Wednesday, 29 July 2015
Market’s attention is directed on to the Federal Reserve System’s decision
A two-day FOMC meeting on monetary policy will take place and with regard to this, the US currency once again will become a leader. On Wednesday, late in the evening, will be published the decision on basic rates of the US Federal Reserve.
On the first day of the five-day trading, the “American” has weakened against the majors, which explains the decrease of interest towards the US currency before the FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, analysts of Fort Financial Services note, that investors’ attention is directed to the Federal Reserve System’s meeting hoping to hear the terms of increase of interest rates.
Last week Friday, the Fed announced the forecasts which will indicate the possible pace of interest increase in the current year.
The decrease of the US dollar against the majors continued. The encouraging data of the States, indicating the level of orders for durable goods could not support the “American”. The interest towards the US currency on the eve of the Federal Reserve System statement’s publication is lowered.
However, comparing to the European and Japanese currencies, the “bucks” rose right before the start of the main event of the week- meeting of the Federal Reserve System of USA.
It should be reminded that Janet Yellen has earlier mentioned the possibility of interest rates increase in September 2015. The Fed chief said that for this to develop is necessary to obtain a confirmation of the economic improvement of the country at a certain pace. Possibly, during the Fed meeting, the causes of interest rates’ increase in September will be discussed.
Analysts of FortFS note the growth of expectations for tighter rhetoric on the monetary policy from the regulator’s representatives after the Fed meeting. In this case, dollar’s position will strengthen. However, the tool EUR/USD, last week, did not reflect the possible perspective. By the end of the trading week the ratio between the European and the US currencies was 1.0985. As from Monday, the euro rose to 1.1089. On Tuesday though, the financial tool dropped to the level of 1.1022.
The market is agitated and expects some responsibility from the representatives of Fed. It is expected that the raise of interest rates will be postponed if agitation does not pass. In this case scenario investors will revise their expectations of tightening in September, which will immediately affect the US dollar. The most suitable partner for the “American” is considered the European currency. Most probably, EUR/USD will show an increase in the short run perspective due to favorable conditions due to a large number of sell positions on the currency and severe signs of a beneficial cooperation between Greeks and Troika. It must be admitted that the difference in the monetary policy of Fed and the ECB will contributed the resumption of the monetary instrument drop.
How events will affect the rate of EUR / USD will be reflected on the website.
MACD is in the positive zone and below its signal line. The price and the histogram move synchronically. The indicator points to the possibility of opening long positions.
Stochastic oscillator is located just above the oversold zone. % K line is below the% D. The indicator points to the possibility of opening short positions.
Resistance levels: 1.1070, 1.1120
Current price: 1.1050
Trading recommendations:
Price drop is demarcated by support at 1.1020. Breaking it through, the pair will continue to decrease until the level of 1.0900. Rates growth is constrained by resistance at 1.1070, the breaking through of which will cause the pair to rush to the target level of 1.1120 and higher to 1.1200.
On the first day of the five-day trading, the “American” has weakened against the majors, which explains the decrease of interest towards the US currency before the FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, analysts of Fort Financial Services note, that investors’ attention is directed to the Federal Reserve System’s meeting hoping to hear the terms of increase of interest rates.
Last week Friday, the Fed announced the forecasts which will indicate the possible pace of interest increase in the current year.
The decrease of the US dollar against the majors continued. The encouraging data of the States, indicating the level of orders for durable goods could not support the “American”. The interest towards the US currency on the eve of the Federal Reserve System statement’s publication is lowered.
However, comparing to the European and Japanese currencies, the “bucks” rose right before the start of the main event of the week- meeting of the Federal Reserve System of USA.
It should be reminded that Janet Yellen has earlier mentioned the possibility of interest rates increase in September 2015. The Fed chief said that for this to develop is necessary to obtain a confirmation of the economic improvement of the country at a certain pace. Possibly, during the Fed meeting, the causes of interest rates’ increase in September will be discussed.
Analysts of FortFS note the growth of expectations for tighter rhetoric on the monetary policy from the regulator’s representatives after the Fed meeting. In this case, dollar’s position will strengthen. However, the tool EUR/USD, last week, did not reflect the possible perspective. By the end of the trading week the ratio between the European and the US currencies was 1.0985. As from Monday, the euro rose to 1.1089. On Tuesday though, the financial tool dropped to the level of 1.1022.
The market is agitated and expects some responsibility from the representatives of Fed. It is expected that the raise of interest rates will be postponed if agitation does not pass. In this case scenario investors will revise their expectations of tightening in September, which will immediately affect the US dollar. The most suitable partner for the “American” is considered the European currency. Most probably, EUR/USD will show an increase in the short run perspective due to favorable conditions due to a large number of sell positions on the currency and severe signs of a beneficial cooperation between Greeks and Troika. It must be admitted that the difference in the monetary policy of Fed and the ECB will contributed the resumption of the monetary instrument drop.
How events will affect the rate of EUR / USD will be reflected on the website.
MACD is in the positive zone and below its signal line. The price and the histogram move synchronically. The indicator points to the possibility of opening long positions.
Stochastic oscillator is located just above the oversold zone. % K line is below the% D. The indicator points to the possibility of opening short positions.
Resistance levels: 1.1070, 1.1120
Current price: 1.1050
Trading recommendations:
Price drop is demarcated by support at 1.1020. Breaking it through, the pair will continue to decrease until the level of 1.0900. Rates growth is constrained by resistance at 1.1070, the breaking through of which will cause the pair to rush to the target level of 1.1120 and higher to 1.1200.
Monday, 27 July 2015
Oil remains near the lowest quotes
Some time ago, the price of oil fell to the multi-month lows. This occurred against the background of not very encouraging statistics on the Chinese economy. As a result, manufacturing activity in the country in July showed the biggest decrease since 2014. Also, because of the glut in the market of oil. However, oil started, finally, its upward movement, announce the analysts of FortFS.
Over the last month and a half, the fall of oil prices by 20% was understood by some market participants as the bear move.
The experts of Fort Financial Services remind that futures on WTI reached the point of 48.13 dollars per barrel. Futures on Brent are traded around 54.6 dollars per barrel. The decrease last week- these were the worst indicators since April 2015.
It can be assumed that this reduction would be the most serious in the past 45 years. At the moment, waiting for the recovery of oil prices is not worth it. Experts believe that their fall may last up to 3 years. To change this situation not even historical precedents exist. Lifting of sanctions against Iran with the prospect of its appearance on the market certainly puts pressure on prices.
You can learn more about market reviews on the website.
Over the last month and a half, the fall of oil prices by 20% was understood by some market participants as the bear move.
The experts of Fort Financial Services remind that futures on WTI reached the point of 48.13 dollars per barrel. Futures on Brent are traded around 54.6 dollars per barrel. The decrease last week- these were the worst indicators since April 2015.
It can be assumed that this reduction would be the most serious in the past 45 years. At the moment, waiting for the recovery of oil prices is not worth it. Experts believe that their fall may last up to 3 years. To change this situation not even historical precedents exist. Lifting of sanctions against Iran with the prospect of its appearance on the market certainly puts pressure on prices.
You can learn more about market reviews on the website.
Thursday, 23 July 2015
The gold market collapsed
The week on the gold market began with a rapid drop in quotations of the precious metal, seriously startling the investors. A few minutes were enough for the pair XAUUSD to collapse to 1067.80 from 1133. After some time the metal managed to play back a large part of the losses. There is a speculation that such dynamics of the precious metal are due to the execution of a large sell order in China, however, a confirmation on words was not received.
Analysts of Fort Financial Services say that there are enough factors that seriously influence the price drop of the precious metal.
The precious metal market is kept on voltage by the approaching increase in interest rates in the United States, which in turn has a positive impact on the US currency. The gold price drop is also contributed by certain stability in the stock market in Europe after the resolution of the debt problem in Greece.
The gold market was negatively affected by the fall of the Chinese stock market. The amount of funds of the market participants remains limited; the purchase of the precious metal is not the best investment for the interest of profit.
Last Friday, the first time since 2009, was published the information on true gold reserves in China which, for the precious metal turned to a strong closeouts. A surprise for all became a relatively small increase in gold reserves in the past six years - only by 57%, which is 1 658 metric tons. Participants of the gold market expected to get the data exceeding the indicated figures. Experts believe that the buyer of the half of the physical gold in the market is China, providing constant demand. Focusing on the public information on purchases of precious metal in China, Bloomberg also predicted inventory levels three times higher than those that were announced on the previous day.
With high probability, the gold reserves are distributed to other national accounts, for example, to the welfare fund of the nation. China is the largest buyer of gold, with relation to this; the country is interested in the price drop for this good. The collapse of the stock market greatly undermined the Chinese economy, but the Chinese authorities still desire to make yuan a reserve currency. In October 2015 it is planned to review the decision on including yuan in the basket of SDR currencies. Until that time, China has to stock up on gold to the limit for a positive result. The period of price drop for the precious metal is the most favorable for the purchase of it.
It should be added that, probably, gold is no longer perceived by financial markets as a defensive asset and it also cannot be called a cash equivalents in a given situation. In addition, in 2011, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that gold is one of the assets, but does not act as money. The ongoing events confirm the words of the representative of the Federal Reserve, besides they reflect the views of the majority of the heads of the Central Bank of the developed countries. However, one more opinion went public, which says that the Federal Reserve and the banks deliberately reduced the price of the precious metal in order to maintain the US dollar as a reserve currency.
Meanwhile, analysts of the company FortFS say, the fact that gold prices have now reached the minimum of 8 months, did not contribute to the additional interest from India and China - the largest consumers of the asset. Probably the buyers took the waiting position hoping for a further reduction based on the strengthening US currency.
How events will affect the gold rate will be reflected on the site.
MACD is in the negative zone and above its signal line. The price and the histogram move synchronically. According to the indicator the opening of only short trades is possible.
Stochastic oscillator is below the 50-th level. The% K crosses% D line from top to the bottom. A signal to open sell positions is generated.
Resistance levels: 1110, 1120, 1131
Current price: 1100.97
Support levels: 1096, 1081
Trading recommendations
The price reduction of the precious metal is restrained by support at the level of 1096. In the case of breakthrough, quotes will continue the downward movement to the level of 1081. The growth of quotations is limited by resistance at 1110. If quotations will be able to break it through, then the growth will continue in the direction of the next resistance level of 1120 and 1131.
Analysts of Fort Financial Services say that there are enough factors that seriously influence the price drop of the precious metal.
The precious metal market is kept on voltage by the approaching increase in interest rates in the United States, which in turn has a positive impact on the US currency. The gold price drop is also contributed by certain stability in the stock market in Europe after the resolution of the debt problem in Greece.
The gold market was negatively affected by the fall of the Chinese stock market. The amount of funds of the market participants remains limited; the purchase of the precious metal is not the best investment for the interest of profit.
Last Friday, the first time since 2009, was published the information on true gold reserves in China which, for the precious metal turned to a strong closeouts. A surprise for all became a relatively small increase in gold reserves in the past six years - only by 57%, which is 1 658 metric tons. Participants of the gold market expected to get the data exceeding the indicated figures. Experts believe that the buyer of the half of the physical gold in the market is China, providing constant demand. Focusing on the public information on purchases of precious metal in China, Bloomberg also predicted inventory levels three times higher than those that were announced on the previous day.
With high probability, the gold reserves are distributed to other national accounts, for example, to the welfare fund of the nation. China is the largest buyer of gold, with relation to this; the country is interested in the price drop for this good. The collapse of the stock market greatly undermined the Chinese economy, but the Chinese authorities still desire to make yuan a reserve currency. In October 2015 it is planned to review the decision on including yuan in the basket of SDR currencies. Until that time, China has to stock up on gold to the limit for a positive result. The period of price drop for the precious metal is the most favorable for the purchase of it.
It should be added that, probably, gold is no longer perceived by financial markets as a defensive asset and it also cannot be called a cash equivalents in a given situation. In addition, in 2011, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that gold is one of the assets, but does not act as money. The ongoing events confirm the words of the representative of the Federal Reserve, besides they reflect the views of the majority of the heads of the Central Bank of the developed countries. However, one more opinion went public, which says that the Federal Reserve and the banks deliberately reduced the price of the precious metal in order to maintain the US dollar as a reserve currency.
Meanwhile, analysts of the company FortFS say, the fact that gold prices have now reached the minimum of 8 months, did not contribute to the additional interest from India and China - the largest consumers of the asset. Probably the buyers took the waiting position hoping for a further reduction based on the strengthening US currency.
How events will affect the gold rate will be reflected on the site.
MACD is in the negative zone and above its signal line. The price and the histogram move synchronically. According to the indicator the opening of only short trades is possible.
Stochastic oscillator is below the 50-th level. The% K crosses% D line from top to the bottom. A signal to open sell positions is generated.
Resistance levels: 1110, 1120, 1131
Current price: 1100.97
Support levels: 1096, 1081
Trading recommendations
The price reduction of the precious metal is restrained by support at the level of 1096. In the case of breakthrough, quotes will continue the downward movement to the level of 1081. The growth of quotations is limited by resistance at 1110. If quotations will be able to break it through, then the growth will continue in the direction of the next resistance level of 1120 and 1131.
Tuesday, 7 July 2015
Trading on the FOREX market - what should be noted. Introduction and main practical aspects
In this series of articles we will try to examine the most important practical aspects of the active trading. These aspects are known to everyone however, their revision is always useful and meaningful. Today we will begin with the examination of the highlights and will gradually proceed to the main “truths” of risk control and emotional behavior. We hope that the new traders will find these aspects useful while experienced traders will be happy to revise because the success in the market depends on the ability to soberly and objectively evaluate yourself and the current market situation, and as many know, this obvious characteristic has the tendency to be forgotten and scattered in the mind of the intraday trader.
- Every time you find yourself in front of the monitor it does not mean that you have to open a position and start trading. This mistake is common among newbies and traders with small deposits. In other words, opening a position or entering the market must not be emotional, as said- you should not chase the market. The plan should be decisive and this plan should contain exactly how and most importantly why you want to enter into one deal or another. Then, you open an order if the market behaves the way you have predicted according to your plan. In such a way you trade on your terms and can determine in advance the risk/ reward ratio. This is very important. You must be ready to refuse to enter the market or open a position if the market situation does not develop the way you expected or planned.
- Sometimes the main job of the market analysis consists of planning the deals which do not end up with a factual market entry or position opening. At first, it may seem that it is a chancy situation to enter the market and everything goes very well, but if the market does not show further development according to your plan, leave this deal, no matter how profitable and potential it seemed in the beginning.
- Enter the market and open positions if your potential risk/reward ratio is at least 2 to 1. For example, if your risk (stop-loss level from entering the market) is 250 points then your profit (take-profit level) must be 500 points. Do not revise your profit target (take-profit level) to comply with the risk / reward ratio, instead, set the level of profit which the price is more likely to reach.
- Every order must have a specified level of stop-loss – limiting your loss but also a targeted profit level to enter (take profit). Working without “stops” is more likely for beginners and it is not even worth mentioning how many accounts were in a loss because of that. Another extreme approach is not doing anything after entering the market – “enter the market and forget”- and allowing the order to close by one of the stop orders; this approach might be good for inactive traders. For an active trading there are moments when it is necessary to interfere and actively manage the orders (“cut” the losses in advance or postpone the level of take-profit). If you practice this approach, determine how and under what circumstances you will make changes to your position. Try to make this before you open the position. This rule of the active order management can be referred to all order types and can help you avoid making decisions based on emotions.
- Finally, DO NOT trade over! Assign the number of trades in advance as well as the volume of a daily loss and profit.
Monday, 6 July 2015
Fundamental analysis for Monday, 6 of July from Fort Financial Services
Based on the results of the Greek referendum where against the measures proposed by the creditors voted the overwhelming majority of voters, European and Asian markets are falling, bond yields of peripheral countries in the Eurozone are growing, while the euro feels relatively stable after a gap in the Asian session recovering to the level of Friday's closing. The euro lost 0.5$ against the US dollar during the Asian session and reached the minimum of $ 1.0967. Against the Japanese yen, considered by investors as a defensive asset, the Euro lost 0.6 percent.
Investors go into the low-risk defensive assets, including the German and US government bonds. According to the muted reaction of the markets and the dynamics of the last week, rightly or wrongly the market believes that the ECB has protective mechanisms and is prepared for the development of any situation more than it was in 2012.
The German DAX has fallen by 1.24 %, the Italian index FTSE MIB lost 2.8 percent. Italy, Spain and Portugal are considered by the market as the most vulnerable economies to the negative influence from Greece. Yields on Italian, Spanish and Portuguese government bonds rose by an average of 8-10 basis points, while the yields of a more reliable German 10-year bond fell by 5 basis points. Thus, we can assume that investors are moving to German bonds to avoid the risk and thereby supporting the euro.
Chinese exchanges traded today in plus after support measures taken by the Chinese regulator after a nearly 30 percent drop since mid-June. The index of the Asian-Pacific MSCI fell by 2.8 percent. Futures on US indices (SP 500, Nasdaq, DOW) are traded on a negative level on average by 0.70 percent and indicate the possible negative opening of Wall Street.
Keep up with our reviews.
The review was prepared by the analytical department of Fort Financial Services.
Investors go into the low-risk defensive assets, including the German and US government bonds. According to the muted reaction of the markets and the dynamics of the last week, rightly or wrongly the market believes that the ECB has protective mechanisms and is prepared for the development of any situation more than it was in 2012.
The German DAX has fallen by 1.24 %, the Italian index FTSE MIB lost 2.8 percent. Italy, Spain and Portugal are considered by the market as the most vulnerable economies to the negative influence from Greece. Yields on Italian, Spanish and Portuguese government bonds rose by an average of 8-10 basis points, while the yields of a more reliable German 10-year bond fell by 5 basis points. Thus, we can assume that investors are moving to German bonds to avoid the risk and thereby supporting the euro.
Chinese exchanges traded today in plus after support measures taken by the Chinese regulator after a nearly 30 percent drop since mid-June. The index of the Asian-Pacific MSCI fell by 2.8 percent. Futures on US indices (SP 500, Nasdaq, DOW) are traded on a negative level on average by 0.70 percent and indicate the possible negative opening of Wall Street.
Keep up with our reviews.
The review was prepared by the analytical department of Fort Financial Services.
Wednesday, 1 July 2015
The Greek crisis has led to an increase in demand for gold
Earlier this week, gold prices rose sharply and reached the mark - $1187.60 per ounce. This is the maximum level of the past 4 sessions. As noted by analysts of Fort Financial Services, the debt problems of Greece affecting the economies of neighboring countries in general and in particular the Euro-currency, spurred investors to purchase this precious metal.
With no less activity were bought golden coins by European investors. In this way the demand for “British Sovereign” grew five times in comparison to the average price over the past six months. This was pointed out by the Mint of Britain in their report to the press.
The Irish company GoldCore Ltd which regularly buys and sells investment gold, also noted a surge in demand for the precious metal earlier this week. Thus, the sale of gold coins in Ireland and the UK has tripled in comparison with the last quarter.
Despite the fact that the "Greek" question showed support for gold, general price trends in the market were fairly quiet. This means that there are still concerns about interest rates in the US which are expected to increase. Based on this the quotes of the precious metal declined on the bidding on Tuesday.
According to the analysts of FortFS the main focus must be on the report of the labor market in the US. Its publishing is planned for Thursday. On the weekend the head of the New York’s FBI said that the overall statistics in the country are positive and in September a rate hike is expected. It was added that such a positive report may worsen the trend of gold prices. You may find the market review on the official website.
With no less activity were bought golden coins by European investors. In this way the demand for “British Sovereign” grew five times in comparison to the average price over the past six months. This was pointed out by the Mint of Britain in their report to the press.
The Irish company GoldCore Ltd which regularly buys and sells investment gold, also noted a surge in demand for the precious metal earlier this week. Thus, the sale of gold coins in Ireland and the UK has tripled in comparison with the last quarter.
Despite the fact that the "Greek" question showed support for gold, general price trends in the market were fairly quiet. This means that there are still concerns about interest rates in the US which are expected to increase. Based on this the quotes of the precious metal declined on the bidding on Tuesday.
According to the analysts of FortFS the main focus must be on the report of the labor market in the US. Its publishing is planned for Thursday. On the weekend the head of the New York’s FBI said that the overall statistics in the country are positive and in September a rate hike is expected. It was added that such a positive report may worsen the trend of gold prices. You may find the market review on the official website.
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