): 40 seats /// Candidate: current Prime Minister Mark Rutte.
• Labour Party (PvdA): 35 seats /// Candidate: current Deputy Prime Minister Lodewijk Asscher
• Socialist Party (SP): 15 seats /// Candidate: Emile Roemer
• Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA): 13 seats /// Candidate: Sybrand van Haersma Buma
• Party of Freedom (PVV): 12 seats /// Candidate: Geert Wilders
• Democrats 66 (D66): 12 seats /// Candidate: Alexander Pechtold
• Greens (GL): 4 seats /// Candidate: Jesse Klaver

The truth
Recent diplomatic tension between Amsterdam and Ankara has risen expectations for a positive far-right outcome at today’s election. But is that enough? The Freedom Party continues to accumulate voters and seats, although it probably won’t gather the necessary votes to rule on its own. And unfortunately, most parties have expressed little interest in forming a coalition government with them.

The trades
In case you want to position for a populist victory, they you should look into long positions for local bonds and safe-haven assets, and short on EURUSD and iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF.

GOLD
Gold prices edged up in pre-European hours on Wednesday amid growing uncertainty over the Dutch elections and as market participants looked ahead a widely anticipated Fed rate hike.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for April delivery was up 0.09 to trade at $1203.70 a troy ounce as of 07:10 GMT.
Gold traders are currently focused on two key events that will possibly have a huge impact on the metal: general elections in the Netherlands and the Fed’s March meeting results.
The Party for Freedom, led by well-known Geert Wilders, has been showing pretty good results in the latest polls. However, it now stands at second place. Wilders has been described by media as “the Dutch version of Donald Trump” because of his anti-islamic beliefs and ultra conservative view on how the country should be run.
Investors fear that the populist movement will start taking on Europe’s key economies, especially in France and Germany, where such parties have risen in popularity following recent terrorist attacks. So far, about 65 percent of the Dutch voters are still not sure of their vote.
In the United States, eyes will be at the Federal Open Market Committee statement at 18:00 GMT and Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s press conference half an hour later. As chances of a 25 basis points hike stand close to 95 percent, traders will rather pay more attention to Yellen’s words in search for signs of next moves from the regulator.

OIL
Oil futures rebounded from multimonth lows in Asian hours on Wednesday following the release of an industry report that showed a reduction in US crude inventories last week.
US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $48.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 1.66 percent from its prior close. The international Brent crude oil futures rose 1.37 percent to trade at $51.62 a barrel as of 06:45 GMT.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a drop of 531,000 barrels in the week ended March 10, while economists expected a 3.7 million barrels build.
The US Energy Information Administration will present their official weekly stockpiles today at 14:30 GMT. If the fall is confirmed by EIA’s data, oil benchmark will receive extra support.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said on Tuesday that global output levels have recently risen despite their efforts to push them down. Even the group’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia reported an unexpected increase in production to 10.011 million bpd.
On this regard, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said the "difference between what market observes as production, and the actual supply levels in any given month, is due to operational factors that are influenced by storage adjustments and other month-to-month variables."
In other news, investment bank Goldman Sachs gave an extra push to crude quotes by recognizing that compliance with OPEC-led cuts continues to be high.
"Our expectations that inventories will draw through 2017 therefore leads us to expect that Brent time spreads will continue to strengthen with the forward curve in backwardation by 3Q17," said the investment giant in a research note.

Fort Financial Services

Wall Street top three indexes ended mixed on Monday as market participants looked ahead of a widely anticipated interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.
The Dow Jones industrial average was down 21.50 points by the end of the session while IBM stocks were on top of decliners. The S&P 500 rose by 0.84 points, marking a third consecutive winning day. As for the Nasdaq, NVIDIA and Facebook contributed the most to its intraday gain.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.10 percent / 20881.48 points
• Standard & Poor’s 500: +0.04 percent / 2373.47 points
• Nasdaq Composite: +0.24 percent / 5875.78 points

Health care sector came under strong pressure after the Congressional Budget Office estimated that 14 million people would be left uninsured next year if GOP’s American Health Care Act is finally given green light by the Congress.
The idea behind this reform is to repeal the Affordable Care Act, mostly known as Obamacare and which has provided insurance to over 20 million people. The projection also shows that nearly 70 percent of that group will possibly lose their current insurance under a new legislation.
"In 2026, an estimated 52 million people would be uninsured, compared with 28 million who would lack insurance that year under current law," said the CBO's document.
Today, the Federal Open Market Committee is kicking off its two-day monetary policy meeting. By this time, chances for a rate hike stand close to 100 percent, supported by recent upbeat labor data and hawkish remarks from FOMC officials.
The US central bank is due to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to a range between 0.75 - 1.00 percent, marking its third hike in a decade and fueling speculation over a third and even fourth rate move later this year. Focus will rather be on Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s press conference following the FOMC statement.
Tuesday present itself as another light day for economic reports, with the production price index as the only relevant publication scheduled. February’s PPI is due at 12:30 GMT and analyst are seeing a 0.2 percent build for the core index.

Fort Financial Services

Brent Oil
Last week, the Brent oil market unexpectedly broke out from the medium-term channel of $54- $57.30 where oil traded since December 2016. Strong data on US oil reserves as well as stronger USD gained amid expectations of rate hike. This led to the closure of long positions and triggered accumulated stops below the level of $54 that brought massive sale-off down to the area of $53 and $51. In general, the situation can be characterized as the outflow of large speculative capital from long oil positions amid global capital relocation in anticipation of interest rate hike in the United States at the next meeting. Nevertheless, we believe that oil at current levels is strongly oversold and the level of $50-51 per barrel acts as an important strategic support. Some pressure on the oil market will continue from strong US currency, but after the results of the Fed meeting we expect a partial oil recovery. Medium-term longs at current positions seem attractive to us.
Trading recommendations: Longs at levels $50- $52.

Gold
During the decline in the previous week, gold futures reached strategic resistance at $1190- $1195. Throughout the previous week (March 6-10), the gold market was under pressure. Players sold gold on sharply increased expectations of an interest rate hike in the US at the next meeting on March 15. However, as soon as Friday's data on the US labor market came out and surpassed expectations, investors sharply fixed profits, thereby rolling back price back to the area of ​​$1208- $1210. Taking into account the inflation indicators that coincided with the targets of the US regulator, as well as the general positive outlook for the US economy for the coming year, we can talk about three or four rate increases this year. This is the intrigue that the market is going to clarify at the Yellen's press conference. From a fundamental point of view, in the medium term, this is a negative factor for the gold. At the same time, it is not necessary to expect further short-term decline of gold on the factor of the higher rate, the players have priced in the forthcoming event in the prices as much as possible. The overall mood of the market is rather neutral - US dollar index indicates. From a technical point of view, last week's decline set a mid-term uptrend that began in December 2016 ($1120- $1265) at risk. The situation indicates the transition to sideway mid-term trading, where the support level is $1190- $1195, and the resistance will be at $1210- $1220. We recommend waiting for the market reaction at the next meeting of the Fed.
Trading recommendations: Out the market.

USD / JPY
The pair is slowly but surely fulfils our expectations - we were expecting an upward momentum with the aim of JPY116.70-JPY117 after settlement above JPY114.60. American currency was overheated last days and followed profit taking has slowed down the implementation process of this scenario. Nevertheless, the fundamental factors and the technical picture indicate the continued gain of USD/JPY. The news about the interest rate hike can lead to increased volatility. However, long positions on this market after pullbacks look attractive.
Trading recommendations: Longs at JPY114.60 on pullbacks.

EUR/USD
Rumors about a possible slowing of the bond purchase program and that the ECB is considering options for raising the interest rate amid the return of European inflation to the regulator's targets, completely changed the alignment of forces on this instrument. Traders temporarily forgot about political risks and the upcoming elections in a number of European countries. The pair gained in the area EUR 1.0705. Although the prospects for European currency strengthening have increased significantly, we believe that the pair will remain in the range EUR 1.0500-EUR1.0830 for some time.
Trading recommendations: Out of the market.

Fort Financial Services
This trading analysis is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a strict recommendation for action or an offer for the purchase or sale of any currency, future or stock. Publishing the information we do not try or to attract any funds or deposits. We share our analytical view of current market situation and we don’t have any open position in instruments discussed and no plans to open any positions. Any person considering this research should carefully consider the risks associated with this and the level of trading experience.

US markets have been speculating over a Trump presidency for long time now. And let’s face it, it has been a great journey so far. Stock indexes are standing at record highs and investors’ sentiment is just getting better and better.
Most of us know that higher fiscal spending, tax reform and deregulation are at the core of Trump’s economic agenda. But that’s far from all there is to it. For instance, energy has been one of the most faithful sectors to the real-estate tycoon during his campaign. So… Is it Trump a good thing for US shale oil producers? Will prices continue to move lower?
Well… As usual, it’s kind of complicated. First we should remember that crude oil are denominated in US dollars. From that point, we understand that a stronger currency will pressure crude prices as they become less competitive for investors.
"Our companies can't compete with them (Chinese companies) now because our currency is too strong. And it's killing us," said Trump in a recent interview.
Words says it all. President Trump is actually determined to push down the dollar in order to promote American goods abroad, making them more competitive than others. As a result, oil prices could benefit from a wider demand and therefore move higher.
However, the Trump team has shown support to the oil sector by paving the way for Dakota Access and Keystone XL pipelines, which are some of the most ambitious projects and have been under heavy scrutiny during Barack Obama’s term.
In this context, oil service provider Baker Hughes reported on Friday an eight consecutive weekly increase of rigs operating in US soil. The US Energy Information Agency also said that crude inventories grew by 8.2 million barrels in the week ended March 3, beating once again market expectations and adding extra pressure on oil benchmarks.
Some analysts believe Trump’s government is playing on both sides. From one side, it keeps a bearish approach when looking at the currency, but at the same time it bets on higher local production. Either way, a recent study showed that nearly 60 percent of traders is positioned for a bullish scenario rather than a bearish one.

GOLD
Gold prices moved higher in Asian trade on Tuesday following upbeat industrial data from China, while investors await for the FOMC rate decision tomorrow.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for April delivery was trading at $1202.00 a troy ounce as of 06:20 GMT.
China’s fixed asset investment for January grew by 8.9 percent, well above a 8.2 percent estimated gain, industrial production added 6.3 percent, a tick higher than expected, and retail sales increased by 9.5 percent, a full point below forecast.
On Monday, the upcoming Dutch election served as a solid support for the precious metal while the widely anticipated Fed rate hike in March limited gains.
General elections in the Netherlands will take place on Wednesday. The latest polls showed the Liberals on top, with a possible win of 23-27 seats. On second place, Wilders and his Freedom party with 21-25. In the third row, the Christian Democratic Appeal with 18-20 seats.
Market players have expressed concerned about a possible victory of the far-right candidate Wilders. A similar scenario seen in France, where Marine Le Pen is also considered as a threat for current stability and European values.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch program, traders are pricing in more than a 93 percent chance of a rate increase in March. Although the main event tomorrow will be Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s press conference, as investors search for hints on further step.

OIL
Oil prices were trading flat in Asian hours on Tuesday, as market participants awaited for key industry reports and data that could provide some clarity on the oversupply issue.
US West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at $48.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 0.08 percent from its prior close. The international Brent crude oil futures fell 0.02 percent to trade at $51.34 a barrel as of 06:30 GMT.
Last week, both benchmarks dropped sharply over growing concerns that increasing US shale production would threaten the OPEC-led output reductions to rebalance supply levels.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and major oil countries such as Russia have agreed last November to shred nearly 1.8 million bpd in the first semester. US government data showed that shale oil production it’s headed to a new record high, possibly reached in April.
Ahead today, the American Petroleum Institute will publish its weekly report on crude inventories, which usually correlates with official data from the US Energy Information Agency. Crude reserves rose by 8.2 million barrels in the week ended March 3. Now, economists are forecasting a 3.2 million build.

Fort Financial Services

There has been a lot of talking in the last few days concerning the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. But that won’t be the only policy meeting taking place this week. We have put together 3 key events you cannot miss in the week ahead.

United States
Interest rate decision: Wednesday - 19:00 GMT
After a batch of upbeat economic data and hawkish remarks by FOMC officials, the regulator is gathering for a fresh two-day monetary policy meeting on Tuesday.
Last week, nonfarm payrolls for February came in well above expectations at 235,000. Analysts had forecasted a 200,000 build. The unemployment rate matched an estimated 4.7 percent.
Market participants are currently pricing in more than a 90 percent chance of rate hike this month, according to CME Group’s FedWatch program.
Benchmark rates were updated in December 2016 for the second time in almost a decade to 0.50 - 0.75 percent. Now, investors anticipate a new raise of 25 basis points. Following the FOMC rate announcement at 19:00 GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will offer a press conference.
As she has recently changed to a more hawkish pro-hike rhetoric, investors will be searching for further arguments on whether the regulator continues on that path or will take a breather until more economic indicators under Trump’s administration are published.

Japan
Interest rate decision: Thursday - 03:00 GMT
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his team will gather to assess the state of the economy and understand if their current settings need some sort of adjustment.
The central bank is expected to leave all settings unchanged, including its rate at 0.1 percent and the 10-year bond yield close to 0 percent. The bond-buying program is also seen at the current 80 trillion yen/year. BOJ Kuroda is due to speak after the meeting.

England
Interest rate decision: Thursday - 12:00 GMT
Alright, let’s admit it. Nothing like a juicy volatile Fed meeting to shake our mid-week charts. For those who missed the party on Wednesday, the Bank of England offers another relevant monetary meeting to follow a day later. So don’t worry, join the afterparty.
Although, we have to be honest. No changes are expected in terms of monetary policy at this stage of the year. That’s right, BOE officials are still waiting for the government to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and officially kick off the Brexit process.
Please... no long faces. Prime Minister Theresa May has already expressed her intention to fill out the papers by the end of this month. In other words, the fun will probably come at the next meeting.