Tuesday, 7 February 2017
Non-farm failed to raise urgent expectations for hawkish rate hike this year
Brent crude oil
The oil market is adjusting off the medium-range top-level ($57.25- $54). The decline coincided with the US currency local gains. The level of $55.55 is the nearest support and market balance level for specified medium-term channel. Cautious longs from these levels (54.95-55) can be justified. However USD strengthening is a risk factor for oil.
Trading recommendations: cautious longs at $ 54.95- $ 55
Our latest forecast for the gold market came true. Yellow metal futures breached through the resistance of 1217-1218 and updated yearly high at 1235. Technically, the market is overbought. The technical correction due to profit-taking factor is a highly likely scenario. It is advisable to consider longs on pullbacks to 1217-1220 levels.
Trading recommendations: cautious longs at 1220
USD / JPY
We expected a weak Non-Farm, however, it came out unexpectedly strong. Data on earnings growth was weak which in combination with a neutral Fed statement, lowered expectations on US interest rates hike this year. The market consensus - two rate hikes in 2017. However, the US dollar strengthened amid strong US labor figures. We believe that the level 111 is able to stop USD / JPY from falling further. Medium-term longs from these levels look reasonable.
Trading recommendations: cautious longs at JPY111.30-JPY111.50
EUR / USD
EUR/USD pulled back from the strategic level of EUR 1.0830 as we expected. This correction coincided with increased political risk in Europe related to the elections news. The current situation on this instrument seems uncertain to us.
Trading recommendations: out of the market
This trading analysis is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a strict recommendation for action or an offer for the purchase or sale of any currency, future or stock. Publishing the information we do not try or to attract any funds or deposits. We share our analytical view of current market situation and we don’t have any open position in instruments discussed and no plans to open any positions. Any person considering this research should carefully consider the risks associated with this and the level of trading experience.
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