Fort Financial Services

Wednesday, 20 March 2019

Opened sell and buy clients positions ratio Latest data for 20 of March 2019, 12:00 GMT

No comments : Posted by Olga Gorinina at 14:45 Labels: Buy , sell

FortFS

Overview of 4-hour charts GBP/USD, USD/JPY

No comments : Posted by Olga Gorinina at 12:54 Labels: this is interesting , trading signals

EUR / USD

The new trading day the EUR / USD pair began with a moderate decline, being under pressure from the dollar, whose index is now trading in positive territory. According to most experts, local news related to the course of the US-Chinese trade negotiations, as well as reports of new nuclear tests in North Korea, supported locally the American currency, due to the increased investor’s interest in safer assets.

The data on the producer price index in Germany could have put some pressure on the pair, the indicator was -0.1% with the forecast of + 0.2%.

An ECB meeting is to take place today, which will not have discussions regarding the bank’s monetary policy issues, but some possible comments from the meeting participants may have a moderate impact on trading.

The central event of the day will be the FOMC meeting and the final press conference of the Fed Chairman Mario Draghi. On the eve of this meeting, the dollar was under serious pressure, as investors fear a significant softening of the regulator’s position on the further implementation of monetary policy, as well as lower forecasts for the main economic indicators. Therefore, during the trading day, despite the local growth, the dollar is likely to be traded under pressure, contributing to the development of the bullish movement in EUR / USD. The further vector of the market will depend on the FOMC decisions and Powell’s comments.

The price met a rather strong resistance at the level of 1.1360, which limited the further course of the price movement upwards. Nevertheless, buyers still manage to keep the price within the ascending price channel, which preserves high chances for the breakdown of the level of 1.1360 and the growth of quotations in the direction of the mark 1.11400.

Our recommendations: longs from 1.1345.

GBP / USD

The pair GBP / USD on Wednesday is trading with a decline waiting for the start of the EU summit and the meeting of the Bank of England, which will be held tomorrow. Earlier it was planned that on Wednesday a regular parliamentary vote would be held on the Brexit issue, but at the beginning of the week the Speaker of the House of Representatives canceled this vote due to the absence of significant changes in the Brexit agreement terms in the document submitted to vote.

Now the market is waiting for the EU decision to postpone Brexit. On the eve the representatives of the European Union announced that they expect from the UK specific proposals on the terms of the postponement of Brexit and, most importantly, the reasons why the British side wants to do this. Any postponement of the Brexit date increases the risks for the EU and UK economies, and officials fear that at the end of the new negotiation period, the British side will not be able to decide on the conditions for leaving the EU. On the eve the press secretary of the British government announced that in a letter to the EU, the Prime Minister may ask for a postponement of Brexit for at least 3 months.

In addition to news related to Brexit today, data on the consumer price index in the UK can affect trading.

On the chart, after another unsuccessful price attempt to overcome the level of 1.3300, a rollback movement develops. This situation retains as a priority scenario with the development of lateral movement in the channel 1.3200-1.3300. In the framework of this side movements, you can consider short-term longs of a currency pair in the lower range, which can be designated as 1.3200-1.3220

Our recommendations: purchases from 1.3200

USD / JPY

The USD / JPY pair this morning showed a rather strong growth, against the background of statements by the head of the Japanese bank Kurodo about possible strengthening of mitigating measures during the implementation of monetary policy, in case of the price increase in the country weakens. These statements have put strong pressure on the yen, since the softer policies of the central bank of any country always reduce the demand for national currency.

But, in our opinion, sellers can very quickly regain lost positions, because in the future the situation on stock exchanges, where major indices are trading in the red zone, can support the yen, increasing the demand for risky assets. Negative market expectations from today's FOMC meeting can also limit opportunities for strengthening the dollar.

On the chart, the currency pair is now testing a rather strong intermediate resistance level of 111.60, at which we can expect the formation of a reversal and the resumption of the price movement down. This scenario is now considered as the main one and it will lose its relevance only after the price is fixed above 111.60.

Our recommendations: shorts from 111.60

FortFS

EUR / USD

No comments : Posted by Olga Gorinina at 11:47 Labels: fundamental review

The EUR / USD currency pair was able to close the third day in a row with positive trend, but yesterday most of the day trading took place in a fairly narrow price range, with the prevailing side trend.

The restraining influence on the price had another batch of inconclusive statistics from Europe. The ZEW index of economic sentiment in Germany maintained a positive dynamic and over the month rose from -13.4 to -3.6 points, but still remains in the negative zone, which indicates the prevalence of pessimistic sentiment in German business. The index of current economic conditions, on the contrary, continues to decline, for the month dropped from 15.0 to 11.1 points, which is the minimum value of this indicator since December 2014.

The main support to the price is still provided by the American dollar, which is under pressure from the expectations of the outcome of the FOMC meeting. The inconclusive data of internal statistics reinforces investors' fears that the Fed may change its position to a softer one. Bank Of America even suggested that the regulator might cut the rate by 25 bp. against the background of a possible decrease in forecasts for the pace of economic development, inflationary pressure and the number of rate increases in 2019 and 2020.

Fed policy is the main factor determining the dollar vector, so today's FOMC decision and comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell can initiate the development of a new trend not only for EUR / USD, but also for other instruments involving the US currency. Now the market is dominated by pessimistic expectations regarding the outcome of the meeting and the prospects for the movement of the US dollar.

On the graph for the day the situation has not changed. At lower time intervals, the bull trend continues to develop, which so far does not show signs of weakness. The level of 1.1350 became a certain obstacle for the price, but the bulls continue to increase upward pressure on it, which significantly increases the likelihood of a breakdown of this mark. This will be a good signal of further development of the upward movement with a short-term goal at the level of 1.1400.

· Resistance levels: 1.1350, 1.1400, 1.1450.

· Levels of support: 1.1335, 1.1300, 1.1245.

The main scenario - growth to 1.1400

An alternative scenario - the breakdown level of 1.1325 and a decline in the area of 1.1300.

The currency pair maintains a positive dynamics, against the background of the absence of reversal signals on the chart. Therefore, intraday preference is still to be given to longs, which can be already searched at current prices.

FortFS

Cryptocurrency price dynamics for 19 of March 2019, 09:00 GMT

No comments : Posted by Olga Gorinina at 11:55 Labels: Crypto

FortFS

Weekly trading statistics from FortFS 11.03 - 17.03

No comments : Posted by Olga Gorinina at 11:50 Labels: company news , stocks

FortFS

GOLD

No comments : Posted by Olga Gorinina at 11:24 Labels: fundamental review

On Thursday, the gold price fell amid a recovery in the dollar and weak statistics from China.

For several days, the US currency was under pressure from domestic statistics, which were slightly below market expectations. Yesterday, there were no important economic reports in the United States, so the dollar was able to partially restore its position. Since gold is nominated in dollars, the increase in its value makes the yellow metal more expensive for most investors.

China yesterday published a weak report on industrial production, which put pressure on the entire market of non-ferrous and precious metals. China remains the largest consumer of metals, so a further decline in economic activity will adversely affect on physical demand for metals. As a result, at the end of the day, gold lost just over 1% in price, silver declined by 1.8%, platinum lost 1.7% in price.

Today the market is trying to recover due to the weakening of the dollar. USD index is still being traded with a decrease of 0.1%. But, the situation as a whole remains rather uncertain, since the market is currently influenced by some factors that are completely unknown. Investors are waiting for the resolution of the trade conflict between the United States and China, but when and how it will be resolved is not yet clear. Trump said today that the negotiations are going well, but so far they can not unequivocally answer the question whether the parties will succeed in concluding a deal. Earlier it became known that the American side decided to postpone the meeting of Trump and Xi Jinping from late March to April. Therefore, most likely in the coming weeks, the signing of a trade agreement should not be expected.

The problem of Brexit, which investors have been closely watching this week, remains unresolved. Yesterday, the British Parliament voted to postpone Brexit. But the timing will depend on the further results of the voting, which will take place next week. If the parliament accepts the May’s plan by March 20, Brexit will be rescheduled for June 30. If parliament rejects the May plan, Brexit will be delayed for a longer period.

On the chart, there are still more signals in favor of resuming upward movement and further development of a bullish trend that has dominated the market for several months. But, this option does not exclude the possibility of forming a short-term kickback price movement, in order to retest the support area located in the region of 1290.00. Therefore, today we focus on the level of 1300.00. If the price manages to overcome it - we are waiting for growth to 1310.00. If the level of 1300.00 is not passed - the option with the retest of the level of 1290.00 will be relevant.

Resistance Levels: 1300.00, 1310.00, 1315.00;

Support levels: 1297.00, 1290.00, 1285.00.

The main scenario - a decline to 1290.00.

An alternative scenario - consolidation above 1300.00 and growth to 1310.00.

Locally, the market situation remains rather uncertain, although for a longer perspective, the graph has significantly more signals in support of the growth scenario. Today better to refrain from active trading with gold.