Friday, 10 February 2017

Weekly Outlook: Feb 13 - Feb 17

Posted by Fort Financial Services at 11:34 Labels:


Monday
Key event: Japanese GDP Q4
If you are trading Asian markets, then next Monday you better keep your eyes wide open. Japan is expected a preliminary read of its fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) at 23:50 on Sunday and the results will most probably weigh on markets all along Monday’s session. Analysts are pointing at a 1.1 percent annualized growth rate for the last three months of 2016. Also, commodity traders will pay close attention to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report, which will provide further data on supply and demand estimations and market balance.
Tuesday
Key event: Chinese CPI + German CPI + British CPI + EU GDP + US PPI
The second day of the week comes with a data deluge all around the clock, starting with China’s CPI and PPI for January at 01:30 GMT. Analysts have forecasted a 2.4 and 6.3 percent increase respectively. Japan will release its December Industrial Production at 04:30 GMT. A bit later, Europe’s first economy will present January CPI and Q4 GDP figures as of 07:00 GMT. The United Kingdom will publish CPI and PPI at 09:30 GMT and similar data for Eurozone will be available at 10:00 GMT. In the US, Producer Price Index is set at 13:30 GMT, with analysts estimating a 0.2 percent build from a prior 0.3 percent. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak before the Senate Banking Committee at 15:00 GMT.
Wednesday
Key event: UK Claimant Count + US CPI + US Retail Sales + J. Yellen’s Speech
Mid-week begins with employment figures in the UK. Average Earnings and Unemployment Rate for December, together with Claimant Count Change for January will be released at 09:30 GMT. Half and hour later, Eurozone’s trade balance for December will also be available. However, investors are likely to focus on US consumer price index and retail sales at 13:30 GMT. The CPI has a huge weight on Fed’s monetary decision and future interest rate hikes partially depend on it, so we could expect some volatility ahead of the report. For January, analysts have anticipated a 0.3 percent build, while retail sales are expected to grow 0.4 percent. US industrial production for January will be out at 14:15, with expectations for 0.1 percent increase. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen is also due to testify before the House Financial Services Committee at 15:00 GMT, regarding the economic outlook and monetary policy. As for commodity markets, attention will be placed at the EIA’s weekly crude inventories report.
Thursday
Key event: Australian Employment + US Building Permits + Philly Fed Manufacturing Index


No… Don’t get excited. Thursday is not going to be any better than Wednesday. Another day full of economic reports is ahead. First on the list, Australia’s January employment change and unemployment rate is set at 00:30 GMT. Last month, the island added 13,500 jobs and the unemployment stood at 5.8 percent. In the US session, traders will keep an eye on building permits and housing starts, both due at 13:30 GMT. At the same time, Philadelphia Fed will release its Manufacturing Index for February, with analyst pointing at 19.0 points from a previous month reading of 23.9 points. No matter if it gets dark, the party will still be on because New Zealand will publish Business PMI for January and Q4 Retail Sales at 21:45 GMT.
Friday
Key event: UK Retail Sales + Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

Finally… take a breather. Friday will be marked by two releases: UK retail sales for January at 09:30 GMT and Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count at 17:00 GMT. The first report will be relevant to understand how the British economy is navigating the Brexit process, while the second publication is key to define the reaction of US drillers to OPEC’s output cut agreement.

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