While waiting for the reduction of oil reserves in the US, the price of it is adjusting upward. On Tuesday, crude oil «Brent» was traded at the level of $48.23 per barrel, while WTI crude oil closed the trading session at $45.23, according the analysts from Fort Financial Services.
The API institute - American Petroleum Institute - presented quite important data on reserves. The forecast showed an increase by 102 thousand barrels. However, the actual growth was 4.6 million barrels which is well above the forecasts. On Wednesday is expected the statistical data from the EIA - Energy Information Administration, located in the Office of the US Department of Energy.
Apart from all, oil quotations are also influenced by the information from Genscape Inc. According to this information, the volume of the “black oil” reserves in the Cushing terminal, the largest in America, was reduced by 1 million barrels last week. As usual, the data from Genscape Inc. is released before the official report from EIA and may surely influence the expectations regarding reserves reduction and in the future, as a result, increase oil demand. Also, crude oil «Brent» crept close to the bottom line of the range which lasted for five weeks, and it could trigger speculative interest.
Now, the attention of the market participants is focused on the release of the US manufacturing index, which is expected this week. If the number of the operating rigs will continue to decline, then most likely, the price will rise.
However, according to forecasts, the future oil price will not be high- at least until the overabundance of inventory disappears. The Executive Director of the agency IEA, Fatih Birol, said that allegedly oil quotes will remain at $45 for a long time. Responding to the question about the probability of overcoming the hundred-dollar price barrier, Mr Birol said that probably for several more quarters, it will be low. It should be noted that cheap oil has a very negative impact on the oil companies. As a result, in 2015 they reduce the amount of investments by 1/5.
Meanwhile, commodity producers are cutting production by stopping drilling. As it became known, Royal Dutch Shell - the largest Anglo-Dutch company refused the intentions to develop deep-water fields in the Arctic seas near the coast of Alaska. The company prepares to write-off 1 billion. because the geological exploration has fallen short of forecasts. According to the statements by the company's management, the decision is due to high costs of the project and, as they put it, "unpredictability" of the US law. The fact that the oil prices fell from $115 in June 2014 to $50 at the present time, casts under doubt the feasibility of extraction of "black gold" in remote places which is the Arctic. According to the analysts from FortFS, it is for this reason that some oil companies have frozen numerous projects. This summer, Shell, before starting the project of developing fields in the waters of the Chukchi Sea, said that the costs of finance and time will easily be repaid if the results of geological research will be positive. Shell relies on the area where supposedly there is quite an impressive amount of oil - 4.3 billion barrels.
More information regarding the oil situation may be found on the website.
Resistance levels: 48.40, 50.00
Current price: 47.95
Support levels: 47.00, 45.00
Trading recommendations:
Quotes found support at the level of 47.00 dollars per barrel. In case of the breakthrough of this level, the price will drop to 45.00 dollars per barrel. The nearest resistance is at around 48.40 dollars per barrel. In case of the breakthrough of this level, the oil price will rise to 50.00 dollars per barrel.

At the end of trading on Wednesday oil prices have crashed. WTI oil has dropped to 44.48 dollars per barrel (-2.95%), at the time when Brent oil dropped to 47.75 dollars per barrel (-2.71%). On Thursday, prices of both oil brands started to recover.
It should be noted that during Wednesday oil prices have increased based on the forecast regarding the reduction of crude oil reserves in the United States and investments in the world's largest companies specializing in the production of oil, announce the analysts from Fort Financial Services.
It is assumed that the oil price increase is based on the decrease of reserves in the USA by 1.2 million barrels during the week ending on 18th of September. In addition, European oil company Total SA lowered the targets for volume production of raw materials for 2017. The company announced a minimized investment and moved the deadlines for its projects.
Meanwhile, when the oil price fell below $ 45 per barrel, it was locked in a narrow range. The economic growth in China decreased, which led to a downward trend in oil prices. The oil price has decreased by 25% against the May maximums. Forecasts for the duration of the excess supply in the oil market were revised towards growth.
In September, unexpectedly fell the manufacturing activity in China to the level of the 6.5 years. The decline of the manufacturing activity in China is happening for the seventh month in a row.
A week earlier the Energy Information Administration in the US has reported that six weeks in a raw the crude oil inventories are being reduced. The analysts from FortFS note that, despite the fact that oil prices develop a downtrend, energy resources exceed the five-year indicators by 100 million barrels.
You may find a more detailed information on the website.

At the end of the past week the price of the precious metal reached the maximum of the last two weeks because of the weakened American currency after the meeting of the Federal Reserve, note the analysts from Fort Financial Services.
The precious metal was traded at the price of $1137.01 XAU- for the comparison, on Thursday the trade closed at the level of $1131.20 XAU having raised to $1139.40 earlier. Also, American futures on gold with the delivery in December increased in price by $19.80 and amounted to $1136.80 per troy ounce. The spot market is going to finish the week at a profit, which will be the first after the previous four.
On Thursday, the Federal Reserve decided to leave the interest rate unchanged at (0.00-0.25% per annum), explaining it by the dissatisfaction with weak economies around the world. However, Janet Yellen, during her speech to the press, mentioned that there is a possibility of raising the interest rate this year. The US dollar indicator, against the basket consisting of six main currencies, has dropped to the minimum of the past three weeks based on the decision of the American regulator.
As stated by Georgette Bёle- the analyst from ABN Amro- “gold will raise gradually. If the Central Bank of America will not decide to raise the interest rate in the short term run, the possibility of increase will still influence the market.”
The low interest rate is very beneficial for the precious metal which does not bring an interest income. Representatives of the numerous American banks believe that the national regulator will increase the key interest rate at the end of the year- in December.
It must be noted that, in India this week the precious metal was discounted due to low demand. In the “Celestial” which is the largest consumer of gold, its value is higher than the global standard by 5-6 dollars.
The delay by the Federal Reserve to lift the interest rate increases the demand for gold as the relative price for gold retention decreases and does not guarantee profit to the market participants.
It should be reminded that on the 24th of July the gold collapsed- the metal has reached the minimum level of over five-year period- $1072.30, and the reason for that was the gossip about the increase of the interest rate by the Federal Reserve.
Lately, talks regarding the timing of the key rate lifting in the United States take the main place in the world of stock markets. Currently, the market participants are expecting the next assembly of the Federal Reserve of the USA which is scheduled on the 27th and 28th of the next month.
At the start of the week the price of the precious metal dropped due to the resulting decline in the stock markets and commodity markets. On Tuesday, gold was traded at $1125.00 XAU despite the fact that on Monday the closure of trading was at $1133.10 XAU.
The reputation of the “yellow” metal as an asset with low-risk provides significant support to the market, say the analysts from FortFS.
More information on the gold’s situation you may find on the website.
Resistance levels: 1131, 1140
Current price: 1124.18
Support levels: 1120.00, 1110.00, 1100.00
Trading recommendations:
The level of support is in the area of 1120.00 dollars per ounce. If the bears can push this mark, the quotation will be reduced to the level of 1110.00 dollars per ounce. The resistance level is located at 1131.00 dollars per ounce. In the case of growth of quotations and the breakthrough of this mark, quotations will rise to 1140.00 dollars per ounce.

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Brent oil prices have been falling due to the weak eastern economy while the futures of the US analogue WTI were rising based on the data regarding the oil reserves reduction in the United States.
Another factor that influences oil quotes- are the Asian markets. Japanese manufacturers’ confidence index for the month fell to an eight-month minimum, and is likely to continue to fall due to the slowdown in the Chinese economy. It should be noted that in China, during the past month, budget expenses have increased by 25.9% in comparison to the same month last year, because in such a way the government wishes to maintain the economic growth; however, the Chinese stock markets have collapsed on Tuesday, announce the specialist of Fort Financial Services.
In addition, Iraq has warned foreign oil companies developing fields in the southern part of the country that they need to reduce the investment in 2016, as the budget estimates for the payment of services has decreased due to falling oil prices.
Foreign oil companies, among which are highlighted Lukoil, BP, as well as Royal Dutch Shell and Eni, engaged in the development of the southern Iraqi fields based on the agreed service contracts and receive an additional fixed fee for every extra barrel of oil produced. Because of the worldwide price drop of the “black gold”, Iraqi profits from its sale have dropped making it difficult to make the necessary payments to companies.
The department of the Iraqi oil industry has requested the companies to prepare new budgets and work plans for the next year until the end of this month, and has further demanded to reflect the significant reduction in budget spending on steel, services and equipment.
Forecasters from Morgan Stanley significantly reduced the forecast of oil production in Iraq over the next five years, and are now expecting production decrease until 2020. The country has decreased its own forecast by 60%, in other words, to the level of 5.5-6 million barrels per 24 hours until the end of the decade comparing to the current 3.8 million.
This month, OPEC also revised expectations on oil demand in 2015, increasing it by almost 84 thousand b/d. In accordance with the cartel materials, the rate of the demand for "black gold" this year will increase by 1.46 million b / d. Next year the oil demand will increase, according to OPEC expectations, by only 1.29 million b/d. This forecast was lowered, in comparison to the previous month’s forecast, by about 50 thousand b/d. As a result, the worldwide demand for the black gold this year will be 92.78 million b/d, and 93.99 million b/d next year.
Moreover, this month, OPEC has revised the indicators on oil production by countries not included in the cartel, announce the analysts of FortFS. For example, this year’s supply of “black gold” by countries that do not belong to OPEC will only rise by 880 thousand b/d (while earlier OPEC has announced the supply will increase by about 950 thousand b/d). Next year, countries that are not included in the cartel, will increase their supply by 160 thousand b/d, announces OPEC.
By the end of trading on Tuesday, Brent oil quotes have dropped to the minimum and have closed at over 47 dollars per barrel. On Wednesday, the increase continued based on the information of the unforeseen decrease in the US oil inventory. Last week the inventory has decreased by 3.1 million barrels at the time when it was expected to increase by 1.2 million barrels.
You may learn how events influence the quotes of the “black gold” on the website.
MACD is in the negative zone and below its signal line. The price and the histogram move synchronically.
Stochastic Oscillator has come out of the oversold zone. Line% K is above line %D, and both are moving in an upward direction.
Resistance levels: 48.40, 50.00, 51.60
Current price: 48.03
Support levels: 47.00, 45.00
Trading recommendations
Support is located at 47.00 dollars per barrel. The breakthrough will bring the quotes to the level of 45.00 dollars per barrel. Resistance is located at 48.40 dollars per barrel. The breakthrough will bring the quotes to the level of 50.00 dollars per barrel.

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